Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Can Democrats Get to 60?
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term. However, with two weeks until Election Day, the Democrats have that chance in front of them. As things stand today, 10 Republican seats are legitimate targets for the Democrats, offering the opportunity for an unprecedented follow-up to the six-seat gain in 2006.
Current Majority Is Too Small to Overcome Republican Filibusters
Presently, the Democrats control the Senate by the thinnest of margins; control arises only because Independent candidates Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders caucus with the Democrats, giving them a two-seat advantage. Given that 60 votes are required to cut off debate in the Senate, the current majority is simply too small. From the moment the Democrats took control of the Senate, the Republicans have been waging a historic campaign of obstruction, executing a record number of filibusters. These filibusters have prevented the Democratic Congress from addressing some of the most pressing issues that face our country, such as the economic meltdown, the energy crisis, and the war in Iraq . These tactics are clearly political, designed to help the Republicans regain power. However, their strategy has backfired, and the pro-Democrat political environment has been sustained. This positive environment, coupled with some timely GOP retirements, has produced an unprecedented opportunity for the Democrats. In order to overcome the threat of Republican filibusters, Democrats need to win nine Senate seats (or 10, depending on the future of Joe Lieberman). Currently, NCEC labels 10 Republican seats as possible targets; if the momentum stays with the Democrats, reaching 60 is very possible.
Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats) |
New Mexico ( Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce ), Virginia ( Mark Warner vs. Jim Gilmore ) |
Likely Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats) |
Colorado ( Mark Udall vs. Bob Schaffer ), New Hampshire ( JOHN SUNUNU vs. Jeanne Shaheen ) |
Leaning Blue (2 GOP Seats) |
North Carolina ( ELIZABETH DOLE vs. Kay Hagan ), Oregon ( GORDON SMITH vs. Jeff Merkley ) |
True Toss-up (3 GOP Seats) |
Alaska ( TED STEVENS vs. Mark Begich ), Georgia ( SAXBY CHAMBLISS vs. Jim Martin ), Minnesota ( NORM COLEMAN vs. Al Franken ) |
Likely Blue (1 Dem Seat) |
Louisiana ( MARY LANDRIEU vs. John Kennedy ) |
Safe Democratic (11 Dem Seats) |
Arkansas ( MARK PRYOR vs. no GOP opponent ), Delaware ( JOE BIDEN vs. Christine O'Donnell ), Illinois ( DICK DURBIN vs. Steve Sauerberg ), Iowa ( TOM HARKIN vs. Christopher Reed ), Massachusetts ( JOHN KERRY vs. Jeff Beatty ), Michigan ( CARL LEVIN vs. Jack Hoogendyk ), Montana ( MAX BAUCUS vs. Bob Kelleher ), New Jersey ( FRANK LAUTENBERG vs. Dick Zimmer ), Rhode Island ( JACK REED vs. Robert Tingle ), South Dakota ( TIM JOHNSON vs. Joel Dykstra ), West Virginia ( JAY ROCKEFELLER vs. Jay Wolfe ) |
Leaning Red (2 GOP Seats) |
Kentucky ( MITCH MCCONNELL vs. Bruce Lunsford ), Mississippi special ( ROGER WICKER vs. Ronnie Musgrove ) |
Safe Red (12 GOP Seats) |
Alabama ( JEFF SESSIONS vs. Vivian Davis Figures ), Idaho ( Larry LaRocco vs. Jim Risch ), Kansas ( PAT ROBERTS vs. Jim Slattery ), Maine ( SUSAN COLLINS vs. Tom Allen ), Mississippi ( THAD COCHRAN vs. Erik Fleming ), Nebraska ( Scott Kleeb vs. Mike Johanns ), Oklahoma ( JIM INHOFE vs. Andrew Rice ), South Carolina ( LINDSEY GRAHAM vs. Bob Conley ), Tennessee ( LAMAR ALEXANDER vs. Bob Tuke ), Texas ( JOHN CORNYN vs. Rick Noriega ), Wyoming ( MIKE ENZI vs. Chris Rothfuss ), Wyoming special ( JOHN BARRASSO vs. Nick Carter ) |
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Incumbents in CAPS, Democrats in blue , Republicans in red |
Two Seats Already Going Blue
New Mexico : Ever since Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire, this seat has been safely in Democratic hands. Democratic candidate Tom Udall has been running away with this race since he joined the campaign. There is little to no chance that Republican Steve Pearce can win this race; an average of recent polls gives Udall a 16-point advantage, which has held steady throughout.
Virginia : When popular former governor Mark Warner decided to get in this race following the retirement of longtime Republican senator John Warner, this seat was as good as won for the Democrats. Mark Warner's popularity in all areas of Virginia was just too much for Republican candidate Jim Gilmore to overcome. Should Barack Obama win here, Virginia , the state will have completed its metamorphosis into a Democratic state.
Likely to Go Blue
Colorado : Much like Virginia , Colorado has been going through a political shift since the '04 election. The updated voter registration numbers for the '08 election show this trend continuing. Democrats are registering new voters at a much higher rate than Republicans, all over the state. Democrat Mark Udall has been holding a steady lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, but the polls have become close at certain times in the campaign, so this race is far from decided. Statewide elections in Colorado are rarely decided by more than 3-4 percent, so we expect this race to remain close through Election Day.
New Hampshire : Months ago it seemed that this race would easily be placed in the previous category, but the polls have closed since then. In every poll taken, however, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen still leads over Republican John Sununu.
Leaning Blue
North Carolina : North Carolina has quietly been undergoing a Democratic shift over the past four years, as Democratic voter registration has outpaced Republican registration by 190,000 since 2004. These developments have put Elizabeth Dole in real danger of losing her seat to Democrat Kay Hagan. The polling has been extremely tight in this race throughout, but no public poll since mid-September has had Dole out in front. The presence of Libertarian candidate Chris Cole has been particularly damaging for Dole in the polling, because he is receiving 3-5 percent of votes. Should Cole's poll numbers be accurate, it could have a devastating impact on Dole's chances.
Oregon : Republican Gordon Smith has been dealing with an especially difficult political environment this year, because his state has a natural Democratic tilt to it even without the toxic political environment. In order to distance himself from the GOP, Smith has gone so far as to point out examples where he has sided with Barack Obama. For the first few months of the race it appeared that Smith had achieved his goal, as he maintained a small lead. However, over the past month, the polls have shown that Democratic candidate Jeff Merkley has jumped ahead and is pulling away.
The True Toss-ups
Alaska : The closing arguments have been made in the corruption trial of longtime Alaska senator Ted Stevens, but like the trial, his political career may be coming to a close. While Stevens has been bogged down with his legal troubles, Democrat Mark Begich has been campaigning hard for the seat. However, recent polling shows that the race has narrowed to a statistical tie, leading some to believe that it could hinge on the verdict in Stevens' corruption trial.
Georgia : This race has transformed over the last two months from an easy Republican hold to a true toss-up. The high Democratic turnout, and specifically the African-American turnout, seen in the early voting makes us even more confident that this race is winnable, as Democrat Jim Martin could ride Barack Obama's coattails to victory. Recent polls show this race in a statistical tie. Early voting lines in Georgia have been up to three hours long, so turnout is expected to be massive in comparison to previous years.
Minnesota : A few months ago it seemed that this race was getting away from Democrat Al Franken, but polling shows that Franken has come back and made this race a true toss-up against Republican Norm Coleman. Similar to North Carolina , the outcome of this race could depend on the third-party candidate. Former U.S. senator Dean Barkley has made this race especially hard to judge, because polling has shown him taking as much as 18 percent of the vote. Both Coleman and Franken have been leading in polls where Barkley took this significant share, so it is difficult to say who is being hurt more by his candidacy. The suburbs in and around the twin cities, such as Dakota, Scott, and Wright counties, will be especially vital in this election. These suburban areas helped deliver some Republican success in Minnesota in 2002.
Leaning Red
Kentucky : Mitch McConnell's position as minority leader in the Senate puts him at the head of an unpopular party and makes him immediately vulnerable. Democrat Bruce Lunsford has been running a close campaign with McConnell for months, and the polls have remained tight with McConnell clinging to a small lead. High voter turnout in Jefferson County , where the city of Louisville is located, will be a key determinant in this race. The most recent poll showed the race tied at 48 percent.
Mississippi : The Democrats' victory earlier this year in the Mississippi special election is evidence that Democrats can win in this state. The special election victory was powered by high turnout, but also by the Democratic candidate's ability to attract votes from rural portions of the state. Democrat Ronnie Musgrove will be aided by a higher than usual black turnout, but in order to win, he'll need to duplicate the success in the rural areas that helped win the special election. As of now, the polls are showing a statistical tie, but the GOP has a natural advantage in this state.
