Election Night 2018

After a long wait, voters have a chance to deliver their verdict on the first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. With the election tomorrow, history suggests that the Democrats are poised to make big gains in Congress, including the potential for control of the House of Representatives. But unlike ...

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Revisited: Is this a Wave?

In 2017, we analyzed the core indicators of seat change in a midterm election—presidential approval, voter enthusiasm, direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot. At the time, these indicators painted a muddled picture of American political attitudes but showed reason for Democratic optimism. Now just six weeks from ...

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A Quick Look at the Maine Governor’s Race

The Maine Governor's race is difficult to decipher. Here are some quick points that affect the upcoming race: While Maine voters used the new ranked-choice voting system in the June gubernatorial primary, the Maine Supreme Court ruled that this system only be used for federal offices in the upcoming general ...

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The Race for Governor of Oregon

The race for Governor of Oregon is unexpectedly close. Recent polls even cast it as a possible toss-up, though we’re not entirely sure of their reliability. At the end of July, Clout Research showed Democratic incumbent Kate Brown at 42 percent, and Republican State Representative Knute Buehler at 43 percent. ...

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Notes on Arizona & Florida’s Primary Elections

Arizona and Florida held their primary elections this week on Tuesday, Aug. 28. Arizona (with 81 percent of precincts reporting) In Arizona, the most interesting contests were the Democratic and Republican primaries for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, as well as the Republican primary for US Senate: The overall turnout of ...

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What Ohio’s Special Election Means for 2018

Democrat Danny O'Connor sustained a heartbreaking defeat Tuesday night in the special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. The morning after the election, O’Connor’s deficit was 1,754 votes out of 202,521 ballots cast. There are provisional and other ballots to be counted, but it appears that the Republican victory will ...

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7 Pickup Opportunities for Democrats in California

A Democratic wave in 2018 will depend on results from California, which boasts seven competitive congressional contests. In 2016, Democrats failed to gain any seats here despite Hillary Clinton’s more than 30-point victory margin. There are several districts that make for promising Democratic opportunities this cycle, especially given a couple ...

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