Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
February 28 Election Insider
Redistricting Battle Could Change American Politics for a Generation
While the buildup to the presidential campaign gets all the headlines, there is a story below the surface that could have a much more far-reaching effect than the election in 2008. The redistricting battle set to take place in 2010 could fundamentally change politics, with lines being redrawn all over the country. Republicans will try to seize the opportunity to ensure a GOP-dominated government for years to come, by gerrymandering district lines, and drawing new gerrymandered districts in red states like Texas, which will receive new districts due to population gain. NCEC is leading the charge to make sure that this doesn’t happen. We are already preparing to defend and advance Democratic interests in the redistricting process, but this fight is far from decided.
NCEC Targeting Helped End GOP Domination
The 2006 election stopped a trend of Republican domination in elections at all levels of government. From 1994 to 2004, Democrats had lost 9 governorships, 13 Senate seats, 50 House seats, and 19 state legislative bodies. Our victory in 2006 was a large reversal: we picked up 6 governorships and 6 Senate seats, we saw a net change of 26 House seats, and we regained 10 state legislative bodies. This was due to an unmotivated Republican base and massive Democratic turnout, both of which are not likely to be maintained given that 2006 saw the highest off-year election turnout since 1994 and Republican turnout was down 20%–30%. Even with these factors in place, we did not overwhelm the GOP with landslide victories; we performed well in close races, with 66 of our districts in the House carried by 10% margins or less. Clearly it will take a massive effort to maintain and extend our current majorities in Congress. In 2006, NCEC provided our precinct targeting to more than 200 federal candidates, as well as to the state Democratic parties, which dispensed it to state and local candidates. For the next cycle, NCEC is working at an accelerated pace to provide our targeting to candidates in key districts at an earlier point in the cycle, to increase readiness come election season.
Victories at State Level Are Vital in Terms of Redistricting
The main key to protecting Democratic districts from GOP gerrymandering is to control as many governorships and state legislative bodies as possible, so that we can determine district lines and block Republican attempts to shut us out. We've already witnessed their determination in 2003, when Republicans redrew districts in the state of Texas and effectively ended competition in all but a few congressional districts. Perhaps the biggest loss for Democrats in 2006 was the race for governor of Florida , which will most likely see a gain in seats after 2010. With control of the governor's mansion and the Florida state legislature, Republicans will be able to redraw the districts in Florida to give the advantage. Therefore, this race will be equally as important in 2010, so that we can block their efforts.
Redistricting Could Change Presidential Politics
The 2010 Census and subsequent redistricting will have a large impact on presidential politics as well. Early forecasting suggests that many red states like Georgia , Texas , and Utah are going to gain electoral votes and Democratic states like Illinois , Massachusetts , and New York are set to lose electoral votes, due to population changes. This will undoubtedly increase the importance of states like Arizona , Colorado , and Florida in presidential-election years, when Democrats will have to start finding ways to win. The graph below shows that population shifts over the last several years continue to favor the GOP in terms of the Electoral College, which means that new states will play a pivotal role in determining who becomes President.
NCEC is leading the Democratic effort to prepare the party for redistricting; we are taking on this task in conjunction with our precinct targeting. The next two election cycles may hold the fate of American politics for a generation, and NCEC is right at the forefront.
