Colorado Trending Blue

Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity. In the last two election cycles, Democrats have captured two House seats, a Senate seat, the governorship, and control of both houses of the state legislature. This transformation is symptomatic of a wider development across the country that has Republican strategists deeply concerned. In short, Democrats are performing vastly better in suburban and exurban areas, and this development has put Republicans on the defensive. Colorado 's nine electoral votes could be immensely important to Democratic presidential aspirations, and the fate of the state could serve as a strong bellwether indicator of the larger race. Colorado will more than ever be a focal point of the national election in 2008. Not only is the presidential election expected to be solidly competitive, but there is also an open Senate race, two open-seat House races, and five potentially competitive House races. In the past two cycles, Democrats have experienced increasing success in key suburban and exurban areas such as Arapahoe, Douglas, Jefferson, and Larimer counties, leaving rural counties as the only staunchly conservative areas left for the GOP.

One of the most important factors in the increased Democratic success in Colorado is the growing support for the party in suburban areas previously dominated by Republicans. Arapahoe County is a solid example of this evolution. Since 2000, the voting-age population of Arapahoe County has increased by more than 42,000, and this increase has dramatically changed the voting habits of the county. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 43 percent of the vote in Arapahoe County . By 2002, Democratic support had increased to 46.5 percent in the Senate race. The trend of increased Democratic performance continued in 2004 and 2006. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried Arapahoe County with 52 percent of the vote, and Governor Bill Ritter outperformed Salazar in 2006 when he received nearly 60 percent of the vote (59.5 percent).

Douglas County , one of the fastest-growing counties in the country, also shows some of these positive Democratic trends. The voting-age population has increased by more than 69,000 since 2000. While the Democratic gains are not as pronounced as the shift seen in Arapahoe County , there has still been a boost in Democratic support. In 2000, Al Gore received just 31 percent of the vote in Douglas County . In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received 33 percent of the vote, a modest improvement. In 2004, Ken Salazar received more than 38 percent. The voting trend accelerated in 2006, as Governor Bill Ritter nearly carried Douglas County with more than 46 percent of the vote. While this county remains solid Republican, consistent Democratic gains in this large population center are a direct contributor to the recent success of Democrats in statewide elections.

Jefferson County , another rapidly growing population center home to more than 350,000 registered voters, has exhibited these same voting tendencies. Jefferson County was selected as the center and main voting contributor to the new Seventh Congressional District, which was added in 2002. The voting-age population has grown by 10,000 since 2000, and Democrats have been performing increasingly well there. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat, now controls the Seventh District; this would have been unthinkable ten years ago. In 1996, Bill Clinton received less than 44 percent of the vote in Jefferson County , but demographic shifts in the county have increased the Democratic share of the vote. In 2002, Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland got more than 47 percent of the vote in Jefferson County . Ken Salazar won Jefferson County by 4 percent in 2004, and Bill Ritter amassed more than 59 percent of the vote in Jefferson County in 2006—making a 16 percent shift from 1996 to 2006.

A final example of this voting trend is Larimer County , which has seen some of the most drastic changes. Over the past seven years the voting-age population has grown by more than 24,000, and subsequent increases in Democratic support have been seen. In 2000, Al Gore got less than 40 percent of the vote in Larimer County , which is made up of rural, suburban, and exurban areas. A major shift was already evident in this county by 2002, when Democratic Senatorial candidate Tom Strickland received more than 44 percent of the vote. The trend continues, as Ken Salazar won Larimer County with 52 percent of the vote in 2004. Bill Ritter won more than 58 percent of the vote in Larimer County in 2006, which represents an 18 percent surge in Democratic support from 2000–2006.

Implications for 2008

If current trends hold, Colorado will be a major player in the 2008 presidential race, as well as a golden opportunity for another Senate pickup for the Democrats. Beyond statewide races, there are competitive House races as well.

President : Democrats failed in 2004 largely because of their dependence on winning a great majority of the traditional presidential swing states, which left no room for error or a setback. In 2004, there were not enough targets. As the 2008 election approaches, Democrats should look to Colorado to expand the playing field. Picking up Colorado 's nine electoral votes would be of great importance to the overall Western campaign strategy. John Kerry ended up 18 electoral votes shy of winning the presidency, which caused too much importance to be placed on Ohio . There are three states in the West that are expected to be competitive and that could offset the importance of Ohio and make winning there less crucial. If the Democratic candidate wins Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, all states that were decided by less than 5 percent in 2004, 19 electoral votes would be gained, which would be sufficient to make up for any potential defeat in Ohio. If present trends hold there is a good chance that Colorado could go to the Democrats for the first time since 1992.

Senate : Early polling and financial data are both extremely positive for Democrats in this Senate race. Mark Udall holds a significant advantage in money and (thus far) in support. A poll from Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling firm, had Udall ahead of Republican candidate Bob Schaffer by 5 percent (45-40). Other polling had Udall even further ahead. Udall can also count on the support of vastly popular Democratic Governor Bill Ritter. As alluded to before, increased Democratic performance in suburban areas has been paramount for recent success for Democrats. If this trend holds, Udall is certainly the favorite.

CO-02: Incumbent Mark Udall has vacated this seat to run for the Senate, but despite its open-seat status, this race is only “potentially competitive.” The major population centers in this district are in Adams, Boulder , Broomfield , and Jefferson counties. The Second District portions of Adams and Boulder counties are solidly Democratic. In 2004, Ken Salazar carried 58 percent of the Adams County portion of the district, and both Kerry and Salazar amassed 72 percent of the vote in Boulder County . Jefferson and Broomfield remain competitive, but Democrats have performed increasingly well there over the past few cycles. Ken Salazar carried the Second District portion of both counties in 2004, outpacing John Kerry by 5 percent in both counties. Republicans lack a candidate at present, so there is little chance that they will lose this district. Any one of the three potential Democratic candidates will most likely be able to hold on to this district.

CO-04: The Fourth District has been trending Democratic over the past three cycles. Marilyn Musgrave's margin of victory has steadily decreased over the past three cycles, but 2006 might have been Democrats' best chance to defeat her given the political environment. Angie Paccione lost by a mere 3 percent due to a number of factors.

Paccione performed well in Larimer County , which is essential for any Democrat. She amassed more than 54 percent of the major party vote, which was a large improvement over Stan Matsunaka's performance in 2002 and 2004 when he failed to carry the county. In addition to Larimer County , Paccione performed reasonably well in Boulder County , receiving nearly 54 percent of the vote. However, in both Larimer County and Boulder County , Paccione ran well behind Governor Bill Ritter's numbers, which suggests that even though she performed well in both these counties there is room for improvement. For example, Paccione received nearly 5 percent less than did Bill Ritter in Boulder County , and more than 3 percent less in Larimer County . Modest improvement in these counties could put this district increasingly in play.

Another factor that led to Paccione's defeat is one that was symptomatic of many close defeats for Democrats in 2006: Democrats expanded their performance in urban and suburban areas, but did not improve in rural areas. The Fourth District comprises mainly rural counties where Paccione failed to improve on past cycles. For example, her share of the major party vote ran behind Stan Matsunaka's 2004 share in Cheyenne , Logan , Morgan , Washington , Weld, and Yuma counties. Slightly increased performance in these counties would have given her a real chance to win the race.

Musgrave has toned down her rhetoric so far this term, which will make her more difficult to beat. However, slight improvements in rural areas, coupled with extended success in Boulder County and Larimer County , could flip this seat in 2008.

CO-06: Tom Tancredo's retirement will make this a much more competitive race, but winning this gerrymandered district will take a strong moderate candidate who can attract a decent number of Republican votes. The Sixth District pulls in the most conservative parts of Arapahoe, Douglas, and Jefferson counties. In 2004, John Kerry and Ken Salazar ran well below their countywide percentages in the Sixth District portion of these counties. For example, Ken Salazar received 52 percent of the countywide vote in Arapahoe County in 2004, but just 47 percent in the Sixth District portion of the county. The same scenario played out in Jefferson County where Salazar performed more than 4 percent worse in the Sixth District portion of the county in comparison to his countywide performance. Mike Coffman's entrance into the race will make this district even harder to win, but will lead to a Democrat taking the position of Secretary of State.

CO-07: Ed Perlmutter's 13 percent victory in this district has led Republicans to essentially abandon the district. No opponent to Perlmutter has surfaced as of yet, and it is likely that he will be reelected.