Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
Democrats Have the Advantage in the Upcoming Special Election in LA-06
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible. A significantly higher turnout in the Democratic primary as opposed to the Republican primary suggests an increasingly motivated Democratic base. The special election matchup between Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux and Woody Jenkins shapes up well for the Democrats. The following analysis of the primary shows that the Republicans face an uphill battle to defeat Cazayoux.
Democratic Performance in the district is 47.8%. Therefore, it is highly encouraging to note that 58.7% of the total vote was cast in the Democratic primary for Cazayoux and Jackson, opposed to 41.3% for Calgone and Jenkins in the Republican primary. Additionally, when the Cazayoux-Jenkins vote is isolated, Cazayoux takes 56.6%, compared with 43.4% for Jenkins.
A look at the primary results shows that East Baton Rouge will be where this election is won or lost. According to the results, 65.1% of the total Democratic primary vote was cast in East Baton Rouge and an even higher percentage—67.2%—of the total vote in the Republican primary came from the same area. While Cazayoux won the overall race, he did lose this portion of East Baton Rouge to Jackson, who drew the majority of his support from this area. More than 77% of Jackson 's vote emanated from East Baton Rouge , where he won 999 more votes than Cazayoux. Clearly, the disposition of the vote cast for Jackson and Calogne, the two losing candidates, in East Baton Rouge Parish—a total of 18,202 votes—will be the deciding factor in the final election. If the Calogne vote unites behind Jenkins and Democrats fail to generate high turnout in the African-American precincts, Jenkins would win. However, both of those events would have to materialize in order for Jenkins to reverse the unfavorable results of last Saturday. Needless to say, a strong effort between now and May 3 in the African-American areas will be needed for the Democrats to win the special election.
To a lesser extent, the same pattern was evident in East Feliciana and St. Helena, two heavily African-American parishes that turned out for Jackson . His plurality in these two parishes was only 265 votes, as their share of the total vote was only 5.6%. Again, it will be crucial for the Cazayoux campaign to get these voters to turnout on May 3.
The other deciding factor for the final election is turnout in Ascension and Livingston . Simply stated: Jenkins can't win unless turnout is significantly higher in both areas. Democratic Performance in Ascension is 34.9%, yet Cazayoux won 43 more votes than Jenkins in the runoff. Similarly, Cazayoux won 244 more votes than Jenkins in Livingston , where Democratic Performance is an anemic 37.7%. However, turnout was uncharacteristically low, as Ascension represented only 4.5% of the runoff vote, compared with 7.5% in the typical general election, while Livingston represented 12.2% of the vote in the runoff, compared with a historical 15.8%. Clearly, the Republicans will try to improve turnout in both parishes. Livingston was actually Jenkins' best area, relative to Calogne.
Other elements that could make a difference include reinforcing the strong showing by Cazayoux in West Baton Rouge , where he defeated Jenkins by a 2–1 margin, amassing just under 1,000 more votes than Jenkins. West Baton Rouge 's share of the vote was 3.9%, matching historical general election turnout. However, the Republican turnout was anemic in West Baton Rouge , enabling Cazayoux to exceed Democratic Performance by 27.5%. Pointe Creek was another important factor in Cazayoux's victory. He won more than 90% of the primary vote and 88.1% of the total vote between Jenkins and Cazayoux. The turnout share of the Pointe Creek vote was double what the historical benchmarks revealed, underscoring the importance of this parish in the next election. However, it appears that the Republican vote was dormant in Pointe Creek, and the Jenkins campaign will recognize that.
When looking at voter turnout differences from special primaries as opposed to special general elections nationwide, it is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions about what is to come in May. In totality, 59,370 votes were cast in the primary. Cazayoux won 19,803 and Jenkins 15,177. As for turnout in the final special election, turnout was lower in the Ohio 5 general special election than in the primary but higher in the California 51 general special election than in the primary. In the Illinois 14 special election, turnout in the general election was just under 100,000 and not overly dissimilar from the primary total. Overall, 118,727 votes were cast in the Ohio 5 special election and 158,033 in the California 51 special election.
We should anticipate an increase in turnout over that in the primary, if both parties spend resources here. We at NCEC assume that turnout will not top 80,000, and if the increase in percentage terms is similar to those seen in California 51, the highest differential in recent years, not including Ohio 2, turnout would be closer to 70,000. Overall, if the African-American vote turns out in East Baton Rouge, St. Helena and East Feliciana, Cazayoux's strength in Livingston and Ascension should lead him to victory.
Democrats have been running more than 2.2% ahead of past norms in most open-seat elections, and the combined vote for Jackson and Cazayoux exceeded the norm by 10.9%. Given the facts that Jackson was an underfinanced candidate and there wasn't a huge turnout in African-American areas, a medium performance in the black precincts might be enough.
NCEC believes that Cazayoux should win this race. The underlying elements are even more favorable than in other recent special elections, such as Illinois 14, and we have at least as good a candidate. However, we shouldn't underestimate Jenkins. He carried this area against Mary Landrieu in the 1996 U.S. Senate race.
