Election Insider

May 7 Election Insider


The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.

April 24 Election Insider


Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.

April 10 Election Insider


The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.

March 25 Election Insider


As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.

March 11 Election Insider


The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.

February 25 Election Insider


So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

February 15 Election Insider


The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.

February 4 Election Insider


The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.

January 31 Election Insider


Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.

January 23 Election Insider


In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .

January 15 Election Insider


The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.

December 17 Election Insider


The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.

November 28 Election Insider


Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.

October 26 Election Insider


Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.

October 11 Election Insider


Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.

September 21 Election Insider


Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.

August 29 Election Insider


Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.

August 9 Election Insider


Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.

July 27 Election Insider

Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.

July 11 Election Insider

The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.

June 28 Election Insider

Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.

June 13 Election Insider

In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.

May 29 Election Insider

One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.

May 17 Election Insider

The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.

April 25 Election Insider

The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.

April 18 Election Insider

The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.

Election Insider

Super Tuesday Preview

The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records. Whether it was an Obama victory, as in Iowa and South Carolina , or a Clinton win, as in New Hampshire , Nevada , and Florida , turnout has been remarkable. Unmistakably, the Obama campaign has tapped into an excited youth vote, irrespective of racial considerations. That bodes well for the general election. In fact, the remarkable African-American turnout in South Carolina leads to the conclusion that South Carolina and Mississippi -- two unwaveringly red states -- might be in play in the general election. 

To date, here is what we have experienced in early primaries and caucuses turnout:

IOWA - 236,000 - almost double the previous high - 90% higher than in 2004.

NEW HAMPSHIRE - 288,000 - 31% higher than in 2004 - almost 30% of all eligible voters participated in the Democratic primary.

NEVADA - 118,000, an astounding caucus turnout - 57% higher than that of any past caucus.

SOUTH CAROLINA - 523,000 - 78% higher than the 2004 turnout. Almost 300,000 African-Americans went to the polls.     

FLORIDA - 1,700,000 - 31% above the previous high set in 1976.

While the rhetoric has often been heated, neither candidate has experienced a disintegration of favorability with the electorate, at least since the primary-caucus season opened in January. 

As we approach Super Tuesday, it is extremely hazardous to formulate predictions. Here is what we do know: The national polls show an ever-tightening race. Obama has drawn close to the margin of error with Clinton . Moreover, a poll in New Jersey , released today by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Al Quinlan, revealed that the Clinton margin is down to 6%.

We should anticipate something of a mixed verdict on Tuesday. While Senator Clinton is likely to carry New York , and is favored in California and New Jersey by diminished margins, and is also expected to carry Arkansas , Senator Obama is thought to be ahead in Alabama , Georgia , Kansas , and his home state of Illinois . A state to watch is Missouri , with a large African-American vote, and a proximity to Illinois . The winner there, in a quintessentially red state, will boost either candidate.

Here is one prediction we can make: Turnout is likely to set records in California, potentially exceeding 5 million votes, New York, potentially exceeding 3 million votes, and several other states.

Facing a close battle with likely GOP winner John McCain, Democratic enthusiasm in next Tuesday's primaries and caucuses will be important to watch.

Below is a list of all the states having contests on Super Tuesday and the most recent poll available for states that have conducted them.

Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008

22 States Up in Close Democratic Contest

Caucus States (delegates)

Poll Date

Clinton

Edwards

Obama

Alaska (18)

 

No current polls

Colorado (71)

Jan 2008

32%

17%

34%

Idaho (23)

Jul 2007

31%

15%

33%

Kansas (41)

 

No current polls

Minnesota (88)

Jan 2008

40%

12%

33%

North Dakota (21)

 

No current polls

 

 

 

 

 

Primary States (delegates)

Poll Date

Clinton

Edwards

Obama

Alabama (60)

Jan 2008

40%

9%

35%

Arizona (67)

Feb 2008

43%

-

41%

Arkansas (47)

Dec 2007

57%

14%

17%

California (441)

Feb 2008

39%

-

40%

Connecticut (60)

Feb 2008

48%

-

35%

Delaware (23)

Oct 2007

44%

-

42%

Georgia (103)

Feb 2008

31%

-

48%

Illinois (185)

Feb 2008

24%

-

55%

Massachusetts (121)

Jan 2008

43%

8%

15%

Missouri (88)

Feb 2007

42%

-

47%

New Jersey (127)

Feb 2008

46%

-

39%

New Mexico (38)

 

No current polls

New York (281)

Jan 2008

54%

-

38%

Oklahoma (47)

Dec 2007

34%

25%

15%

Tennessee (85)

Jan 2008

34%

16%

20%

Utah (29)

Oct 2007

31%

9%

18%