Virginia Preview—To win, Democrats Must Focus on These Voters

With the eyes of the political world fixed on the state of Virginia and its upcoming gubernatorial election, a familiar scenario will determine the winner. As with all recent statewide elections there, the winner will be determined largely by Democratic victory margins in the key counties of Northern Virginia (Arlington, ...

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Polls in Context—Is This a Wave?

Donald Trump increasingly finds himself in a precarious political position, as the scandal involving Russian collusion with his campaign creeps ever closer to the Oval Office. But the question remains, will this controversy translate into a Democratic wave?

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What an Ossoff Win Looks Like

Early voting has begun in the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District—the Democratic Party's best chance to score a symbolic victory this year. Recent special elections in Kansas and Montana suggest that Democratic voters are motivated to turn out, and polling gives Democrat Jon Ossoff the advantage. But contests ...

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Two Counties to Watch in Tonight’s Special Election in Montana

Statewide Democratic candidates in Montana typically face an uphill battle, and tonight's special election is no exception. Despite news of assault charges against Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist still has significant challenges to overcome. To win, Mr. Quist will have to replicate Senator Jon Tester's performance in key counties. ...

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Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race

Earlier this month, Mitch McConnell radically changed United States Senate rules to force through Donald Trump's right-wing Supreme Court nominee. Invoking the so-called "nuclear option" will fundamentally alter how the Senate works in the future, and makes regaining control of the US Senate more important than ever for Democrats. In ...

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Why Georgia’s 6th District Really Matters

The eyes of the political world are fixated on Tuesday's special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. Many have pointed to Hillary Clinton's performance in the district last November as proof that this is now a marginal district. However, recent and historical results emphasize the need for strict expectation control ...

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Kansas Special Election Could Mean Big Gains for Democrats in 2018

Despite the loss, last night's special election in Kansas shows good signs for the Democrats should the defining characteristics hold through the 2018 election. Overall, according to the unofficial total, major party votes were cast in last night's special election. Republican Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson by 8,195 votes, ...

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Expect Democratic Gains in 2018—But Where?

It's understandable if many Democrats look at the election in 2018 with a degree of foreboding. In the last two midterm elections, they lost a combined total of 76 House seats and 15 Senate seats. But the emerging scandals in the Trump White House and a simple look at history ...

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In 2016, Data Fundamentals Proved Accurate

The NCEC's Democratic Performance Index is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. It should be no surprise that, on average, observed party performance correlates with future party performance more strongly than any other single measure. According to CNN, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) has "...developed a new data ...

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