Election Insider

Georgia Senate Race May Be Headed For A Runoff

The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day. As it stands today, it is very possible that the now-competitive Senate race in Georgia could be heading for a runoff election, which would take place weeks after the general election. Winning the Senate race in Georgia is essential to any 60-seat scenario, so Democrats must be aware of this possibility.

If No Candidate Gets at Least 50%, a Runoff Occurs

Election rules in Georgia stipulate that if no candidate reaches a plurality of 50%, a runoff between the two top candidates occurs. Currently, the race is extremely tight, falling within the margin of error in most polls, but the presence of Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley may mean that a runoff will be necessary. Buckley is drawing between 5% and 6% of the vote in the most recent polling, and neither Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss nor Democratic challenger Jim Martin is reaching the 50% threshold.

Pollster	Date	Chambliss	Martin	Buckley	Undecided
Strategic Vision	10/20-22/08	46	44	5	5
Research 2000	10/14-15/08	47	45	5	3
SurveyUSA	10/11-12/08	46	43	6	5

Since the start of the current election cycle, special elections have been very kind to Democrats, as they have won three special elections in Republican districts over the past year, gaining seats in previously noncompetitive districts. However, these victories were widely predicated on a motivation gap between Democratic and Republican voters. This gap may not continue beyond the general election unless we are prepared.

Winning in Georgia Is Vital to Any Path to 60 Senate Seats

Democrats need to win nine Senate seats to achieve a filibuster-proof majority. Winning the race in Georgia is essential in any scenario for 60 Senate seats. Let's assume that the Democrats don't win in Georgia . In order to get the nine seats necessary to get to 60, the Democrats would then have to win in either Kentucky or Mississippi , which is less likely, on top of winning all the remaining toss-ups. NCEC precinct data and consultation would be a vital resource in the event of any runoff.

Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats)	New Mexico ( Tom Udall vs. Steve Pearce ), Virginia ( Mark Warner vs. Jim Gilmore )

Likely Switching to Blue (2 GOP Seats)	Colorado ( Mark Udall vs. Bob Schaffer ), New Hampshire ( JOHN SUNUNU vs. Jeanne Shaheen )

Leaning Blue (2 GOP Seats)	North Carolina ( ELIZABETH DOLE vs. Kay Hagan ), Oregon ( GORDON SMITH vs. Jeff Merkley )

True Toss-up (3 GOP Seats)	Alaska ( TED STEVENS vs. Mark Begich ), Georgia ( SAXBY CHAMBLISS vs. Jim Martin ), Minnesota ( NORM COLEMAN vs. Al Franken )

Likely Blue (1 Dem Seat)	Louisiana ( MARY LANDRIEU vs. John Kennedy )

Safe Democratic (11 Dem Seats)	Arkansas ( MARK PRYOR vs. no GOP opponent ), Delaware ( JOE BIDEN vs. Christine O'Donnell ), Illinois ( DICK DURBIN vs. Steve Sauerberg ), Iowa ( TOM HARKIN vs. Christopher Reed ), Massachusetts ( JOHN KERRY vs. Jeff Beatty ), Michigan ( CARL LEVIN vs. Jack Hoogendyk ), Montana ( MAX BAUCUS vs. Bob Kelleher ), New Jersey ( FRANK LAUTENBERG vs. Dick Zimmer ), Rhode Island ( JACK REED vs. Robert Tingle ), South Dakota ( TIM JOHNSON vs. Joel Dykstra ), West Virginia ( JAY ROCKEFELLER vs. Jay Wolfe )

Leaning Red (2 GOP Seats)	Kentucky ( MITCH MCCONNELL vs. Bruce Lunsford ), Mississippi special ( ROGER WICKER vs. Ronnie Musgrove )

Safe Red (12 GOP Seats)	Alabama ( JEFF SESSIONS vs. Vivian Davis Figures ), Idaho ( Larry LaRocco vs. Jim Risch ), Kansas ( PAT ROBERTS vs. Jim Slattery ), Maine ( SUSAN COLLINS vs. Tom Allen ), Mississippi ( THAD COCHRAN vs. Erik Fleming ), Nebraska ( Scott Kleeb vs. Mike Johanns ), Oklahoma ( JIM INHOFE vs. Andrew Rice ), South Carolina ( LINDSEY GRAHAM vs. Bob Conley ), Tennessee ( LAMAR ALEXANDER vs. Bob Tuke ), Texas ( JOHN CORNYN vs. Rick Noriega ), Wyoming ( MIKE ENZI vs. Chris Rothfuss ), Wyoming special ( JOHN BARRASSO vs. Nick Carter )

	Incumbents in CAPS, Democrats in blue , Republicans in red

Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Seven Counts

Longtime Alaska Senator Ted Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts of making false statements on Senate disclosure forms. The charges surround remodeling of his home, which he received from the oil company VECO , among other things. The verdict ensures that this seat will be very competitive throughout the rest of the campaign. There was some worry that an acquittal in the trial would have had negative effects on Mark Begich's campaign. However, the guilty verdict doesn't ensure a Democratic victory, because there remains in Alaska a great deal of loyalty to Stevens, who has held that seat since 1968.