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Arizona

Presidential primary: Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Congressional filing deadline: June 4, 2008
Congressional primary: Tuesday, September 2, 2008

President (10 Electoral Votes)

Democrats' efforts to expand the presidential playing field could bring a slight increase of attention to Arizona, but this state is not considered a first-tier target for Democrats. President Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996, but Al Gore lost the state by 6 percent in 2000. In 2004, President George W. Bush carried it by 10 percent. The state would almost assuredly go to Republicans if Senator John McCain gets the Republican nomination, but with his campaign structure in shambles this is very unlikely. However, it still seems unlikely that a Democrat could carry this state in 2008.

1st District - Rick Renzi (Rep)

Eastern and central AZ, Flagstaff

On August 24, embattled Republican Rick Renzi announced that he will not seek reelection in 2008. This creates an open seat that could potentially be very competitive, and an excellent opportunity for a Democratic pickup. In 2006, Democratic candidate Ellen Simon received 45 percent of the vote, but she has decided not to run again. Democratic State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick has announced that she will run for the Democrats.Kirkpatrick received a boost in the race when neighboring district Rep. Giffords officially endorsed her candidacy. Kirkpatrick, a former state legislator, faces a primary that includes broadcaster Mary Kim Titla, lawyer Howard Shanker and Jeffrey Brown. So far Kirkpatrick also enjoys the financial advantage, as her last FEC report shows that she has raised over $217,000 and has more than $173,000 cash on hand.

On the Republican side, State Representative Bill Konopnicki had formed an exploratory committee and was the most likely candidate to run for the GOP, but he announced in January that he will not seek the nomination. Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a conservative Republican who lost the primary to Renzi in 2002 for the then-open 1st District seat is already in the race for the GOP nomination. Two other Republicans have indicated their interest in the race: small business owner Preston Korn and first-term state Rep. Andy Tobin, who said he is considering a run after Konopnicki took a pass on the race.

The first district is the largest in Arizona, covering parts of eight of Arizona's 15 counties.

Rick Renzi (Rep) - Retiring in 2008.
Ken Bennett (Rep) - Former State Senate President
Sydney Hay (Rep) - Trade Association Executive Director, Anti-Tax Activist and 2002 Candidate
Bill Konopnicki (Rep) - State Representative
Kris Mayes (Rep) - State Corporation Commissioner
Tom O'Halleran (Rep) - State Senator
Steve Pierce (Rep) - Rancher and GOP Activist
Lewis Tenney (Rep) - Former Navajo County Supervisor, Businessman and 2002 Candidate
Allan Affeldt (Dem)
Fred DuVal (Dem) - Former Clinton Administration Official, Former DNC Member, Consultant and 2002 Candidate
Ann Kirkpatrick (Dem) - State Representative and Former Sedona City Attorney
Jim Ledbetter (Dem) - Attorney
Bob Mitchell (Dem) - Casa Grande Mayor
Steve Owens (Dem) - State Environmental Quality Director
Jim Pedersen (Dem) - Former State Democratic Chair, Developer and 2006 US Senate Nominee
Pete Rios (Dem) - State Representative
Rebecca Rios (Dem) - State Senator
Howard Shanker (Dem) - Attorney and Community Activist
Ellen Simon (Dem)
Mary Kim Titla (Dem) - Former TV Reporter

2nd District - Trent Franks (Rep)

Western AZ and Hopi Reservation, Sun City

Trent Franks (Rep) - Incumbent
John Thrasher (Dem) - Retired College Professor and Classical Music Conductor

3rd District - John Shadegg (Rep)

North Central Pheonix, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek

Seven-term incumbent John Shadegg may be receiving his first real challenge in quite some time, as attorney Bob Lord appears determined to make this a tight race. So far Lord has raised over $400,000 for his campaign, and has more than $330,000 cash on hand according to the September 30 report. Democrats say that Shadegg will have trouble in the 2008 election because of his voting record, which they said puts the congressman on the side of the Bush administration and against Arizona voters on issues including childrens’ health insurance and the Head Start program.

The third district represents a difficult challenge for any Democratic candidate, as no Democrat has broken the 40% mark in the last three election cycles. John Kerry received just 43% of the vote in the third district in 2004.

John Shadegg (Rep) - Incumbent
Bob Lord (Dem) - Attorney
Annie Loyd (Ind) - Political Activist
Mark Yannone (Libertarian) - Computer Consultant and frequent candidate

4th District - Ed Pastor (Dem)

South central and western Phoenix

Ed Pastor (Dem) - Incumbent

5th District - Harry Mitchell (Dem)

Scottsdale, Tempe, Northeastern Maricopa county

Freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell will get some attention from Republicans as they try to recapture this seat, which they lost in 2006. Mitchell unseated former Congressman J.D. Hayworth by 4 percent. Freshman members will be the number-one targets for the GOP in 2008; and several Republican candidates are lining up to challenge Mitchell. Laura Knaperek, a former state legislator and social conservative has entered the race. If she were to win the Republican nomination the race would be a rematch for Mitchell and Knaperek who faced off in a 2002 state senate race, which Mitchell won. In addition to Knaperek, former congressional aide Jim Ogsbury has entered the race along with Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, and state representative Mark Anderson.

President Bush carried this district with 54 percent of the vote in 2004, which signals that this will be a competitive race in 2008 as Republican turnout will likely be up due to the presidential race. The GOP controlled the seat for six terms before Mitchell won in 2006.

Harry Mitchell (Dem) - Incumbent
Mark Anderson (Rep) - State Representative, Former State Senate and Marketing Executive
Hugh Hallman (Rep) - Tempe Mayor, Former Temple City Councilman and Attorney
Jeff Hatch-Miller (Rep) - State Corporation Commissioner and Former State Representative
J D Hayworth (Rep) - Former member. Defeated in 2006
Laura Knaperek (Rep) - Former State Representative and 2002 State Senate Nominee
Sean Noble (Rep) - Congressional Aide
Jim Ogsbury (Rep) - Lobbyist and Former Congressional Aide
Michele Reagan (Rep) - State Representative
Matt Salmon (Rep) - Former Congressman, State GOP Chair and 2002 Governor Nominee
David Schweikert (Rep) - Maricopa County Treasurer, Former State Representative and Businessman

6th District - Jeff Flake (Rep)

parts of Mesa, Gilbert, Southeastern Maricopa and N. Pima county

Jeff Flake (Rep) - Incumbent
Russell Pearce (Rep) - State Representative, Former State Motor Vehicle Director, Former Police Officer and Anti-Immigration Activist
Richard Grayson (Dem)

7th District - Raul Grijalva (Dem)

Western AZ, part of Tuscon, Yuma

Raul Grijalva (Dem) - Incumbent
Gene Milton Chewning (Rep)

8th District - Gabrielle Giffords (Dem)

Southeastern AZ, part of Tuscon, Sierra Vista

Another freshman member, Gabrielle Giffords, will certainly get attention from the GOP as the election nears. As he did AZ-05, President Bush carried this district in 2004, so in a presidential year Republican turnout could be higher than what was seen in 2006. Giffords won her campaign against far-right-wing candidate Randy Graf by nearly 12 percent, but the GOP is expected to field a much better candidate this time.

State Senate President Tim Bee is going to run for the GOP ending months of speculation. The Tucson Republican has said that he has raised more than $300K for his campaign. However, Giffords will enjoy the financial advantage heading into the race. According to her last FEC filing she has raised nearly $1.2 million this election cycle and amassed in excess of $1 million cash on hand.

The southern Arizona district leans slightly to the right, with registered Republicans outnumbering Democrats by nearly 20,000.

Gabrielle Giffords (Dem) - Incumbent
Tim Bee (Rep) - State Senate President and Businessman
Derek Tidball (Ind) - Veteran