Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
An Early Look at the Pennsylvania Primary
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon. The early primaries have produced a narrow Obama lead, with the Clinton campaign salvaged by victories in Ohio and Texas . The April 22 Pennsylvania primary is a must-win state for Clinton , while Obama concentrates on maintaining a lead in delegates and national total vote.
For the Democratic Party, the most expensive primary season in history has also generated unprecedented voter interests: in states that held primaries in both 2000 and 2004, turnout has increased by an astonishing 93 percent. Moreover, turnout in the Democratic primaries has trumped Republican interest in virtually every marginal congressional district, including most of the districts where Democrats amassed gains in 2006.
Looking at the Pennsylvania electorate, three recent polls suggest that Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Barack Obama. While it is true that Obama is outspending Clinton on television and has garnered interest when he focuses on individual states, Clinton seems likely to hold her lead, for several reasons:
The African-American vote, although important, represents a far smaller share of the electorate in Pennsylvania than it does in the southern states, where Obama ran strongly. Moreover, Philadelphia 's Mayor, Michael Nutter, is a Clinton supporter. Although Obama will likely carry the Philadelphia area, it is possible that Nutter's support will enable Clinton to win more black votes than in other states.
Based on the demographic composition of the Philadelphia suburbs, Obama should amass a plurality in the wealthier and better educated parts of the Philadelphia media market. Combined with support in congressional districts 1 and 2, Obama's popularity in the suburbs should enable him to win a substantial number of delegates in the eastern portion of the state. Even in Ohio , a state that replicates the Pennsylvania electorate in some respects, Obama defeated Clinton in university communities and several high-income suburbs. Yet Clinton still won the state by a 12 percent margin.
Blue-collar cities in Western Pennsylvania favor Clinton at this juncture, and this is likely to propel her to a statewide majority. The blue-collar cities experiencing economic unrest — especially Scranton , Johnstown , Altoona and Wilkes Barre, with older and more blue-collar voters — strongly favor Clinton . Clinton is also ahead in the Pittsburgh area, especially in the 14th congressional district. With an aging population, Western Pennsylvania seems like favorable territory for Clinton .
That leaves a few regions in which neither candidate enjoys an inherent advantage or early lead. If Obama is to make the race competitive, these are the areas where he must make inroads. For example, the Lehigh Valley , formerly a blue-collar enclave, has experienced a modest economic revival. The immersion of younger, more white-collar residents affords Obama an opportunity in Allentown and Bethlehem . This area should also test Clinton 's resonance with Hispanic voters, as they are a more important element in the 15th congressional district than in other parts of the state.
Another intriguing area for Obama is the emerging southeastern part of Pennsylvania . Although it has been heavily Republican in general elections, younger suburban Democrats are migrating to York and Lancaster in surprisingly large numbers. Obama could carry the 16th and 18th congressional districts encompassing York and Lancaster. Finally, student support emanating from Penn State University should assist Obama in the 5th congressional district.
In conclusion, Pennsylvania 's demographics, along with the support of Governor Rendell, Mayor Nutter and other officials, confer a strong advantage to Hillary Clinton. It will be a major upset if Obama erases Clinton 's lead. However, it is quite plausible that Obama will garner a sizable number of Pennsylvania delegates, maintaining his national lead in pledge delegates.
Looking toward the November election, three recent polls suggest that John McCain is even with or ahead of both Clinton and Obama. Pennsylvania has supported a Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1988. Without Pennsylvania 's 21 electoral votes, a Democratic general election victory is highly unlikely.
