Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
How Did Hillary Clinton Turn It Around?
A Report from NCEC Washington Director Mark Gersh
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada . It remains to be seen what effect of any these results will have on the wider contest as Super Tuesday fast approaches.
Women propelled the comeback of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire . As in Iowa , women comprised 57% of the electorate. However, Senator Clinton amassed a 12-point margin and generated a 17-point gender gap in New Hampshire, while she lost by five points to Senator Obama among women in Iowa amid a modest seven-point gender gap there. The positive trend continued for Clinton in the Nevada caucus, where women accounted for 59% of the electorate, and she outpaced Obama among women by an 11-point margin (51%-38%).
Several other, less conspicuous factors also played crucial roles in Hillary Clinton's comeback. Although Senator Obama garnered strong support from voters 18 to 29 years old, the share of the vote among this group declined from an estimated 22% in Iowa to 18% in New Hampshire . Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Obama was able to trigger far greater youth support in New Hampshire than any candidate managed to in the Democratic primary elections in 2000 or 2004. Obama carried the 18-to-29 voters by a 51% to 28% margin over Hillary Clinton, but he was decisively defeated among voters aged 45 and older, a group comprising 56% of the electorate. Clinton won a plurality among all voters over age 30 and tied Obama among voters 30 to 44 years old. In Nevada , Obama again outpaced Clinton for the youth vote, amassing more than 59%, but the age group accounted for just 13% of the total vote, showing that the power of the youth vote has declined in consecutive contests, a disturbing trend for the Obama campaign.
An abundance of scrutiny has been conferred on the gender and youth vote in New Hampshire . Here are a few other pertinent elements of the Clinton upset that have received less notoriety:
Late Deciders - A surprising 37% of the voters made their determination in the final three days, with more than one-third voting for Clinton . Apparently, the Obama campaign failed to receive the anticipated momentum boost from the Iowa campaign. Moreover, Senator Clinton won 40% of the vote among voters deciding on the final day of the New Hampshire campaign.
The Economy - Among the 31% of the electorate judging the economy as poor, Clinton amassed 44% as opposed to 31% for Obama.
Large Towns & Cities - Cities and towns casting 1,500 or more votes broke strongly for Clinton . Her 9,000 vote plurality in these places represented her entire victory margin. Conversely, Obama enjoyed a narrow lead in smaller New Hampshire towns, mostly in rural parts of the state.
A Repeat of Kerry/Dean - Howard Dean carried one county -- Grafton -- in his 2004 race against John Kerry. Obama also performed strongly in Grafton. Conversely, Kerry's strength in the two largest cities in the state -- Manchester and Nashua -- was replicated by Hillary Clinton. Clinton won Manchester by 15 points and Nashua by a 12-point margin. In the close 2008 contest, turnout was up 31.4% in areas won by Kerry and where Clinton tended to perform best, while it increased 27.5% in areas where Dean defeated Kerry and Obama ran strongly.
Turnout in Clinton Strongholds - Not only was Clinton the favorite of Manchester and Nashua voters, but prodigious turnout accentuated the Clinton margin in both places. Compared to 2004, turnout was up 27% in Manchester and 28% in Nashua . In other Clinton strongholds, the increase in turnout between 2004 and 2008 was remarkable: up 63% in Rochester and 40% in Somerville .
Independents - Although Barack Obama won Independents by 10 points, many Independents opted for the Republican primary battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Approximately 44% of the vote in the Democratic primary was cast by Independents, as opposed to 38% in the Republican contest. In Nevada , Obama once again carried the Independent vote, but Independents made up just 15% of the votes, which was not a large enough share for Obama to close the gap among registered Democrats.
In a race this close, any number of factors can spell the difference between victory and defeat. In New Hampshire it is clear that women carried the day for Clinton , along with the other factors that I have outlined in this memo, and many of these same factors led to Clinton 's victory in Nevada as well. On to the next state.
