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Oregon

Presidential primary: Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Congressional filing deadline: March 2008
Congressional primary: Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Oregon remains a staple of Democratic support in the Pacific Northwest. The Democrats should expect to win this state in the presidential race, but it will receive attention due to the Senate race against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith. The Democrats control four of five House seats, and only one is considered marginally competitive. The general Democratic tilt of the state will make the Senate race a prime target for Democrats.

President (7 Electoral Votes)

Oregon has been the setting for close presidential contests that generally favor Democratic candidates. The state has not gone to the Republicans since 1984, though John Kerry won in 2004 by a mere 4 percent and Al Gore carried it by less than 7,000 votes in 2000. Oregon represents a "must win" for Democratic presidential aspirations as they try to keep the Pacific Northwest blue. At this point, there is no reason to believe that the state will not stay in the Democratic column in 2008.

U.S. Senate - Gordon Smith (Rep)

The Democrats have settled on a candidate to take on incumbent Gordon Smith as State House Speaker Jeff Merkley narrowly defeated Portland activist Steve Novick in a bitterly contested primary. Merkley, the handpicked candidate of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, won the race by less than six percent. Looking ahead to the general election, it is clear that Merkley will need to mend fences with Novick supporters and move quickly into a general election campaign.

Throughout the year, polls have shown that Republican incumbent Gordon Smith is highly vulnerable. His favorability and job performance ratings have been below or near 50 percent consistently, which is a sign of vulnerability. However, Smith enjoys a huge financial advantage, with more than $5 million at his disposal.

The presidential race may have a large effect on the outcome of this race. The Democrats have carried the state in the past five presidential contests. Democratic nominee Al Gore defeated Republican George W. Bush there by just half a percentage point in 2000, but his margin may have been reduced by the 5 percent of the vote claimed that year by liberal activist Ralph Nader running on the Green Party ticket. Democrat John Kerry won the state in 2004 by a four points.

Smith is aware that the political environment is not shaping up well for the GOP, so he continues to try and travel a centrist path. For example, Smith endorsed legislation to provide health care coverage to all Americans. It appears that Smith is in full campaign mode.

Gordon Smith (Rep) - Incumbent
Bill Sizemore (Rep) - Anti-Tax Activist and 1998 Governor Nominee
Alan Bates (Dem) - State Senate Majority Whip, Former State Representative, Physician and Vietnam War Veteran
Eileen Brady (Dem) - Businesswoman
Paul Evans (Dem) - Former Monmouth Mayor, USAF Veteran and 2006 State Senate Candidate
Pavel Goberman (Dem) - Fitness Instructor, Machinist and frequent candidate
Jeff Golden (Dem) - Former Jackson County Commissioner, Radio Talk Show Host and Author
Jeff Merkley (Dem) - State House Speaker, Former Non Profit Group Executive and Former Congressional Budget Analyst
Steve Novick (Dem) - Attorney, Former State Senate Aide and Democratic Activist
Tyram Hunter Pettit (Dem)
John Frohnmayer (Ind) - Former National Endowment for the Arts Chair and Attorney

1st District - David Wu (Dem)

Northwest corner, western Portland and suburbs

David Wu (Dem) - Incumbent

2nd District - Greg Walden (Rep)

Eastern two-thirds, Medford, Bend

Greg Walden (Rep) - Incumbent

3rd District - Earl Blumenauer (Dem)

Portland

Earl Blumenauer (Dem) - Incumbent

4th District - Peter DeFazio (Dem)

Southwest, Eugene

Peter DeFazio (Dem) - Incumbent

5th District - Darlene Hooley (Dem)

West/Willamette Valley, Salem, Corvallis

Democrat Darlene Hooley has announced her retirement at the end of the current term. This Oregon district has been reasonably competitive in years past, as Hooley received 54% of the vote in 2006. An open seat contest in this district opens up a pickup opportunity for the Republicans. Mike Erickson, the 2006 GOP nominee is running, and following his solid performance in '06 he is considered to be a viable opponent. State Senator Kurt Schrader is running for the Democrats. Following a contentious primary, Erickson has the early money advantage with more than $80K cash on hand in comparison to just $22K for Schrader.

Hooley's previous victories may give the fifth district the appearance of being more Democratic than it actually is. In 2006, Hooley won 55.6% of the vote, which is above Democraitc performance for the district. Hooley enjoyed wide ranging popularity as she outpaced DPI in all seven counties. Most striking was Hooley's performance in Marion County, which is the bedrock of Republican voting in the district. In 2006, she won 53.8% of the vote in Marion and has won the county in the last three elections. This performance may be difficult for Schrader to duplicate.

The demographic shifts in the district have favored the Democrats over the past few cycles. For example, the rapid growth of Hispanic voters, which Comprised 10.3% of the population in 2000, has inexorably expanded over the past seven years.

Both Al Gore and John Kerry lost this district in their respective presidential bids, so it is possible that a close race could be in the mix.

arlene Hooley (Dem) - Incumbent
Michael Erickson (Rep)