Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
March 28 Election Insider
Democrats may be on the Offensive Again in 2008
The 2006 election was solely about taking back control of Congress, and we achieved our goal. Conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats will move from offense to defense, seeking to protect our slim majorities; however, due to possible retirement of several GOP incumbents and the continued existence of a positive political environment, it is possible that Democrats will be on the offensive once again on election night 2008.
Democrats Must Hold 61 Districts Carried Twice by Bush
If there is any reason for GOP optimism concerning the 2008 election, it is that Democrats will seek to defend 61 districts that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004. However, many of these Democratic incumbents are well-entrenched members of Congress who have withstood tough races in the past. Additionally, there are several freshman Democratic members of Congress who won in very moderate districts in 2006, which means they will be prime targets in 2008; however, they will have the power of incumbency behind them. NCEC is working alongside these candidates by moving at an elevated pace to provide their campaigns with our precinct targeting at an earlier point in the cycle. Maintaining our congressional majorities is our number one goal for the upcoming cycle.
Close Races from 2006 Present Opportunities for Democrats
The situation is by no means doom and gloom for Democrats as 2008 approaches. Thirty- four Republicans won by 10% or less in 2006, and many of them will be targets for Democrats as the election draws near. Additionally, our success in the last cycle has caused many solid candidates to already commit to running in 2008. Thus far, 16 candidates have committed to running, including Charlie Brown (CA-04), Daniel Seals (IL-10), and Larry Kissell (NC-08), all candidates who ran in 2006 and have name recognition with the public. The table below shows all races that were decided by 10% or less in 2006.
Political Environment May Be Similar to 2006
There is no question that the wealth of Republican political scandal, an unpopular president, and an unpopular war contributed to a favorable political environment in 2006. Previously it was considered almost impossible that a pro-Democratic environment of this magnitude would again exist in 2008, but this scenario seems more likely with each passing week. New scandals have emerged in a variety of places, including the Walter Reed Army hospital, the FBI, and the Justice Department, all which reflect poorly on Republicans, and the public is paying attention. According to PEW Research Center's most recent installment of the Weekly News Interest Index, three of the four most followed news stories were the Iraq war, the Walter Reed scandal, and the developing US attorneys scandal. Each story amounts to more bad press for the GOP.
President Bush's approval rating remains in the low 30s, the most recent Gallup Poll placing it at 32%; barring any unforeseen political victory, it may never see the 40s through the rest of his presidency. Only President Truman had a lower approval rating at this point in a two-term presidency. The president now plans to veto the latest appropriations bill for the war in Iraq because it contains a premise that calls for the withdrawal of American troops, which the American public supports. Support for the president among the crucial independent segment of the population languishes at 28%, which bodes well for Democrats. Voter turnout will increase on both sides in the next cycle, and the effect of the presidential race will be felt at all levels, but if public sentiment is on our side once again, there is reason to be very optimistic.
