NCEC House Race Report: Democrats Could Win 20-30 Seats

When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts. It appears, however, that line of thinking may have been premature. As it stands today, Democrats could potentially win as many as 30 seats in the House in an incredible repeat. While the more likely number falls between 17 and 25, 30 is not impossible, given the sheer number of competitive races. Should the current political environment hold, Democrats may firmly reinforce our majority in the House of Representatives.

A Wealth of Open Seats Produces Opportunities

The power of incumbency cannot be overstated, as more than 90% of incumbents are typically reelected every cycle. In fact, even in years of extreme change, such as 1994 and 2006, incumbents were still reelected at a rate near or above 90%. The majority of the seat switches come from open contests, making open seats unpredictable. In 2008, Democrats captured 8 Republican open seats.

This precedent paints a positive picture for Democrats in the upcoming election, given the rash of Republican retirements this cycle. In fact, NCEC lists 19 Republican open seats as tier-one targets this cycle. The majority of Democratic pickups should come from this collection of open seats.

Many Republican Incumbents in Danger as Well

While open seats are the most likely to flip, there is a large number of Republican incumbents in danger as the Republican brand name deteriorates. Below is a list of some of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents as the election approaches.

NCEC Provides Precinct Targeting to House and Senate Candidates All over the Country and Work Continues

NCEC precinct targeting is a tool used to level the playing field, providing candidates with critical information used to get out the vote in districts all over the country. Our data shows campaigns where Democrats are, down to the precinct level, and provides other information such as expected vote, voter persuasion, and media market analysis. This information can make the difference between victory and defeat.

So far, we have allocated our precinct targeting to more than 190 House candidates and 25 Senate candidates. Our recipients range from the tier-one target races to the underfunded candidates taking on entrenched incumbents. Our targeting comes to them at no charge, as an in-kind contribution. The generosity of our donors allows our work to continue; a contribution to NCEC is one worth making, as our work makes a difference. Our work will continue through the last day of the election, as we help campaigns utilize our expertise and turn out every possible voter. The wind is blowing in our direction, but we dare not take it for granted. Please contribute one last time.