Can Democrats Get to 60?

At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term. However, with two weeks until Election Day, the Democrats have that chance in front of them. As things stand today, 10 Republican seats are legitimate targets for the Democrats, offering the opportunity for an unprecedented follow-up to the six-seat gain in 2006.

Current Majority Is Too Small to Overcome Republican Filibusters

Presently, the Democrats control the Senate by the thinnest of margins; control arises only because Independent candidates Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders caucus with the Democrats, giving them a two-seat advantage. Given that 60 votes are required to cut off debate in the Senate, the current majority is simply too small. From the moment the Democrats took control of the Senate, the Republicans have been waging a historic campaign of obstruction, executing a record number of filibusters. These filibusters have prevented the Democratic Congress from addressing some of the most pressing issues that face our country, such as the economic meltdown, the energy crisis, and the war in Iraq . These tactics are clearly political, designed to help the Republicans regain power. However, their strategy has backfired, and the pro-Democrat political environment has been sustained. This positive environment, coupled with some timely GOP retirements, has produced an unprecedented opportunity for the Democrats. In order to overcome the threat of Republican filibusters, Democrats need to win nine Senate seats (or 10, depending on the future of Joe Lieberman). Currently, NCEC labels 10 Republican seats as possible targets; if the momentum stays with the Democrats, reaching 60 is very possible.

Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats)	New Mexico ( Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce ), Virginia ( Mark Warner vs. Jim Gilmore )
Likely Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats)	Colorado ( Mark Udall vs. Bob Schaffer ), New Hampshire ( JOHN SUNUNU vs. Jeanne Shaheen )
Leaning Blue (2 GOP Seats)	North Carolina ( ELIZABETH DOLE vs. Kay Hagan ), Oregon ( GORDON SMITH vs. Jeff Merkley )
True Toss-up (3 GOP Seats)	Alaska ( TED STEVENS vs. Mark Begich ), Georgia ( SAXBY CHAMBLISS vs. Jim Martin ), Minnesota ( NORM COLEMAN vs. Al Franken )
Likely Blue (1 Dem Seat)	Louisiana ( MARY LANDRIEU vs. John Kennedy )
Safe Democratic (11 Dem Seats)	Arkansas ( MARK PRYOR vs. no GOP opponent ), Delaware ( JOE BIDEN vs. Christine O'Donnell ), Illinois ( DICK DURBIN vs. Steve Sauerberg ), Iowa ( TOM HARKIN vs. Christopher Reed ), Massachusetts ( JOHN KERRY vs. Jeff Beatty ), Michigan ( CARL LEVIN vs. Jack Hoogendyk ), Montana ( MAX BAUCUS vs. Bob Kelleher ), New Jersey ( FRANK LAUTENBERG vs. Dick Zimmer ), Rhode Island ( JACK REED vs. Robert Tingle ), South Dakota ( TIM JOHNSON vs. Joel Dykstra ), West Virginia ( JAY ROCKEFELLER vs. Jay Wolfe )
Leaning Red (2 GOP Seats)	Kentucky ( MITCH MCCONNELL vs. Bruce Lunsford ), Mississippi special ( ROGER WICKER vs. Ronnie Musgrove )
Safe Red (12 GOP Seats)	Alabama ( JEFF SESSIONS vs. Vivian Davis Figures ), Idaho ( Larry LaRocco vs. Jim Risch ), Kansas ( PAT ROBERTS vs. Jim Slattery ), Maine ( SUSAN COLLINS vs. Tom Allen ), Mississippi ( THAD COCHRAN vs. Erik Fleming ), Nebraska ( Scott Kleeb vs. Mike Johanns ), Oklahoma ( JIM INHOFE vs. Andrew Rice ), South Carolina ( LINDSEY GRAHAM vs. Bob Conley ), Tennessee ( LAMAR ALEXANDER vs. Bob Tuke ), Texas ( JOHN CORNYN vs. Rick Noriega ), Wyoming ( MIKE ENZI vs. Chris Rothfuss ), Wyoming special ( JOHN BARRASSO vs. Nick Carter )
	Incumbents in CAPS, Democrats in blue , Republicans in red

 

Two Seats Already Going Blue

New Mexico : Ever since Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire, this seat has been safely in Democratic hands. Democratic candidate Tom Udall has been running away with this race since he joined the campaign. There is little to no chance that Republican Steve Pearce can win this race; an average of recent polls gives Udall a 16-point advantage, which has held steady throughout.

Virginia : When popular former governor Mark Warner decided to get in this race following the retirement of longtime Republican senator John Warner, this seat was as good as won for the Democrats. Mark Warner's popularity in all areas of Virginia was just too much for Republican candidate Jim Gilmore to overcome. Should Barack Obama win here, Virginia , the state will have completed its metamorphosis into a Democratic state.

Likely to Go Blue

Colorado : Much like Virginia , Colorado has been going through a political shift since the '04 election. The updated voter registration numbers for the '08 election show this trend continuing. Democrats are registering new voters at a much higher rate than Republicans, all over the state. Democrat Mark Udall has been holding a steady lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, but the polls have become close at certain times in the campaign, so this race is far from decided. Statewide elections in Colorado are rarely decided by more than 3-4 percent, so we expect this race to remain close through Election Day.

New Hampshire : Months ago it seemed that this race would easily be placed in the previous category, but the polls have closed since then. In every poll taken, however, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen still leads over Republican John Sununu.

Leaning Blue

North Carolina : North Carolina has quietly been undergoing a Democratic shift over the past four years, as Democratic voter registration has outpaced Republican registration by 190,000 since 2004. These developments have put Elizabeth Dole in real danger of losing her seat to Democrat Kay Hagan. The polling has been extremely tight in this race throughout, but no public poll since mid-September has had Dole out in front. The presence of Libertarian candidate Chris Cole has been particularly damaging for Dole in the polling, because he is receiving 3-5 percent of votes. Should Cole's poll numbers be accurate, it could have a devastating impact on Dole's chances.

Oregon : Republican Gordon Smith has been dealing with an especially difficult political environment this year, because his state has a natural Democratic tilt to it even without the toxic political environment. In order to distance himself from the GOP, Smith has gone so far as to point out examples where he has sided with Barack Obama. For the first few months of the race it appeared that Smith had achieved his goal, as he maintained a small lead. However, over the past month, the polls have shown that Democratic candidate Jeff Merkley has jumped ahead and is pulling away.

The True Toss-ups

Alaska : The closing arguments have been made in the corruption trial of longtime Alaska senator Ted Stevens, but like the trial, his political career may be coming to a close. While Stevens has been bogged down with his legal troubles, Democrat Mark Begich has been campaigning hard for the seat. However, recent polling shows that the race has narrowed to a statistical tie, leading some to believe that it could hinge on the verdict in Stevens' corruption trial.

Georgia : This race has transformed over the last two months from an easy Republican hold to a true toss-up. The high Democratic turnout, and specifically the African-American turnout, seen in the early voting makes us even more confident that this race is winnable, as Democrat Jim Martin could ride Barack Obama's coattails to victory. Recent polls show this race in a statistical tie. Early voting lines in Georgia have been up to three hours long, so turnout is expected to be massive in comparison to previous years.

Minnesota : A few months ago it seemed that this race was getting away from Democrat Al Franken, but polling shows that Franken has come back and made this race a true toss-up against Republican Norm Coleman. Similar to North Carolina , the outcome of this race could depend on the third-party candidate. Former U.S. senator Dean Barkley has made this race especially hard to judge, because polling has shown him taking as much as 18 percent of the vote. Both Coleman and Franken have been leading in polls where Barkley took this significant share, so it is difficult to say who is being hurt more by his candidacy. The suburbs in and around the twin cities, such as Dakota, Scott, and Wright counties, will be especially vital in this election. These suburban areas helped deliver some Republican success in Minnesota in 2002.

Leaning Red

Kentucky : Mitch McConnell's position as minority leader in the Senate puts him at the head of an unpopular party and makes him immediately vulnerable. Democrat Bruce Lunsford has been running a close campaign with McConnell for months, and the polls have remained tight with McConnell clinging to a small lead. High voter turnout in Jefferson County , where the city of Louisville is located, will be a key determinant in this race. The most recent poll showed the race tied at 48 percent.

Mississippi : The Democrats' victory earlier this year in the Mississippi special election is evidence that Democrats can win in this state. The special election victory was powered by high turnout, but also by the Democratic candidate's ability to attract votes from rural portions of the state. Democrat Ronnie Musgrove will be aided by a higher than usual black turnout, but in order to win, he'll need to duplicate the success in the rural areas that helped win the special election. As of now, the polls are showing a statistical tie, but the GOP has a natural advantage in this state.