Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Frankens long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
January 30 Election Insider
First 100 Hours Fulfills Promise of Change
The Democratic majority has come out swinging, sending the message that change is afoot in Washington and fulfilling the campaign promises that powered us to victory last November. The pivotal first 100 hours of the new Democratic majority produced several victories in the House, including raising the minimum wage and sweeping ethics reform. These achievements set the tone for an aggressive term, as functional government has returned at long last. There are battles to be fought in the Senate where the Democratic majority is fragile, but the House has delivered thus far.
The table below shows the early legislative achievements of the new Democratic majority, which includes legislation to lower prescription drug prices, lower interest rates on student loans, and implement the much-needed recommendations of the 9/11 commission. Some of this legislation, including the stem cell research bill, faces a tough road in the Senate, but hopefully after compromise a form of each of these bills will be passed. The House versions are more ambitious due to our larger majority; it is unlikely that the legislation will pass through the Senate in its current form, but progress will be made in all of these areas when the final bills are passed. President Bush plans to veto the stem cell research bill, but last July the Republican-led Congress passed an identical bill by a vote of 63β37, so there is hope that we can override the Presidential veto.
|
HOUSE VERSION |
SENATE VERSION |
September 11 Commission Passed US House January 9 |
Would enact many recommendations of the September 11 commission, including issuing antiterrorism grants solely based on need and further inspecting all cargo coming into the country. |
Some Senate leaders, including Joe Lieberman of Connecticut , have expressed concern that the 100 percent screening mandate may be unreasonable. |
Minimum Wage Passed US House January 10 |
Would raise the federal minimum wage to $7.25 an hour over the next three years. |
The legislation has hit a snag, as members of both parties want to tie any increase to tax breaks for small businesses. Compromise is likely in the near future. |
Stem Cell Research Passed US House January 11 |
Would overturn President Bush's restrictions on embryonic stem cell research, which were passed in 2001. |
In July 2006, the Republican-controlled Senate approved identical legislation by a vote of 63 to 37, which would be enough to overcome a veto by President Bush. |
Prescription Drug Costs Passed US House January 12 |
Would require the secretary of health and human services to negotiate with drug manufacturers on behalf of Medicare beneficiaries. |
The measure is unlikely to pass the Senate in its current form. However, a focus on certain types of very expensive drugs has bipartisan support in the Senate. |
Student Loans Passed US House January 17 |
Would cut the interest rate on federal student loans to college students from 6.8 percent to 3.4 percent over the next five years. |
A bill, sponsored by Senator Kennedy of Massachusetts , would make a few changes, including increasing the maximum Pell grant to $5,100. |
Energy Policy Passed US House January 18 |
Would roll back $14 billion worth of tax breaks and subsidies for oil companies, which would go to a reserve to offset the cost of promoting other sources of energy. |
Senate Democrats are moving more cautiously, but they have made it clear that they support the legislation. The bill most likely will pass after minor changes. |
Congressional Approval Ratings Improve Following Democratic Takeover
Congressional approval ratings have improved dramatically after the Democratic takeover this month. For the last year, congressional approval has languished under 30 percent, but that is no longer the case. Following an aggressive and productive first 100 hours, American attitudes toward Congress are improving. The January 15-18 Gallup poll shows that 35% of Americans approve of the job that Congress is doing. While this number seems low, it is the highest rating that Congress has received since September 2005, and is a 14-point increase from the December poll. Further, this rating is 10 points higher than the 25% congressional average from the last year. General approval of Congress has also improved, as only 56% of Americans disapprove of Congress, up from 74% last month.
More important than current job approval is the confidence of the general public. This poll shows that the public's confidence rests squarely on the shoulders of Democrats. According to the same poll, 59% of Americans believe that the policies of Democrats will lead the country in the right direction, as opposed to only 35% siding with Republicans.
Lastly, the poll shows that Americans want Congress, rather than President Bush, to steer the country; 63% of those surveyed preferred Congress to have more influence than the president over the direction of the country.
It is clear that improvements need to be made, but the Democratic majority is off to a positive start. It is vastly important for us to increase the Democratic majority in both houses in 2008, so that our legislation can be passed in full force in the coming years. NCEC is already preparing for the fight in 2008, and there is no time to lose.
