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Colorado

Presidential caucuses: Tuesday, February 5, 2008 (Democrats)
Congressional filing deadline: May 2008
Congressional primary: August 2008

President (9 Electoral Votes)

The last time a Democratic candidate won the state of Colorado in a presidential election was 1992, when Bill Clinton carried the state with just 40 percent of the vote. Ross Perot got 23 percent of the vote that year, which pushed the state into the Democratic column. In 1996, as an incumbent, President Clinton narrowly lost the state against Bob Dole by less than a percentage point. Over the last two general election cycles, Colorado received little attention in presidential politics because it was considered a Republican stronghold. One poll late in 2004 declared the race tied, but that proved to be misleading as President Bush cruised to a 5-percent victory.

In 2008, Colorado figures to be a main target for the Democrats should Barack Obama eventually win the nomination. His overwhelming victory in the state's caucus on Super Tuesday and several follow up polls suggest that Obama can win this state's 9 electoral votes. If Hillary Clinton were the party's nominee it is unlikely that this state would be in play. Below are some of the most recent polls.

Obama's nomination could help deliver a the Senate seat for Democratic hopeful Mark Udall as well.

Incumbent Senator Wayne Allard is not seeking reelection to a third term, setting up an open seat race for the Senate seat in a state that has been kind to Democrats of late. Representative Mark Udall is the favorite for the nomination, but in a recent surprise, longtime Democratic activist Mark Benner has announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. However, given Udall's financial advantage and support from the state party, Benner has a steep hill to climb.

Former Representative Bob Schaffer is the likely candidate as other possible Republican candidates have backed away from the race.

According to FEC data, Udall has a large financial advantage with more than $4.2 million in cash on hand in comparison to $2.1 million for Schaffer. However, despite this encouraging financial news there is no question that this will be a tight race given Colorado's electorate. It is unlikely that this race will be decided by a greater than 4 percent margin on either side, and the most recent polls reflect that assumption.

Wayne Allard (Rep) - Retiring in 2008
Vincent Martinez (Rep)
Scott McInnis (Rep)
Josh Penry (Rep) - State Senator, Former State Representative, Former Congressional Aide and Former College Football Player
Bob Schaffer (Rep) - State Board of Education Member, Former Congressman and 2004 Candidate
Mark Udall (Dem) - Congressman and Former State Representative

1st District - Diana DeGette (Dem)

Denver

Diana DeGette (Dem) - Incumbent

2nd District - Mark Udall (Dem)

Northwest Denver suburbs and Boulder

Democrat Mark Udall is vacating this seat to run for the open Senate seat, so it will be in play in 2008. Three Democrats have announced their candidacy for the seat including State Senate President Joan Fitzgerald and former state board of education chairman Jared Polis, which gives Democrats a strong field of cnadidates to hold on to this seat in this district that voted for John Kerry by 16 percent in 2004.

Mark Udall (Dem) - Candidate for US Senator in 2008. Not seeking re-election.
Joan Fitz-Gerald (Dem) - State Senate President and Former Jefferson County Clerk
Bill Hunt (Dem) - Attorney
Larry Johnson (Dem) - Attorney, Teacher and frequent candidate
Jared Polis (Dem) - Former State Board of Education Chair, Businessman and Philanthropist
Will Shafroth (Dem) - State Conservation Trust Director

3rd District - John Salazar (Dem)

Western half/Western Slope, Pueblo

John Salazar (Dem) - Incumbent
Scott Randall Tipton (Rep)

4th District - Marilyn Musgrave (Rep)

Eastern third, Fort Collins, Greeley

Marilyn Musgrave is a torchbearer for the religious right wing and has parlayed dirty politics, including racial slurs, into close election victories. However, her margin of victory over the past three cycles has continued to diminish. She won by a mere 3 percent in 2006, but many considered that year the Democrats best chance to beat her. A favorable political climate, low approval ratings and the presence of Reform candidate Eric Eidsness, who theoretically was expected to deflect votes away from Musgrave, were factors that put the seat in play in 2006. However, Eidsness may have taken as many votes away from Democratic candidate Angie Paccione as he did from Musgrave. In order for any Democratic candidate to win this seat, he or she must improve performance in the rural counties of the district and maximize Democratic turnout in liberal-leaning Boulder and Larimer counties. This will most likely be viewed as a tier-two race, but an effective Democratic candidate might finally beat Musgrave. Former candidate Angie Paccione recently announced that she will not seek the nomination in 2008, as did 2006 Reform candidate Eric Eidsness who had been planning a campaign as a Democrat.

Musgrave has noticed her declining victory margins and has begun to reform her attitudes and voting habits, which will make her harder to beat. For example, she broke with the GOP and called on former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to resign.

Marilyn Musgrave (Rep) - Incumbent
Eric Eidsness (Dem) - Former Reagan Administration EPA Official, Navy Veteran and 2006 Reform Nominee
Bill Long (Dem) - Bent County Commissioner
Betsy Markey (Dem) - Former Congressional Aide, Businesswoman and Community Activist
Angie Paccione (Dem) - Former State Representative, Educator and 2006 Nominee

5th District - Doug Lamborn (Rep)

South central, Colorado Springs

Doug Lamborn (Rep) - Incumbent
Jeff Crank (Rep) - Former Chamber of Commerce Official, Former Congressional Aide and 2006 Candidate
Rich Hand (Reform) - IT Profesionals Group Executive Director, Musician and 2006 Write-In Candidate

6th District - Tom Tancredo (Rep)

Southern Denver suburbs, part of Aurora, Lakewood

Tom Tancredo recently announced that he will retire from the House regardless of what happens with his long shot White House bid. Tancredo's district is a difficult win for Democrats, as it contains the most conservative parts of Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson County, which makes a victory here unlikely. In 2004, both John Kerry and Ken Salazar ran well below their countywide numbers in the sixth district portion of each county in the district. This suburban district has seen widespread growth, and has remained solid Reupblican. However, given Democrats increased performance in suburban and exurban areas in 2006, there is hope that a strong candidate could make the race close.

Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman appears to be mobilizing for a run at the seat despite the objection of the Colorado Republican Party. If Coffman were to run, Democratic Governor Bill Ritter would likely replace him with a Democrat as the new secretary of state, which Republicans fear.

Tom Tancredo (Rep) - Incumbent
Wil Armstrong (Rep) - Mortgage Banker and Son of Former US Senator Bill Armstrong
Ted Harvey (Rep) - State Senator
Tom Wiens (Rep) - State Senator

7th District - Ed Perlmutter (Dem)

Northern Denver suburbs, Arvada, Commerce City

Ed Perlmutter (Dem) - Incumbent