Wave of New Voters Impacting Battleground States.

The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign. As the GOP did in battleground states in 2004, the Obama campaign has been registering voters at a frenzied pace, changing the complexion of key battleground states such as Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. Getting these new voters to the polls could deliver a victory for Barack Obama.

Democrats Registering New Voters at Record Pace in Battleground States

Voter registration efforts are a part of every election cycle, but the motivation of young voters and the wide-ranging disenchantment with the Republican brand have made this year's effort particularly effective. As registration deadlines approach or pass, it is becoming apparent that Democrats have created a clear advantage, with new voters in many vital states breaking clearly for the Democrats.

Colorado : As we have covered in previous editions of the Election Insider , Colorado is trending Democratic because of the growing population in key counties and stronger pull for Democrats in the suburbs. The massive influx of new voters gives us even more reason to believe that Barack Obama can carry the state. From January to September of this year, 215,000 people have registered to vote in Colorado . Of that total, there were nearly 30,000 more newly registered Democrats than Republicans. This represents an increase of 26,000 over the same period of time in 2004. The new registrations have favored Democrats overwhelmingly in the key counties in and around Denver , where Obama must perform especially well to win the state.

In fact, the Democratic registration advantage extends to areas where Democrats are typically outperformed by Republicans. As the table shows, Democrats have registered more voters than have Republicans in each of the 10 most populous counties in Colorado , including the Republican strongholds of Douglas and El Paso counties.

Florida : In Florida , where Democrats have struggled recently in statewide elections, the registration boom is increasingly important. According to the Division of Elections, more than 430,000 new voters have registered in Florida since the beginning of the year. Of these new voters, 58% are Democrats, while just 24% are Republicans. This surge in Democratic registration has given Democrats the overall registration lead in some key battleground counties, such as Pinellas County and Orange County .

Nevada : Nevada, which has been extremely close in the last two presidential elections, has seen a large increase in Democratic registration as well. The growing Latino population of Nevada will likely help Democrats, as they try to win the state for the first time since 1996. From January through September, Democrats gained 90,723 new registered voters in Nevada, compared to 21,535 for Republicans. These new voters have helped give the Democrats an advantage among registered voters by 70,000 over the GOP. However, winning Nevada still depends on performing well among Independent voters. According to the Nevada Secretary of State, there are more than 168,000 active nonpartisan registered voters in the state. The statewide numbers are compelling in their own right, but the location of these new voters is also worth noting. Clark county, which houses Las Vegas and is the major center of Democratic support in the state, registered more than 72,000 new Democratic voters this year. In Washoe County, which contains the city of Reno, Democrats registered an additional 13,000 voters this year.

North Carolina : The population of North Carolina has experienced a boom since the election in 2004, bringing in new voters as people move into the state. The voter rolls have increased by 500,000 since 2004, an astounding number. Much of this increase came during the buildup to the Democratic presidential primary, which Barack Obama won handily. In the lead-up to the presidential primary, Democratic registration outpaced Republican registration by 190,000 voters. Many of these new voters came from areas where Democrats typically perform well, such as Durham County , which saw an increase of 25,000 new voters, mostly Democratic. Similar increases were seen in and around Charlotte in the county of Mecklenburg , where 150,000 new voters have registered, giving Democrats an advantage over Republicans in this county of 85,000 voters.

Along with increasing registration numbers, it is important to remember that North Carolina has a sizable African-American population. In 2004, President Bush carried 14% of the African-American vote; it is unlikely that McCain will be able to duplicate that number. Looking deeper, it becomes evident that if McCain carries just 5% of the African-American vote, Obama will have gained an extra 100,000 votes.

Virginia : Virginia could be the most important of the new Democratic targets in 2008, and it has seen a surge in voter registration equal to that of the other states mentioned. Overall, more than 283,000 new voters have registered to vote in Virginia in the last year. While Virginia doesn't register voters by party, the majority of new voters are young and come from areas that traditionally vote Democratic. For example, 62% of new voters are under 35 years old and 42% are younger than 25, according to the State Board of Elections. A large number of these new voters are coming from heavily black communities, such as Norfolk County , and from increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia. For example, new voters represent nearly 9% of the total electorate in heavily Democratic Arlington County and Alexandria County . Further, Fairfax County , the most populous county in the state, has seen an increase of 44,000 new voters, which is a good sign for Obama.

Why Registration Numbers Can Be Misleading

There is good reason to be enthusiastic when reading all these numbers, but if these new voters don't get to the polls, then it makes no difference. In 2004, the Kerry campaign expended a great deal of resources in registering new voters, but this failed to make the all-important difference. It is important to remember that in some of these states, such as North Carolina , a lot of voters remain on the rolls as Democrats but continue to consistently vote Republican. There is no question that motivation among Democrats is at its peak, but organizing effective GOTV operations remains essential. That's where NCEC comes in; our state-of-the-art precinct data helps the campaigns target Democratic voters and get them to the polls. We remain enthusiastic about our chances in this election, but it is far too early to celebrate or become complacent.