What Ohio’s Special Election Means for 2018

Democrat Danny O'Connor sustained a heartbreaking defeat Tuesday night in the special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. The morning after the election, O’Connor’s deficit was 1,754 votes out of 202,521 ballots cast. There are provisional and other ballots to be counted, but it appears that the Republican victory will ...

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7 Pickup Opportunities for Democrats in California

A Democratic wave in 2018 will depend on results from California, which boasts seven competitive congressional contests. In 2016, Democrats failed to gain any seats here despite Hillary Clinton’s more than 30-point victory margin. There are several districts that make for promising Democratic opportunities this cycle, especially given a couple ...

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US Senate 2018 Rundown of Vulnerable Democrats

Florida: Longtime incumbent Senator Bill Nelson is facing a tough reelection campaign, especially now that Governor Rick Scott has officially entered the race. Recent polls have shown Nelson clinging to a single-digit lead over Scott in a head-to-head matchup. Donald Trump’s popularity may loom large over this competitive state, because ...

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US Senate 2018 Democratic Targets

From the beginning of the election cycle, it was widely assumed that the Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada were the only two likely Democratic targets this fall. But the retirement of Senator Bob Corker and the candidacy of former governor Phil Bredesen has created an opportunity for the Democrats ...

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Strong Economy Could Help Republicans in 2018

With less than six months before the election, the Democrats are benefiting from a positive political environment. Since January, six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme—Democrats are over performing. In all six contests, the winning Democrat exceeded the NCEC’s Democratic Performance ...

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More Evidence of a Coming Wave

This week's special elections in Arizona and New York offer fresh evidence of Democratic momentum as November approaches. In all three contests, the Democrats exceeded historical performance—continuing a steady trend that started at the beginning of 2017. Democrats Competitive in Arizona The special election in Arizona’s 8th District was decided ...

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