Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
NCEC Analysis Shows Democrats Attracting More Voters in GOP Territory
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow. In a 2004 frame of mind, increasing populations in these areas spelled doom for Democrats as President George W. Bush garnered a 3-million-vote plurality in America's exurban counties. But analyzing President Barack Obama's victory shows that Democrats are making progress in these areas that could lead to extended success in the future. President Obama ate into the Republican advantage by nearly 900,000 votes in exurban counties and carried a majority of suburban counties. Improved Democratic performance in these areas could have a significant effect on the coming congressional elections in 2010, as new districts are becoming competitive. NCEC has recognized these trends and we are working to pinpoint new areas of opportunity for Democratic candidates.
New Opportunities Arise in California as Demographics Shift
After the 2000 redistricting went into effect, it was widely assumed that all 53 California congressional districts had become noncompetitive. For the next three elections cycles, this assumption held true, as only one congressional district, California 11, changed hands when the Democrats won it in 2006. Even this Democratic victory could be classified as an anomaly, because the seat became competitive following the discovery of a financial scandal involving long-time Republican incumbent Richard Pombo. While no seats in California changed hands in 2008, the results did show that several Republicans have now become legitimately vulnerable. President Obama won several Republican districts in California—CA-03, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-50—on his way to winning a stunning 62.2% of the major party vote. This showing outpaced John Kerry's 2004 performance by 7.2%, a significant increase. In a positive trend that is similar to developments in states such as Colorado and Virginia, President Obama's strong performance materialized by way of gains in suburban and exurban counties. In California, Obama won 50.2% of the vote in counties defined by NCEC as exurban and 57% in suburban counties close to large cities.
Overall, Obama won these counties by 695,000 votes; in contrast, Kerry suffered an overall loss in these counties in 2004. Looking ahead, it is clear that California could be a pivotal battleground state in the 2010 elections. Four Republican House members won narrow victories in their respective districts in 2008: Dan Lungren (CA-03), 52.9%; Tom McClintock (CA-04), 50.2%; Brian Bilbray (CA-50), 52.7%%; and, in a shocker, Ken Calvert (CA-44), only 51.7%. NCEC believes that these races likely will be competitive again this election cycle. Comparing Obama's performance in these districts on a county-by-county basis with that of the 2006 Democratic congressional candidate shows how staggering these changes are. NCEC is working hard to expose positive trends at the precinct level in order to give our future candidates the best opportunity to win in 2010. NCEC's expertise coupled with strong candidates can produce victories in these districts. In a positive sign, Democrat Bill Durston who came some close to winning CA-03 last November has already announced that he will run again in 2010. Additionally, Bill Hedrick, who nearly pulled off a shocker in CA-44, has also announced that he will run again in 2010.
California's Developments Mirror Other States
As alluded to earlier, the developments being seen in California are an extension of trends seen in other states such as Colorado and Virginia. The main factor is the increased support for Democrats in fast-growing suburban areas. The suburban vote accounts for more than 50% of the nationwide vote. More specifically, suburban areas located just outside of an urban environment now account for 40% of the nationwide vote. In 2008, increased Democratic support in these areas was a major difference maker. Obama achieved a 5 million vote plurality in these areas, reversing a net-loss suffered by John Kerry in 2004. Overall,
Obama outpaced Kerry by 5.2 million votes in these suburban areas. Combined with a massive plurality in America's urban and large city areas - just under 10 million votes--the predictable Republican margins in rural and micropolitan counties - almost 3 million votes--hardly impacted the ultimate outcome. What this could all mean for future elections is that as suburban areas gain diversity and continue to support Democrats, while exurbs start to vote more like suburbs, the electoral trajectory for the Republican Party becomes much more complicated. Noticing these subtle changes is where NCEC plays a crucial role. We produce the data that allows Democratic candidates to take advantage of these crucial developments. In close races, we make the difference.
County |
2006 US House Dem % |
2008 US House Dem % |
2008 President Obama % |
California District 3 |
|||
Alpine |
50% |
54% |
61% |
Amador |
34% |
39% |
42% |
Calaveras |
35% |
41% |
42% |
Sacramento |
39% |
44% |
50% |
Solano |
41% |
45% |
48% |
CA-03 |
38% |
44% |
49% |
California District 4 |
|||
Butte |
39% |
48% |
41% |
El Dorado |
44% |
49% |
44% |
Lassen |
33% |
37% |
31% |
Modoc |
34% |
37% |
30% |
Nevada |
54% |
58% |
51% |
Placer |
47% |
49% |
43% |
Plumas |
44% |
52% |
43% |
Sacramento |
41% |
47% |
40% |
Sierra |
39% |
50% |
37% |
CA-04 |
46% |
50% |
44% |
California District 25 |
|||
Inyo |
35% |
45% |
44% |
Los Angeles |
34% |
40% |
50% |
Mono |
43% |
45% |
56% |
San Bernardino |
41% |
49% |
49% |
CA-25 |
36% |
42% |
49% |
California District 26 |
|||
Los Angeles |
38% |
40% |
52% |
San Bernardino |
38% |
40% |
50% |
CA-26 |
38% |
40% |
51% |
California District 44 |
|||
Orange |
29% |
37% |
40% |
Riverside |
41% |
53% |
52% |
CA-44 |
38% |
48% |
50% |
California District 45 |
|||
Riverside |
41% |
43% |
51% |
CA-45 |
41% |
43% |
51% |
California District 48 |
|||
Orange |
37% |
40% |
49% |
CA-48 |
37% |
40% |
49% |
California District 50 |
|||
San Diego |
43% |
45% |
51% |
CA-50 |
43% |
45% |
51% |
