Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
March 21 Election Insider
Colorado: A New Blue State in the West?
Over the past two election cycles, we've seen a profound transformation in Colorado as Democrats have gained the governorship, a Senate seat, and two House seats since 2002. Recognizing that opportunity has never been greater for Democrats in Colorado, the 2008 DNC convention will be held in Denver, in an attempt to deliver nine crucial electoral votes to the Democrats in the presidential election. The 2008 election offers an opportunity for increased growth in Colorado, the state is sure to receive more attention in terms of the presidential race, and there is an open Senate seat that will be highly contested.
President: Can the Democratic Trend Extend All the Way to the White House?
The last time a Democratic challenger won the state of Colorado in a presidential election was 1992, when then presidential candidate Bill Clinton carried the state with just 40% of the vote because Ross Perot got 23%. In 1996, as an incumbent, President Clinton narrowly lost the state against Bob Dole by less than a percentage point. Over the last two general election cycles, Colorado rarely received much attention in presidential politics, because it was considered a Republican stronghold. One poll late in 2004 declared the race tied, but that poll proved to be fruitless as President Bush cruised to a 5-point victory. Outside presidential politics, Colorado has undergone a Democratic wave; with the success of Senator Ken Salazar and Governor Bill Ritter in recent statewide elections, it is possible that the right candidate can produce a victory for Democrats. The presence of the DNC convention in Denver represents a shift in attitude concerning the state; it shows that Democrats are serious about winning. If Democratic turnout increases because of the convention, it could make the race very interesting.
Senate: An Open Senate Seat Will Draw a Lot of Attention
Incumbent Senator Wayne Allard is not seeking reelection to a third term, which produces a mixed bag of results for Democrats. Senator Allard hasn't been the most popular figure in Colorado politics, due to his unending support for President Bush, so his presence in the race might have been an advantage for Democrats. However, since the seat will be open, no candidate will enjoy the power of incumbency. Representative Mark Udall (CO-02) is considered a lock for the Democratic nomination; he's a moderate Democrat in the same mold as current Senator Ken Salazar and Governor Bill Ritter, which has been a recipe for success in recent cycles. Name recognition remains an issue for Udall, but as his campaign gets under way, this will improve. The Republicans have several well-known political figures potentially interested in the nomination, including former Representative Bob Schaffer, former Representative Scott McInnis, and current Attorney General John Suthers, but there is no clear front-runner at this time. Senator Allard did not experience wide victory margins in either 1996 or 2002; considering the competitiveness of the Senate race in 2004, this race is sure to be close.
House: Democrats Have Captured Two Seats Since 2002
Since the 2002 election, Democrats have picked up two House seats in Colorado. John Salazar, brother of Senator Ken Salazar, won in the Third District in 2004, and Ed Perlmutter won the Seventh District in 2006. These additions give Democrats a 4–3 advantage in the state in terms of House seats. John Salazar (CO-03) greatly expanded his victory margin from 2004 to 2006, as the graph shows, and his appeal remains strong enough that the Republicans barely put up a fight in 2006. Ed Perlmutter notched a wider-than-expected victory last year in the Seventh District, which has been heavily targeted since its creation in 2002. It is expected that the Seventh District will be close once again in 2008, but Democrats will have the power of incumbency behind them.
House: Can Musgrave Be Defeated?
Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04) is a torchbearer for the religious right wing and has parlayed dirty politics, including racial slurs, into close election victories. However, her margin of victory over the past 3 cycles has continued to diminish. She won by a mere 3-points in 2006, but many considered this our best chance to beat her. Favorable political climate, low approval ratings and the presence of Reform candidate Eric Eidsness, who theoretically was expected to deflect votes away from Musgrave, were factors that put the seat in play in 2006. However, Eidsness may have taken as many votes away from Democratic candidate Angie Paccione as he did from Musgrave. In order for any Democrat to win this seat, the candidate must improve his or her performance in the rural counties of the district and maximize Democratic turnout in liberal-leaning Boulder and Larimer counties. This race will most likely be viewed as a tier-two race, but an effective Democratic candidate might finally beat Musgrave.
