Expect Democrats to Win 10 to 20 of these House Seats

In August we presented a number of congressional districts that could contribute to a wave election in 2016. The ensuing weeks have brought an increasingly close presidential contest and the congressional battleground has crystallized. Democrats need to win 30 seats in November for a new House majority. Right now, our ...

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Attacks on Clinton Damaging House Prospects

History offers a troubling parallel that should give Democrats pause with less than 2 months until Election Day. In September 1996, control of the House of Representatives was in the Democratic Party's grasp. A Pew Research poll accorded the Democrats an 8-point generic congressional ballot advantage; President Bill Clinton held ...

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A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived

Democrats are poised to regain control of the US Senate in 2016. The ongoing implosion of the Trump presidential campaign has complicated the reelection prospects of several Republicans, especially those in Democratic leaning states. But maintaining control in 2018 and beyond will be increasingly difficult. Democrats need 5 seats to ...

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Yes, the House is in Play

All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with ...

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Citizen Involvement Reduces the Impact of Gerrymandering

Few voters are keenly aware of the complexities of redrawing district lines every ten years. But when redistricting enters the political conversation, there is widespread agreement that a less partisan element should be introduced into the process. One solution has been to establish commissions that include representatives of both parties, ...

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House Prospects Wane as Trump Consolidates Support

The question that will define the 2016 congressional election remains unchanged: Will it be a traditional election, where partisans of both parties overwhelmingly support the nominated presidential candidate (leading to moderate Democratic gains), or will defections and turnout aberrations create an environment for a Democratic wave? Recent polls and political ...

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Trump Thinks He Can Win Ohio, He Might Be Right

The close margin in Kentucky's May 18 Democratic primary underscores some of Hillary Clinton's potential vulnerabilities in the general election (which we raised earlier, after the Indiana Primary). Overall, the race in Kentucky was amazingly close, especially considering how well Clinton performed in Lexington, home of the University of Kentucky. ...

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The Roadmap to a New Democratic House Majority

Earlier this year, the NCEC went on the record with an initial projection of a Democratic pickup of 12 to 15 seats this November. With more than six months left before the election, this remains the most likely outcome and many analysts are wondering what a Democratic wave would look ...

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