Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Frankens long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
A Year Away From Election Day, Americans Favor Democrats.
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party. Bush's actions, together with the public's desire for a return to effective government, could land a Democrat in the White House. While it is true that approval ratings for the Democratic Congress are also low, this dissatisfaction is not translating into Republican votes. Recent polls have shown Independent voters continue to favor Democrats. This is crucial. As the highly foreshortened presidential primary season begins, it is clear that Iowa will be immensely important in determining the direction of the presidential race. Hillary Clinton is maintaining a strong lead in national polls, but a disappointing performance in Iowa could change everything.
Independents Support Democrat for President
Republican strategists, analyzing the presidential race, routinely point to low congressional approval ratings as proof that people are angry with Democrats and are shifting back toward the GOP. This is in accurate. Americans are dissatisfied with the direction our government is taking on most issues, but they blame Republicans and, more importantly, President Bush more than Democrats. Bush's low approval ratings will have a much greater effect on election prospects than that of congressional ratings.
The July 11 edition of the NCEC Election Insider focused on the growing Independent population and its importance in elections at all levels of government. In 2004, nearly 40 percent of the population identified themselves as Independent. As the graph below shows, Independents usually side with the eventual winner of the presidential election. However, 2004 was unique in this respect: John Kerry narrowly outpaced President Bush among Independents by a single percentage point. Though Kerry did win a slight majority of the Independent vote, his margin of victory was significantly smaller than that of other candidates who have gone on to win the presidency.
Democratic fortunes among Independents have improved since 2004; the latest NPR poll shows that, if the election were held today, the Democratic margin of victory among Independents would be considerable. According to the poll, Independents support the generic Democratic candidate for president over the generic Republican candidate by 14 percent. The importance of the Independent vote cannot be overstated: the entire electorate prefers the Democratic candidate by 13 percent. As the Independents go, so goes the presidency.
Bush Policies Hurting GOP Election Prospects
President Bush continues to turn a deaf ear to the wishes of the American people. His actions will likely cost his party dearly. For example, Bush's recent veto of the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) extension (which the Democratic Congress failed to override) was supported by Democrats and Republicans alike. The Bush veto was not well received by the public; a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll from October 17 showed that 61 percent of Americans supported a congressional override of the SCHIP veto. President Bush and his Republican allies in Congress are on the wrong side of most issues, according to the American people. The NPR poll shows that the public supports the Democratic positions on the war in Iraq , the economy, health care, taxes, the budget, and ethics in Washington . Americans continue to support Republicans on one issue, terrorism. On this issue, Republican support outweighs Democratic support by 1 percent.
Democratic Candidate Leads in Trial Heats
While the NPR poll shows the generic Democratic candidate 13 percent ahead, the race narrows when specific candidates are mentioned. If the race were to boil down to the two current front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, the Democratic lead shrinks to just 3 percent, according to the poll. In contrast, if Barack Obama ran against Giuliani, the race would be tied. However, both Clinton and Obama run well ahead of Republican candidate Fred Thompson. As the table below shows, several recent polls have Democratic candidates beating Republicans by significant margins.
Democrats Winning Match Races in Recent Polls
|
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|
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Giuliani |
47-44% ( Clinton ) |
44-44% (tie) |
|
Thompson |
50-42% ( Clinton ) |
48-39% (Obama) |
|
Source: NPR (Oct 04-07)
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|
Clinton * |
Obama * |
Edwards ** |
Giuliani |
47-41% ( Clinton ) |
43-40% (Obama) |
50-41% (Edwards) |
Thompson |
49-38% ( Clinton ) |
46-31% (Obama) |
49-39% (Edwards) |
McCain |
48-38% ( Clinton ) |
44-36% (Obama) |
47-40% (Edwards) |
Romney |
49-34% ( Clinton ) |
42-32% (Obama) |
52-35% (Edwards) |
Source: * LA Times/Bloomberg (Oct 19-22) ** Rasmussen (Oct 03-04) |
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Early Primary States Are Still Very Close
National polls consistently show Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. However, looking at the state-by-state polls shows that the early primaries are still competitive. Even though many states have repositioned their primaries and caucuses to fall closer to those of Iowa and New Hampshire , the early primaries will still have a strong effect. It is likely that several second-tier candidates will drop out if they perform poorly in Iowa , which will send their supporters looking for a new candidate. The polls suggest a tight three-way race in Iowa , with Hillary Clinton holding a slight lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. Clinton 's lead is much wider in New Hampshire , but this situation could change if either Obama or Edwards wins in Iowa . As the table below shows, Hillary Clinton holds a strong lead in states other than Iowa , but as 2004 proved, a front-runner can be deeply wounded by a poor showing there. In 2004, Howard Dean was leading in all national polls prior to Iowa , but his disappointing third-place finish there gave John Kerry the lead and later the nomination.
State |
Poll |
Date |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Alabama |
Alabama Education Association |
Sept 17β19 |
45% |
25% |
9% |
Arizona |
American Research Group |
Oct 5β9 |
41% |
14% |
16% |
California |
San Jose State University |
Oct 1β8 |
42% |
20% |
14% |
Colorado |
American Research Group |
Sept 15β18 |
36% |
20% |
19% |
Connecticut |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 9β15 |
43% |
16% |
8% |
Delaware |
Fairleigh Dickinson University |
Oct 3β9 |
41% |
17% |
7% |
Florida |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 1β8 |
51% |
17% |
10% |
Georgia |
Strategic Vision |
Sept 7β9 |
34% |
25% |
13% |
Idaho |
Greg Smith & Associates |
July 11β13 |
31% |
33% |
15% |
Illinois |
American Research Group |
July 6β9 |
37% |
33% |
10% |
Iowa |
Strategic Vision |
Oct 12β14 |
28% |
23% |
20% |
Maryland |
OpinionWorks |
Aug 24β26 |
32% |
18% |
10% |
Michigan |
Strategic Vision |
Oct 5β7 |
42% |
26% |
10% |
Minnesota |
Princeton Survey Research |
Sept 18β23 |
47% |
22% |
16% |
Missouri |
American Research Group |
Aug 2β6 |
40% |
22% |
16% |
Nevada |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research |
Oct 9β11 |
39% |
21% |
9% |
New Hampshire |
Marist College |
Oct 4β9 |
43% |
21% |
12% |
New Jersey |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 9β15 |
46% |
20% |
9% |
New Mexico |
Albuquerque Journal |
Sept 4β6 |
17% |
8% |
8% |
New York |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 9β15 |
49% |
12% |
11% |
North Carolina |
Elon University |
Sept 24β27 |
37% |
18% |
18% |
Ohio |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 1β8 |
47% |
19% |
11% |
Oregon |
Riley Research Associates |
Aug 10β15 |
26% |
18% |
17% |
Pennsylvania |
Quinnipiac University |
Oct 1β8 |
41% |
14% |
11% |
Rhode Island |
Brown University |
Sept 8β9 |
35% |
16% |
7% |
South Carolina |
American Research Group |
Sept 26β29 |
41% |
30% |
7% |
Virginia |
Washington Post |
Oct 4β8 |
49% |
25% |
11% |
Washington |
Strategic Vision |
Oct 5β7 |
48% |
22% |
10% |
Wisconsin |
Strategic Vision |
Sept 14β16 |
44% |
22% |
11% |
No current polling data available in Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. |
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As we look ahead to the 2008 election, all the early signs are positive. The Bush administration's policies have alienated voters beyond Bush's political base which has pushed Independents to support Democrats. This critical opportunity depends on our ability to build strong, well-coordinated campaigns. And, that's where the NCEC comes in. Our precinct-targeting and demographic analysis will assist Democratic candidates at all levels, including the presidency. Our work will make the difference between victory and defeat. Through NCEC's efforts, with your help, Democratic campaigns will target vital voting populations and achieve the level of turnout necessary for victory in 2008.
