Voters Turnout Overwhelmingly in Democratic Primary

The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest. Turnout on the Democratic side on Super Tuesday was historic, far eclipsing Republican turnout, as conservatives continue to be uninspired by their choices. Super Tuesday followed the established trend as Democratic voters turned out at massively higher rates than Republican voters, even in conservative bedrocks like Georgia and Oklahoma . This gap has also been seen in future battleground states, which bodes well for Democrats in both the presidential race and down-ticket races, including Senate and House races, in the general election. Colorado and Virginia represent two battleground states where primary turnout was lopsided . Democrats are motivated by their choices, and this motivation could help secure two Senate seats and three more House seats in these states alone in 2008.

Motivation Gap?

Voter turnout for this presidential primary has been enormous on both sides, but the Democratic contest shows turnout that was previously unimaginable. As the graph shows, Democratic caucuses and primaries have seen far greater voter participation, with turnout dwarfing Republican turnout in the 10 most highly attended contests. This difference amounts to a severe motivation gap, which might prove difficult for Republicans to overcome. A recent Gallup poll showcased this motivation gap, with six out of 10 respondents saying that both Obama and Clinton were better than most presidential candidates during their lifetimes. In contrast, most Republicans viewed John McCain as neither better nor worse than prior candidates, and barely half of the party's supporters said they would be satisfied if he won the party's presidential nomination. A depressed turnout on the Republican side could be crucial for Democratic aspirations in congressional elections as well.

High Turnout in Colorado Could Lead to Gains at All Levels

Colorado is an increasingly important state for Democrats; in 2008 they have a real opportunity to win the presidential race, a Senate seat, and a House seat. Victories at these three levels would firmly cement Colorado as a new blue state out West. All year long, the GOP has made claims that it was going to stop the Democratic momentum in Colorado that has been seen since Senator Ken Salazar won in 2004, but what the presidential primary shows is that Coloradoans are increasingly motivated to vote for Democrats in 2008. On Super Tuesday, turnout in the Democratic primary was higher than in the Republican race in 60 percent of counties, including Douglas County, which is one of the fastest growing counties in Colorado and a Republican stronghold. Overall, Democratic turnout outpaced Republican by a more than 2-to-1 margin. The majority of areas where Republican turnout was higher were small rural counties with sparse population. In fact, Weld County is the only county where more than 2,000 votes were cast and GOP turnout was higher than Democratic turnout. As the graph indicates, Democratic turnout was strong in all areas and nearly matched Republican turnout even in heavily Republican areas where Democratic performance is low.

While turnout on Election Day will obviously not be this lopsided, it shows the excitement surrounding the Democratic candidates. If this excitement holds throughout the campaign, prospects for winning down-ticket races will improve. Democratic candidate Mark Udall is locked in what is sure to be a close Senate race with former Congressman Bob Schaffer, but a motivated Democratic base would give Udall an advantage. Udall enjoys significant financial advantage, and polling has consistently shown him slightly ahead. A massive turnout among Democrats on Election Day could deliver the seat. In addition to the Senate race, there is an opportunity for Democrats to unseat Marilyn Musgrave in the 4th District. If the primary was any indication of voter motivation for the general election, then Democrats could have a strong chance to win the race. Democratic turnout in key areas such as Larimer County was astonishing, as 76 percent of the total vote there was in the Democratic primary, which is 30 percent higher than Democratic performance for the county. If voter motivation is an accurate barometer, then things look very promising for Democrats in Colorado .

Virginia , a Key Battleground, Has a Motivated Democratic Base

Virginia represents the best opportunity for Democrats to make inroads in the South in the 2008 presidential election. The turnout for the Democratic primary on February 12 reinforced our optimism; it was more than double that for the GOP race. While it is true that the Republican race is close to being decided, the sheer size of the difference cannot be ignored. Democratic turnout exceeded Republican by a more than 2-to-1 margin in Virginia . Even more important than the statewide difference, turnout in counties that are crucial to Democratic success was especially high. For example, in Loudon County , one of the fastest growing counties in the state, the Democratic turnout was more than two and a half times the Republican turnout. The changing demographics of Loudon represent a microcosm of wider changes that have turned Northern Virginia into a Democratic stronghold. Outside that area, where Republicans generally dominate, the numbers are even more telling. For example, in Prince William County , formerly solidly Republican, participation in the Democratic primary was more than double that of the Republican primary. As an earlier issue of the Election Insider showed, Virginia is becoming more of a battleground state with each passing year.

In 2008, Virginia Democrats have the chance to win the state's 13 electoral votes, a Senate seat, and two House seats. A clean sweep in 2008 would give Democrats their first consistently blue state in the South in decades. It is unwise to make predictions, but at this point it seems unlikely that Republican Jim Gilmore will be able to significantly challenge Democrat Mark Warner in the Senate race. The race will not be as lopsided as suggested by some of the early polls, which gave Warner a 30-point lead in some cases, but it is likely that Warner will prevail. Tom Davis's retirement at the end of the term offers Democrats a great opportunity to capture the 11th District, which is made up of Fairfax and Prince William counties, where Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have recently scored convincing victories. NCEC believes that the 11th District represents the best opportunity for a Democratic pickup nationwide.

The 2nd District in Virginia could potentially be very competitive, as the demographic shifts seen in Northern Virginia have extended out to the Virginia Beach area, which is a key area in this district. Currently, there are three solid candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, any of whom could make this a competitive race.

There is a long way to go before ballots are cast in November, but at this point the country is increasingly tuned in to what is happening on the Democratic side, and Republicans are scrambling to unite behind a candidate that lacks the support of their base. This could potentially be a very prosperous year for Democrats, and NCEC is steadfastly working to turn this momentum into reality by providing candidates the technological know-how to succeed. We've been fighting for the progressive cause for 60 years, and we realize the magnitude of the task at hand. Please contribute.