Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
An Analysis of the Florida Primary
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
More than 1.7 million Democratic voters cast ballots in Tuesday's primary, the largest presidential turnout in the state's history, exceeding the previous 1976 high by more than 400,000 votes and more than doubling the 2004 turnout and tripling the 2000 turnout. The winner, Senator Hillary Clinton, amassed more votes than did any previous Democratic contender, including two past southern presidents -- Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.
The voting in Florida mirrored the national demographic composition far more accurately than did events in South Carolina , New Hampshire or Iowa . 31% of the vote was cast by African-Americans (19%) and Hispanics (12%). Unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire (overwhelmingly white) and South Carolina (55% African-American), in Florida a diverse agglomeration of voters melded the final results.
Replicating the results in Nevada , the Clinton campaign scored heavily with Hispanics, garnering an impressive 69% of the vote and nearly offsetting Senator Obama's 73%–25% margin among African-Americans. If results in New York , California and New Jersey match the Florida outcome, Obama will have a difficult time amassing statewide margins, as his share of the white vote has declined since Iowa and New Hampshire . Florida 's white voters favored Clinton by a 53%–23% margin.
On a geographic level, Clinton defeated Obama in every region of the state, with the exception of the heavily conservative northern Florida area. As for the crucible in the general election, the Orlando and Tampa ticket-splitters, Senator Clinton won easily, with a stunning 52%–33% advantage among Florida suburban voters.
There are other demographic trends warranting attention: There was a substantial gender gap -- Clinton won females by 23% and males by a scant 4%; Clinton won white males by 18%. Liberals and moderates strongly favored Clinton , while Obama garnered a 1% advantage with conservatives. Support for Clinton among Catholic (63%) and Jewish (58%) voters even exceeded the statewide percentage.
On the other hand , Obama had to overcome several hurdles. The share of voters 18–29, his strongest group, composed less than 10% of the vote, in a state where senior voters compose the most important voting bloc. Second, all three major candidates, including John Edwards, honored the DNC prohibition on campaigning in the state. Obama has benefited from strong organizational activities in other primaries.
Florida , however, matters. It will soon encompass the third-largest population in the nation, trailing only California and Texas . Moreover, it is a general-election battleground for both parties, unlike California (Democratic), Texas (Republican) and New York (Democratic), the other large states.
As we approach Super Tuesday, the race for the nomination remains competitive. While Clinton is favored in the larger states, Obama will amass a considerable number of delegates in New York and California ; will carry his home state, Illinois ; and is favored to win several caucus states. In a race where clarity was anticipated, even prior to February 5, it now seems likely that the Republicans will coronate a prospective nominee, John McCain, before the Clinton–Obama contest is decided. While the departure of John Edwards renders the prospect of a brokered convention extremely remote, it is likely that the Democratic struggle will be fiercely contested for weeks to come.
