Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
Democrats Win Hastert's District, What Does it Mean for 2008?
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries. Democrat Bill Foster defeated Republican Jim Oberweis and captured the House seat long held by former Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert. The fourteenth district in Illinois , which Foster won, is traditionally solid Republican, and his victory showcases certain potential trends that are positive for Democrats not only in Illinois but nationwide. NCEC provided the Foster campaign with our targeting, which helped them identify Democrats all over the district and helped produce this unexpected victory. If the trends that led to this victory hold, Republicans are vulnerable all over the country.
What Do the Results Show?
Republicans were no doubt favored to hold on to this district; the makeup of the district should theoretically have favored them, as a large portion of it comprises affluent suburbs and exurbs of Chicago, a portion of the population that formerly supported Republicans overwhelmingly. John Kerry received just 44 percent of the vote in this district in 2004. The Democratic victory in this district is symptomatic of a larger problem facing the GOP: dwindling support in suburban and exurban areas. In previous Election Insiders , we have shown that a large part of Democratic success in 2006 was due to the increased amount of vote share in these areas. Suburban districts such as AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-07, FL-22, NH-02, NY-19, PA-07, PA-08, and TX-22 were all won by Democrats, and these suburban districts accounted for a significant share of the 30 seats won by Democrats in 2006. Barack Obama also showcased some power as a campaigner as he campaigned for Foster, and his immense popularity in Illinois no doubt helped Foster's cause.
Additionally, the Democratic victory in the fourteenth district also shows that Republicans are increasingly vulnerable in Illinois , which could lead to more House seats for the Democrats. Close races are expected in IL-10 and IL-11, both districts that are far more Democratic than IL-14. John Kerry won the tenth district in 2004, and Democratic candidate Dan Seals gave Congressman Mark Kirk a scare in 2006, winning 47 percent of the vote in an underfunded effort. Seals is back for a rematch, and early polls have suggested that this will be a tight race. Jerry Weller has announced his retirement in the eleventh district, and this open-seat contest represents a great opportunity for Democrats to capture this long-GOP-held seat. In 2006, Democrat Robert Pavich received 45 percent of the vote when he ran against Weller, which is a positive sign that the race will be competitive without an incumbent. The district's most populous area, Will County , has seen an influx of young suburban families, which could help Democrats. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has announced her candidacy for the Democrats, giving them a well-known, popular candidate in the race.
Republicans Are Vulnerable in Suburban Districts All Over the Country
The results in IL-14 last week suggest that Republicans in suburban districts could be increasingly vulnerable nationwide. If the conditions that produced Bill Foster's victory hold, Democrats have a strong chance to capture seats in districts such as CT-04, MI-09, NJ-03, and NJ-07—all suburban districts that favor Democrats far more greatly than IL-14 does. The aforementioned districts are all places that John Kerry either won or came extremely close to winning. Republican retirements in NJ-03 and NJ-07 make these districts even more competitive. If the suburban vote continues to shift toward Democrats, Republicans could be in real trouble.
District |
Democratic Candidate |
Republican Candidate |
Cong '04 Dem % |
Pres '04 Dem % |
Cong '06 Dem % |
CT-04 |
TBD (Primary Aug '08) |
Chris Shays |
47.6% |
53.1% |
48.2% |
IL-10 |
Dan Seals | Mark Kirk | 35.9% |
52.8% |
46.6% |
IL-11 |
Debbie Halvorson |
TBD (Primary March '08) |
41.3% |
46.3% |
44.9% |
MI-09 |
TBD (Primary Aug 5) |
Joe Knollenberg |
40.4% |
49.2% |
47.2% |
NJ-03 |
Jon Adler |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
35.3% |
48.7% |
41.2% |
NJ-07 |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
TBD (Primary June '08) |
42.3% |
49.2% |
46.6% |
NCEC Plays a Vital Role in the Democratic Effort
As mentioned above, the Foster campaign was using NCEC data when they were coming up with a strategy for their unexpected upset. We at NCEC are working around the clock to complete targeting for every state and congressional district in the country in order to give Democrats in every race the technical know-how to win in November. Our targeting and consultation is made possible by donations from our supporters. Please contribute today.
