Conor Lamb’s Victory by the Numbers and Lessons for the Future

Conor Lamb's victory in this week's special election holds several important lessons for the upcoming general election. Again suburban voters emerged as the key voting bloc for Democrats, and the massive turnout in Allegheny County provides a fresh blueprint to follow. The NCEC provided campaign planning and analytics to the ...

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The Texas Primary Paints a Muddled Picture for the General Election

Attention has focused on Texas this year, following Hillary Clinton’s competitive statewide performance there in 2016. A number of congressional Republican retirements and excitement surrounding Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign (against incumbent Ted Cruz) have led to increasing optimism among Democrats. This week’s primary drew a strong overall turnout, which on ...

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New Census Estimates Forecast Movement of Congressional Seats

The U. S. Census Bureau’s latest state population estimates were released in December. These numbers demonstrate the continuing trend of a population shift away from the Northeast and Midwest and towards the South and West. Not surprisingly, the states with the largest population gains (in raw numbers) from July 2016 to July ...

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What the Virginia Election Means for the Future

Democratic strategists are enthusiastically examining the 2017 Virginia election results, looking for useful clues to guide their efforts in 2018. Despite the pre-election media coverage that focused heavily on the gubernatorial contest, the state legislative contests were the real story of the election. Democrats mounted a surprisingly strong effort to ...

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Virginia Preview—To win, Democrats Must Focus on These Voters

With the eyes of the political world fixed on the state of Virginia and its upcoming gubernatorial election, a familiar scenario will determine the winner. As with all recent statewide elections there, the winner will be determined largely by Democratic victory margins in the key counties of Northern Virginia (Arlington, ...

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Polls in Context—Is This a Wave?

Donald Trump increasingly finds himself in a precarious political position, as the scandal involving Russian collusion with his campaign creeps ever closer to the Oval Office. But the question remains, will this controversy translate into a Democratic wave?

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What an Ossoff Win Looks Like

Early voting has begun in the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District—the Democratic Party's best chance to score a symbolic victory this year. Recent special elections in Kansas and Montana suggest that Democratic voters are motivated to turn out, and polling gives Democrat Jon Ossoff the advantage. But contests ...

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Two Counties to Watch in Tonight’s Special Election in Montana

Statewide Democratic candidates in Montana typically face an uphill battle, and tonight's special election is no exception. Despite news of assault charges against Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist still has significant challenges to overcome. To win, Mr. Quist will have to replicate Senator Jon Tester's performance in key counties. ...

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