Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
March 9 Election Insider
New Mexico is Becoming a Key Battleground for 2008
In recent years politics in New Mexico have become increasingly compelling. The last two Presidential contests have featured down-to-the-wire races in the state, Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has barely won two successive House campaigns, and popular Governor Bill Richardson recently decided to seek the Presidency in 2008. Even with all this competition, the one seemingly safe concept was that incumbent Senator Pete Domenici would be safely reelected cycle after cycle. However, the release of recent facts concerning Republican activities during an ongoing investigation threatens to turn New Mexico 's political landscape upside down and present a previously unlikely opportunity to gain a crucial Senate seat.
New Mexico Is a Crucial State for any Democratic Nominee
The last two Presidential elections have been decided by razor-thin margins in New Mexico . In 2000 Al Gore won the state by fewer than 3,000 votes. President Bush carried the state by fewer than 6,000 in 2004, which ended a string of Democratic dominance in the state. This state is sure to be extremely close in 2008. The presence of popular Governor Bill Richardson on any Democratic ticket would significantly increase the likelihood of bringing this state back into the win column. However, if he is not included on the ticket, this will be another tight race, as Democrats try to find ways to expand their victories in the western part of the country.
Both Domenici and Wilson Mentioned in Developing Scandal
Former U.S. attorney David C. Iglesias testified Tuesday in back-to-back House and Senate hearings that he received improper phone calls in October of 2006 from both Senator Pete Domenici and Rep. Heather Wilson soliciting information into the ongoing investigation into a local Democrat. The Senate's ethics manual says Senate offices should refrain from intervening in pending court actions "until the matter has reached a resolution in the courts." Iglesias alleged that both Sen. Domenici and Rep. Wilson were trying to obtain information about whether or not sealed indictments would be handed down before the 2006 election. Obviously, the timing of these actions is key, as Republicans were looking for any news possible to change public sentiment. These allegations among others have set off a new round of ethics probes into the former GOP congress. The affects that this scandal could have on New Mexico politics could be far reaching.
Scandal Could Make Wilson Even More Vulnerable in 2008.
Congresswoman Heather Wilson narrowly escaped defeat in 2006. She defeated Democratic candidate Patricia Madrid by fewer than 900 votes, and is considered a vulnerable candidate in 2008. Her alleged involvement in the potential scandal mentioned above will only increase her vulnerability. The shadow of Governor Bill Richardson may cast itself over this race. If he were to be the Democratic nominee for President or on the Democratic ticket, it could increase Democratic turnout in this congressional district. Once again finding a solid candidate to run for the Democrats will be crucial.
Change is Not Expected in Other House Districts
The remaining two Congressional districts in New Mexico are home to popular incumbents who will likely be reelected in 2008. Both Republican Steve Pearce (R-NM02) and Democrat Tom Udall (D-NM03) easily won reelection in 2006, and have remained outside the brewing scandal. Pearce received 60% of the vote in 2006, while Udall enjoyed 75% of the vote in his district.
Senate Pickup Still Unlikely Without a Great Candidate
Prior to the release of this story, NCEC did not consider the coming Senate race in New Mexico to be a first-tier race. However, the possible effects of this story may change our outlook. Senator Domenici handily won reelection in 2002 with 65% of the vote. Conventional wisdom would suggest that he would cruise to victory in 2008 unless there were an event that changed the public's view of him, much as former Virginia Senator George Allen's infamous “macaca” statement did for him in 2006. While the allegations involving Domenici are nowhere near as blatant as the Allen quote, they could evoke memories of the corruption that plagued the GOP-led congress, which helped lead to the Democratic sweep in 2006. Depending on the quality of the Democratic candidate, this Senate race may become interesting. Domenici has already acknowledged the unethical contact with Iglesias and has since apologized, but he denies that he was applying pressure. If the investigation continues, the race could become winnable for the right Democratic candidate.
Richardson for Senate?
Governor Bill Richardson continues to be a popular figure in his state. A January 11 American Research Group poll showed that New Mexicans prefer Richardson over any of the big-name contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. However, this is not the sentiment in nationwide polls, which have Richardson running well behind the three front-runners. His foreign policy credentials make him an attractive vice presidential nominee for Democrats, but if he were to abandon his presidential campaign in favor of a shot at the Senate, this race would become close overnight. This whole scenario is mere speculation, but if he were to run for Senate he would make the most attractive possible candidate. However, it is very unlikely that he will decide to forego his current bid for the Presidency.
The developing scandal may have a large influence on the 2008 election in New Mexico . Heather Wilson may have finally run out of luck, and the Presidential race is sure to be very close. This state will be an interesting one to watch on election night.
