Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Wave of New Voters Impacting Battleground States.
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign. As the GOP did in battleground states in 2004, the Obama campaign has been registering voters at a frenzied pace, changing the complexion of key battleground states such as Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia. Getting these new voters to the polls could deliver a victory for Barack Obama.
Democrats Registering New Voters at Record Pace in Battleground States
Voter registration efforts are a part of every election cycle, but the motivation of young voters and the wide-ranging disenchantment with the Republican brand have made this year's effort particularly effective. As registration deadlines approach or pass, it is becoming apparent that Democrats have created a clear advantage, with new voters in many vital states breaking clearly for the Democrats.
Colorado : As we have covered in previous editions of the Election Insider , Colorado is trending Democratic because of the growing population in key counties and stronger pull for Democrats in the suburbs. The massive influx of new voters gives us even more reason to believe that Barack Obama can carry the state. From January to September of this year, 215,000 people have registered to vote in Colorado . Of that total, there were nearly 30,000 more newly registered Democrats than Republicans. This represents an increase of 26,000 over the same period of time in 2004. The new registrations have favored Democrats overwhelmingly in the key counties in and around Denver , where Obama must perform especially well to win the state.
In fact, the Democratic registration advantage extends to areas where Democrats are typically outperformed by Republicans. As the table shows, Democrats have registered more voters than have Republicans in each of the 10 most populous counties in Colorado , including the Republican strongholds of Douglas and El Paso counties.
County |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Republican |
Other Party |
Adams |
57% |
8,020 |
1,747 |
5,264 |
Arapahoe |
51% |
17,564 |
3,946 |
4,038 |
Boulder |
67% |
10,767 |
278 |
752 |
Denver |
73% |
26,064 |
307 |
4,353 |
Douglas |
38% |
5,509 |
4,758 |
3,504 |
El Paso |
35% |
12,554 |
9,287 |
9,878 |
Jefferson |
51% |
11,919 |
2,302 |
6,588 |
Larimer |
50% |
7,911 |
3,146 |
5,930 |
Pueblo |
61% |
3,012 |
1,076 |
1,746 |
Weld |
43% |
3,846 |
2,652 |
2,862 |
Statewide |
51% |
121,496 |
36,916 |
56,035 |
Florida : In Florida , where Democrats have struggled recently in statewide elections, the registration boom is increasingly important. According to the Division of Elections, more than 430,000 new voters have registered in Florida since the beginning of the year. Of these new voters, 58% are Democrats, while just 24% are Republicans. This surge in Democratic registration has given Democrats the overall registration lead in some key battleground counties, such as Pinellas County and Orange County .
Nevada : Nevada, which has been extremely close in the last two presidential elections, has seen a large increase in Democratic registration as well. The growing Latino population of Nevada will likely help Democrats, as they try to win the state for the first time since 1996. From January through September, Democrats gained 90,723 new registered voters in Nevada, compared to 21,535 for Republicans. These new voters have helped give the Democrats an advantage among registered voters by 70,000 over the GOP. However, winning Nevada still depends on performing well among Independent voters. According to the Nevada Secretary of State, there are more than 168,000 active nonpartisan registered voters in the state. The statewide numbers are compelling in their own right, but the location of these new voters is also worth noting. Clark county, which houses Las Vegas and is the major center of Democratic support in the state, registered more than 72,000 new Democratic voters this year. In Washoe County, which contains the city of Reno, Democrats registered an additional 13,000 voters this year.
North Carolina : The population of North Carolina has experienced a boom since the election in 2004, bringing in new voters as people move into the state. The voter rolls have increased by 500,000 since 2004, an astounding number. Much of this increase came during the buildup to the Democratic presidential primary, which Barack Obama won handily. In the lead-up to the presidential primary, Democratic registration outpaced Republican registration by 190,000 voters. Many of these new voters came from areas where Democrats typically perform well, such as Durham County , which saw an increase of 25,000 new voters, mostly Democratic. Similar increases were seen in and around Charlotte in the county of Mecklenburg , where 150,000 new voters have registered, giving Democrats an advantage over Republicans in this county of 85,000 voters.
Along with increasing registration numbers, it is important to remember that North Carolina has a sizable African-American population. In 2004, President Bush carried 14% of the African-American vote; it is unlikely that McCain will be able to duplicate that number. Looking deeper, it becomes evident that if McCain carries just 5% of the African-American vote, Obama will have gained an extra 100,000 votes.
Virginia : Virginia could be the most important of the new Democratic targets in 2008, and it has seen a surge in voter registration equal to that of the other states mentioned. Overall, more than 283,000 new voters have registered to vote in Virginia in the last year. While Virginia doesn't register voters by party, the majority of new voters are young and come from areas that traditionally vote Democratic. For example, 62% of new voters are under 35 years old and 42% are younger than 25, according to the State Board of Elections. A large number of these new voters are coming from heavily black communities, such as Norfolk County , and from increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia. For example, new voters represent nearly 9% of the total electorate in heavily Democratic Arlington County and Alexandria County . Further, Fairfax County , the most populous county in the state, has seen an increase of 44,000 new voters, which is a good sign for Obama.
New Voters Registering in Key Democratic Counties |
||||
County |
New Voters in 2008 |
Kerry % |
Webb % |
Obama % |
Arlington |
15,663 |
67.60% |
72.56% |
? |
Fairfax |
44,910 |
51.60% |
56.09% |
? |
Loudoun |
13,015 |
43.60% |
50.07% |
? |
Prince William |
17,970 |
46.60% |
50.51% |
? |
Why Registration Numbers Can Be Misleading
There is good reason to be enthusiastic when reading all these numbers, but if these new voters don't get to the polls, then it makes no difference. In 2004, the Kerry campaign expended a great deal of resources in registering new voters, but this failed to make the all-important difference. It is important to remember that in some of these states, such as North Carolina , a lot of voters remain on the rolls as Democrats but continue to consistently vote Republican. There is no question that motivation among Democrats is at its peak, but organizing effective GOTV operations remains essential. That's where NCEC comes in; our state-of-the-art precinct data helps the campaigns target Democratic voters and get them to the polls. We remain enthusiastic about our chances in this election, but it is far too early to celebrate or become complacent.
