Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Democrats Win Hastert's District, What Does it Mean for 2008?
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries. Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis and captured the House seat long held by former Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert. The fourteenth district in Illinois , which Foster won, is traditionally solid Republican, and his victory showcases certain potential trends that are positive for Democrats not only in Illinois but nationwide. NCEC provided the Foster campaign with our targeting, which helped them identify Democrats all over the district and helped produce this unexpected victory. If the trends that led to this victory hold, Republicans are vulnerable all over the country.
What Do the Results Show?
Republicans were no doubt favored to hold on to this district; the makeup of the district should theoretically have favored them, as a large portion of it comprises affluent suburbs and exurbs of Chicago, a portion of the population that formerly supported Republicans overwhelmingly. John Kerry received just 44 percent of the vote in this district in 2004. The Democratic victory in this district is symptomatic of a larger problem facing the GOP: dwindling support in suburban and exurban areas. In previous Election Insiders , we have shown that a large part of Democratic success in 2006 was due to the increased amount of vote share in these areas. Suburban districts such as AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-07, FL-22, NH-02, NY-19, PA-07, PA-08, and TX-22 were all won by Democrats, and these suburban districts accounted for a significant share of the 30 seats won by Democrats in 2006. Barack Obama also showcased some power as a campaigner as he campaigned for Foster, and his immense popularity in Illinois no doubt helped Foster's cause.
Additionally, the Democratic victory in the fourteenth district also shows that Republicans are increasingly vulnerable in Illinois , which could lead to more House seats for the Democrats. Close races are expected in IL-10 and IL-11, both districts that are far more Democratic than IL-14. John Kerry won the tenth district in 2004, and Democratic candidate Dan Seals gave Congressman Mark Kirk a scare in 2006, winning 47 percent of the vote in an underfunded effort. Seals is back for a rematch, and early polls have suggested that this will be a tight race. Jerry Weller has announced his retirement in the eleventh district, and this open-seat contest represents a great opportunity for Democrats to capture this long-GOP-held seat. In 2006, Democrat Robert Pavich received 45 percent of the vote when he ran against Weller, which is a positive sign that the race will be competitive without an incumbent. The district's most populous area, Will County , has seen an influx of young suburban families, which could help Democrats. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has announced her candidacy for the Democrats, giving them a well-known, popular candidate in the race.
Republicans Are Vulnerable in Suburban Districts All Over the Country
The results in IL-14 last week suggest that Republicans in suburban districts could be increasingly vulnerable nationwide. If the conditions that produced Bill Foster's victory hold, Democrats have a strong chance to capture seats in districts such as CT-04, MI-09, NJ-03, and NJ-07—all suburban districts that favor Democrats far more greatly than IL-14 does. The aforementioned districts are all places that John Kerry either won or came extremely close to winning. Republican retirements in NJ-03 and NJ-07 make these districts even more competitive. If the suburban vote continues to shift toward Democrats, Republicans could be in real trouble.
District |
Democratic Candidate |
Republican Candidate |
Cong '04 Dem % |
Pres '04 Dem % |
Cong '06 Dem % |
CT-04 |
TBD (Primary Aug '08) |
Chris Shays |
47.6% |
53.1% |
48.2% |
IL-10 |
Dan Seals | Mark Kirk | 35.9% |
52.8% |
46.6% |
IL-11 |
Debbie Halvorson |
TBD (Primary March '08) |
41.3% |
46.3% |
44.9% |
MI-09 |
TBD (Primary Aug 5) |
Joe Knollenberg |
40.4% |
49.2% |
47.2% |
NJ-03 |
Jon Adler |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
35.3% |
48.7% |
41.2% |
NJ-07 |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
42.3% |
49.2% |
46.6% |
NCEC Plays a Vital Role in the Democratic Effort
As mentioned above, the Foster campaign was using NCEC data when they were coming up with a strategy for their unexpected upset. We at NCEC are working around the clock to complete targeting for every state and congressional district in the country in order to give Democrats in every race the technical know-how to win in November. Our targeting and consultation is made possible by donations from our supporters. Please contribute today.
