Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
March 28 Election Insider
Democrats may be on the Offensive Again in 2008
The 2006 election was solely about taking back control of Congress, and we achieved our goal. Conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats will move from offense to defense, seeking to protect our slim majorities; however, due to possible retirement of several GOP incumbents and the continued existence of a positive political environment, it is possible that Democrats will be on the offensive once again on election night 2008.
Democrats Must Hold 61 Districts Carried Twice by Bush
If there is any reason for GOP optimism concerning the 2008 election, it is that Democrats will seek to defend 61 districts that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004. However, many of these Democratic incumbents are well-entrenched members of Congress who have withstood tough races in the past. Additionally, there are several freshman Democratic members of Congress who won in very moderate districts in 2006, which means they will be prime targets in 2008; however, they will have the power of incumbency behind them. NCEC is working alongside these candidates by moving at an elevated pace to provide their campaigns with our precinct targeting at an earlier point in the cycle. Maintaining our congressional majorities is our number one goal for the upcoming cycle.
Close Races from 2006 Present Opportunities for Democrats
The situation is by no means doom and gloom for Democrats as 2008 approaches. Thirty- four Republicans won by 10% or less in 2006, and many of them will be targets for Democrats as the election draws near. Additionally, our success in the last cycle has caused many solid candidates to already commit to running in 2008. Thus far, 16 candidates have committed to running, including Charlie Brown (CA-04), Daniel Seals (IL-10), and Larry Kissell (NC-08), all candidates who ran in 2006 and have name recognition with the public. The table below shows all races that were decided by 10% or less in 2006.
Political Environment May Be Similar to 2006
There is no question that the wealth of Republican political scandal, an unpopular president, and an unpopular war contributed to a favorable political environment in 2006. Previously it was considered almost impossible that a pro-Democratic environment of this magnitude would again exist in 2008, but this scenario seems more likely with each passing week. New scandals have emerged in a variety of places, including the Walter Reed Army hospital, the FBI, and the Justice Department, all which reflect poorly on Republicans, and the public is paying attention. According to PEW Research Center's most recent installment of the Weekly News Interest Index, three of the four most followed news stories were the Iraq war, the Walter Reed scandal, and the developing US attorneys scandal. Each story amounts to more bad press for the GOP.
President Bush's approval rating remains in the low 30s, the most recent Gallup Poll placing it at 32%; barring any unforeseen political victory, it may never see the 40s through the rest of his presidency. Only President Truman had a lower approval rating at this point in a two-term presidency. The president now plans to veto the latest appropriations bill for the war in Iraq because it contains a premise that calls for the withdrawal of American troops, which the American public supports. Support for the president among the crucial independent segment of the population languishes at 28%, which bodes well for Democrats. Voter turnout will increase on both sides in the next cycle, and the effect of the presidential race will be felt at all levels, but if public sentiment is on our side once again, there is reason to be very optimistic.
