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Michigan

Presidential primary: Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Congressional filing deadline: May 19, 2008
Congressional primary: Augsut 5, 2008

President (17 Electoral Votes)

In the general election the state will receive attention due to some close races there recently. George W. Bush lost the state by less than 4 percent in 2004. The suburbs in Michigan have become increasingly important, as the populations in the urban areas have continued to decline due to economic conditions, which may favor the GOP. However, improved Democratic performance in counties like Wayne may be able to offset these population shifts. Additionally, numbers show that the education level in the suburbs is rising, which generally helps Democrats.

Republican candidate John McCain is polling decently against prospective Democratic nominee Barack Obama, and there is little difference in the polls when Hillary Clinton is inserted as the Democratic nominee. Obama's appeal among white working class voters has been questioned, but the recent endorsement by former Senator John Edwards and the expected aggressive campaigning should improve Obama's chances in Michigan. Recent polls have Shown Obama and McCain running in statistical ties in Michigan, which could change once the nomination fight ends.

Obama VS McCain

Clinton VS McCain

U.S. Senate - Carl Levin (Dem)

Although Michigan's filing deadline isn't until May 13, it continues to look like Senator Carl Levin will face only token Republican opposition in the person of either failed '02 challenger Rocky Raczkowski or state rep. Jack Hoogendyk. Republicans Andrew (Rocky) Raczkowski, 39, former state representative from Farmington Hills, and state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, 52, of Texas Township, are making final preparations to announce their challenge of U.S. Sen. Carl Levin. Both have formed exploratory committees for the Senate race.

Raczkowski challenged Levin in 2002, but lost by a 61-38% margin. No matter who the Republican candidate is, they will face an immense financial disadvantage, as of Sept. 30, Levin has raised more than $8 million and had more than $3 million in available cash for his campaign. NCEC believes that Levin holds a safe seat.

Carl Levin (Dem) - Incumbent
Rocky Raczkowski (Rep) - Former State Representative, Afghan War Veteran, Businessman and 2002 Nominee

1st District - Bart Stupak (Dem)

Northern lower Michigan and Upper Peninsula, Sault Ste. Marie, Traverse City

Bart Stupak (Dem) - Incumbent
Tom Casperson (Rep) - State Representative

2nd District - Pete Hoekstra (Rep)

Western shore, Holland

Pete Hoekstra (Rep) - Incumbent

3rd District - Vern Ehlers (Rep)

West central, Grand Rapids

Vern Ehlers (Rep) - Incumbent
Michael Sak (Dem) - State Representative

4th District - Dave Camp (Rep)

North central, Midland

Dave Camp (Rep) - Incumbent

5th District - Dale Kildee (Dem)

East central, Flint

Dale Kildee (Dem) - Incumbent

6th District - Fred Upton (Rep)

Southwest corner, Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor

Fred Upton (Rep) - Incumbent

7th District - Tim Walberg (Rep)

South central, Battle Creek

Republican Tim Walberg, a staunch conservative, barely defeated under-funded Democrat Sharon Reiner by less than 4 percent in 2006, which has put this traditionally strong GOP district on the map for the upcoming cycle. This largely rural district has a history of Republican representation, but it may be becoming gradually more competitive as President Bush received a modest 54 percent in the district in 2004. Reiner plans to run again, but the party establishment is backing another candidatate, State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer. Other potential candidates like State Senator Jim Berryman have removed themselves from the primary field.

Walberg won this seat after he defeated then Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz, a more moderate Republican, in the 2006 primary. If Schwarz were to run against Walberg in the upcoming Republican primary it would require Walberg to spend a great deal of money before the general campaign even starts. Walberg spent more than $1.2 million on his campaign in 2006, so the perspective Democratic candidate will need strong fundraising for the race to be close.

Tim Walberg (Rep) - Incumbent
Jim Berryman (Dem) - Former State Senate and Former Adrian Mayor
David Nacht (Dem) - Scio Township Trustee, Attorney and Former Congressional Aide
Sharon Renier (Dem) - Paralegal, Organic Farmer and frequent candidate
Mark Schauer (Dem) - State Senate Minority Leader, Former State Representative and Former Human Services Official
Joe Schwarz (Dem/Rep) - Former Congressman, Former State Senate, Former Battle Creek Mayor and Physician

8th District - Mike Rogers (Rep)

South central, part of Lansing

Mike Rogers (Rep) - Incumbent

9th District - Joe Knollenberg (Rep)

Southeast, Southfield, West Bloomfield

The district continues to grow as Oakland County has grown to about 1.2 million people over the past several years, including several new residents that have moved there from Detroit, bringing an increased number of Democratic voters to the district. The population increase has put this traditionally safe Republican district in play. Republican Joe Knollenberg saw his traditionally safe win margins shrink to just 5 percent in 2006 as Democrat Nancy Skinner gave him a scare. The seat will receive extra attention this year from the DCCC, as the Democrats have successfully recruited top-tier candidate, former state senator, Gary Peters. Peters is armed with a military background, which will make his views on Iraq hard to spin.

The presidential election may also play a role in this race in 2008; President Bush narrowly beat John Kerry in this district in 2004 by less than a percentage point. Knollenberg voted against Democratic efforts to include withdrawal timetables in the funding for the war in Iraq, which could be used as a point of attack, if the war remains vastly unpopular.

Joe Knollenberg (Rep) - Incumbent
Gary Peters (Dem) - Former State Lottery Commissioner, Former State Senate and 2002 Attorney General Nominee
Rhonda Ross (Dem) - Attorney, Chemical Engineer and Businesswoman
Nancy Skinner (Dem) - Radio Talk Show Host, Former Financial Analyst, 2006 Nominee and 2004 US Senate Candidate
Carlyle Fielding Stewart III (Dem) - Methodist Minister and author

10th District - Candice Miller (Rep)

Southeast shore, Macomb county

Candice Miller (Rep) - Incumbent

11th District - Thad McCotter (Rep)

Wayne county

Thad McCotter (Rep) - Incumbent

12th District - Sander Levin (Dem)

Northwest Detroit suburbs, Warren

Sander Levin (Dem) - Incumbent

13th District - Carolyn Kilpatrick (Dem)

Parts of Detroit, Grosse Pointe, Hamtramck

Carolyn Kilpatrick (Dem) - Incumbent

14th District - John Conyers (Dem)

Parts of Detroit, Highland Park, Harper Woods

John Conyers Jr (Dem) - Incumbent

15th District - John Dingell (Dem)

Southeast corner, Dearborn, Ann Arbor

John Dingell (Dem) - Incumbent