2008 Presidential Election ELECTION NIGHT SCORECARD

What to Look for Election Night

The early vote numbers in the battleground states have been encouraging thus far, as turnout has been historic, and all polls suggest that Obama is in the lead. As the table below indicates, we may have an idea of how the election will turn out at an early hour, because many of the most important battleground states will be done voting by 8:30 EST. Should Obama carry Virginia and Ohio from these early contests, the celebration is likely to begin. Other early states that could be strong indicators are Georgia and Indiana, which are both close, if Obama wins there, a landslide election is in progress.

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Poll Closing Times (EST)

What to Look For

Obama States
(291 Elect Votes)

McCain States
(160 Elect Votes)

Toss-up States
(87 Elect Votes)

7-7:30 PM (EST)

Obama: 16
McCain: 36
Toss-up: 31

Indiana , Ohio and Virginia : Likely Obama win if he carries two of three

Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)

 

Georgia (15)
Kentucky (8) *
South Carolina (8)
West Virginia (5)

Indiana (11) *
Ohio (20)

8-8:30 PM (EST)
Obama: 100
McCain: 39
Toss-up: 53

Big win and early network call if Obama carries Florida , Missouri or North Carolina

Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)**
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
New Hampshire (4) *
New Jersey (15)
Pennsylvania (21)

Alabama (9) *
Arkansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)

Florida (27) *
Missouri (11)
North Carolina (15)*

9-9:30 PM (EST)
Obama: 86
McCain: 73
Toss-up: 0

Obama needs to carry Colorado and New Mexico in a close election. Arizona win would be the Wednesday headline.

Colorado (9)
Michigan (17) *
Minnesota (10)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Wisconsin (10)

Arizona (10)
Kansas (6) *
Louisiana (9)
Nebraska (5)*/**
North Dakota (3) *
South Dakota (3)*
Texas (34) *
Wyoming (3)

 

10-10:30 PM (EST)
Obama: 12
McCain: 5
Toss-up: 3

Iowa (7)
Nevada (5)

Utah (5)

Montana (3)

 

11-11:30 PM (EST)
Obama: 77
McCain: 7
Toss-up: 0

California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Oregon (7) *
Washington (11)

Alaska (3)*
Idaho (4)*

 

Poll closing times are Eastern Time. Several states have more than one poll closing time. We used the latest time. Note that many states allow extensions of times. 270 Electoral Votes out of 538 are needed to win.

* Polls in some counties may close earlier. Polls in Alaska close at 12 midnight and 1am Eastern Time.

** Maine and Nebraska allocate Electoral Votes by Congressional District. Democrats have a chance of winning one of Nebraska 's CD Electoral Votes.

Fourteen Battleground States in Bold .

Poll closing times from The Green Papers ( www.thegreenpapers.com) and state boards of elections.

 

US Senate Races

Top 50 Battleground US House Races

Battleground Senate Races (13)

AL-2

Bright (D) vs. Love (R) - Leans Rep

AK

Begich (D) vs. STEVENS (R) - Toss-up

AL-5

Griffith (D) vs. Parker (R) - Toss-up

CO

Mark Udall (D) vs. SCHAFFER (R) - Leans Dem/pickup

AK-1

Berkowitz (D) vs. YOUNG (R) - Leans Dem

GA

Martin (D) vs. CHAMBLISS (R) - Leans Rep

AZ-1

Kirkpatrick (D) vs. Hay (R) - Leans Dem

KY

Lundsford (D) vs. MCCONNELL (R) - Leans Rep

AZ-3

Lord (D) vs. SHADEGG (R) - Leans Rep

LA

LANDRIEU (D) vs. Kennedy (R) - Leans Dem

CA-4

Brown (D) vs. McClintock (R) - Toss-up

ME

Allen (D) vs. COLLINS (R) - Likely Rep

CO-4

Markey (D) vs. MUSGRAVE (R) - Leans Dem

MN

Franken (D) vs. COLEMAN (R) - Toss-up

CT-4

Himes (D) vs. SHAYS (R) - Toss-up

MS

Musgrove (D) vs. WICKER (R) - Leans Rep/Special

FL-8

Grayson (D) vs. KELLER (R) - Leans Dem

NC

Hagan (D) vs. DOLE (R) - Toss-up

FL-16

MAHONEY (D) vs. Rooney (R) - Leans Rep

NH

Shaheen (D) vs. SUNUNU (R) - Leans Dem/pickup

FL-21

Martinez (D) vs. LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART - Toss-up

NJ

LAUTENBERG (D) vs. Zimmer (R) - Likely Dem

FL-25

Garcia (D) vs. MARIO DIAZ-BALART - Toss-up

NM

Tom Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) - Likely Dem/pickup

GA-8

MARSHALL (D) vs. Goddard (R) - Leans Dem

OR

Merkley (D) vs. SMITH (R) - Toss-up

ID-1

Minnick (D) vs. SALI (R) - Toss-up

Safe Democratic Races (11)

IL-10

Seals (D) vs. KIRK (R) - Toss-up

AR

PRYOR (D) - no GOP opponent

IN-3

Montagano (D) vs. SOUDER (R) - Leans Rep

DE

BIDEN (D) vs. O'Connell (R)

KS-2

BOYDA (D) vs. Jenkins (R) - Leans Dem

IA

HARKIN (D) vs. Reed (R)

KY-2

Boswell (D) vs. Guthrie (R) - Toss-up

IL

DURBIN (D) vs. Sauerberg (R)

LA-4

Banks/Carmouche (D) vs. Fleming/Gorman (R) - Toss-up

MA

KERRY (D) vs. Beatty (R)

LA-6

CAZAYOUX (D) vs. Cassidy (R) - Toss-up

MI

LEVIN (D) vs. Hoogendyk (R)

MD-1

Kratovil (D) vs. Harris (R) - Toss-up

MT

BAUCUS (D) vs. Kelleher (R)

MI-7

Schauer (D) vs. WALBERG (R) - Toss-up

RI

REED (D) vs. Tingle (R)

MI-9

Peters (D) vs. KNOLLENBERG (R) - Leans Dem

SD

JOHNSON (D) vs. Dykstra (R)

MN-3

Madia (D) vs. Paulsen (R) - Toss-up

VA

Warner (D) vs. Gilmore (R) - pickup

MN-6

Tinklenberg (D) vs. BACHMANN (R) - Toss-up

WV

ROCKEFELLER (D) vs. Wolfe (R)

MO-9

Baker (D) vs. Luetkemeyer (R) - Leans Rep

Safe Republican Races (11)

NE-2

Esch (D) vs. TERRY (R) - Toss-up

AL

Figures (D) vs. SESSIONS (R)

NV-3

Titus (D) vs. PORTER (R) - Leans Dem

ID

LaRocco (D) vs. Risch (R)

NH-1

SHEA-PORTER (D) vs. Bradley (R) - Toss-up

KS

Slattery (D) vs. ROBERTS (R)

NJ-3

Alder (D) vs. Myers (R) - Toss-up

MS

Fleming (D) vs. COCHRAN (R)

NJ-7

Stender (D) vs. Lance (R) - Toss-up

NE

Kleeb (D) vs. Johanns (R)

NM-1

Heinrich (D) vs. White (R) - Leans Dem

OK

Rice (D) vs. INHOFE (R)

NM-2

Teague (D) vs. Tinsley (R) - Leans Dem

SC

Conley (D) vs. GRAHAM (R)

NY-13

McMahon (D) vs. Straniere (R) - Likely Dem

TN

Tuke (D) vs. ALEXANDER (R)

NY-25

Maeffi (D) vs. Sweetland (R) - Leans Rep

TX

Noriega (D) vs. CORNYN (R)

NY-26

Kryzan (D) vs. Lee (R) - Toss-up

WY

Rothfuss (D) vs. ENZI (R)

NY-29

Massa (D) vs. KUHL (R) - Toss-up

WY

Carter (D) vs. BARRASSO (R) - Special Election

NC-8

Kissel (D) vs. HAYES (R) - Leans Dem

Congressional Outlook

Democrats have an historic opportunity to make significant gains in both houses of Congress. To reach the 60-seat "supermajority" and potentially eliminate the threat of GOP filibusters Democrats must add nine seats. Democrats are almost certain to capture CO, NH, NM, and VA. AK, MN, NC, and OR are toss-up races and GOP incumbents in GA, KY and MS are slightly favored.

In the House 43 of the 50 battleground districts are held by Republicans and 33 of those are toss-up or lean Democratic.

Incumbents in CAPS, Dem seats in blue, GOP seats in red

OH-1

Driehaus (D) vs. CHABOT (R) - Toss-up

OH-2

Wulsin (D) vs. SCHMIDT (R) - Leans Rep

OH-15

Kilroy (D) vs. Stivers (R) - Leans Dem

OH-16

Boccieri (D) vs. Schuring (R) - Leans Dem

PA-3

Dahlkemper (D) vs. ENGLISH (R) - Toss-up

PA-11

KANJORSKI (D) vs. Barletta (R) - Toss-up

SC-1

Ketner (D) vs. BROWN (R) - Leans Rep

TX-10

Doherty (D) vs. MCCAUL (R) - Leans Rep

VA-2

Nye (D) vs. DRAKE (R) - Toss-up

VA-5

Perriello (D) vs. Goode (R) - Leans Rep

WA-8

Burner (D) vs. REICHERT (R) - Toss-up

WY-1

Trauner (D) vs. Lummis (R) - Leans Rep