Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
How Did Hillary Clinton Turn It Around?
A Report from NCEC Washington Director Mark Gersh
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada . It remains to be seen what effect of any these results will have on the wider contest as Super Tuesday fast approaches.
Women propelled the comeback of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire . As in Iowa , women comprised 57% of the electorate. However, Senator Clinton amassed a 12-point margin and generated a 17-point gender gap in New Hampshire, while she lost by five points to Senator Obama among women in Iowa amid a modest seven-point gender gap there. The positive trend continued for Clinton in the Nevada caucus, where women accounted for 59% of the electorate, and she outpaced Obama among women by an 11-point margin (51%-38%).
Several other, less conspicuous factors also played crucial roles in Hillary Clinton's comeback. Although Senator Obama garnered strong support from voters 18 to 29 years old, the share of the vote among this group declined from an estimated 22% in Iowa to 18% in New Hampshire . Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Obama was able to trigger far greater youth support in New Hampshire than any candidate managed to in the Democratic primary elections in 2000 or 2004. Obama carried the 18-to-29 voters by a 51% to 28% margin over Hillary Clinton, but he was decisively defeated among voters aged 45 and older, a group comprising 56% of the electorate. Clinton won a plurality among all voters over age 30 and tied Obama among voters 30 to 44 years old. In Nevada , Obama again outpaced Clinton for the youth vote, amassing more than 59%, but the age group accounted for just 13% of the total vote, showing that the power of the youth vote has declined in consecutive contests, a disturbing trend for the Obama campaign.
An abundance of scrutiny has been conferred on the gender and youth vote in New Hampshire . Here are a few other pertinent elements of the Clinton upset that have received less notoriety:
Late Deciders - A surprising 37% of the voters made their determination in the final three days, with more than one-third voting for Clinton . Apparently, the Obama campaign failed to receive the anticipated momentum boost from the Iowa campaign. Moreover, Senator Clinton won 40% of the vote among voters deciding on the final day of the New Hampshire campaign.
The Economy - Among the 31% of the electorate judging the economy as poor, Clinton amassed 44% as opposed to 31% for Obama.
Large Towns & Cities - Cities and towns casting 1,500 or more votes broke strongly for Clinton . Her 9,000 vote plurality in these places represented her entire victory margin. Conversely, Obama enjoyed a narrow lead in smaller New Hampshire towns, mostly in rural parts of the state.
A Repeat of Kerry/Dean - Howard Dean carried one county -- Grafton -- in his 2004 race against John Kerry. Obama also performed strongly in Grafton. Conversely, Kerry's strength in the two largest cities in the state -- Manchester and Nashua -- was replicated by Hillary Clinton. Clinton won Manchester by 15 points and Nashua by a 12-point margin. In the close 2008 contest, turnout was up 31.4% in areas won by Kerry and where Clinton tended to perform best, while it increased 27.5% in areas where Dean defeated Kerry and Obama ran strongly.
Turnout in Clinton Strongholds - Not only was Clinton the favorite of Manchester and Nashua voters, but prodigious turnout accentuated the Clinton margin in both places. Compared to 2004, turnout was up 27% in Manchester and 28% in Nashua . In other Clinton strongholds, the increase in turnout between 2004 and 2008 was remarkable: up 63% in Rochester and 40% in Somerville .
Independents - Although Barack Obama won Independents by 10 points, many Independents opted for the Republican primary battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Approximately 44% of the vote in the Democratic primary was cast by Independents, as opposed to 38% in the Republican contest. In Nevada , Obama once again carried the Independent vote, but Independents made up just 15% of the votes, which was not a large enough share for Obama to close the gap among registered Democrats.
In a race this close, any number of factors can spell the difference between victory and defeat. In New Hampshire it is clear that women carried the day for Clinton , along with the other factors that I have outlined in this memo, and many of these same factors led to Clinton 's victory in Nevada as well. On to the next state.
