Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Democrats Have the Advantage in the Upcoming Special Election in LA-06
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible. A significantly higher turnout in the Democratic primary as opposed to the Republican primary suggests an increasingly motivated Democratic base. The special election matchup between Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux and Woody Jenkins shapes up well for the Democrats. The following analysis of the primary shows that the Republicans face an uphill battle to defeat Cazayoux.
Democratic Performance in the district is 47.8%. Therefore, it is highly encouraging to note that 58.7% of the total vote was cast in the Democratic primary for Cazayoux and Jackson, opposed to 41.3% for Calgone and Jenkins in the Republican primary. Additionally, when the Cazayoux-Jenkins vote is isolated, Cazayoux takes 56.6%, compared with 43.4% for Jenkins.
A look at the primary results shows that East Baton Rouge will be where this election is won or lost. According to the results, 65.1% of the total Democratic primary vote was cast in East Baton Rouge and an even higher percentage—67.2%—of the total vote in the Republican primary came from the same area. While Cazayoux won the overall race, he did lose this portion of East Baton Rouge to Jackson, who drew the majority of his support from this area. More than 77% of Jackson 's vote emanated from East Baton Rouge , where he won 999 more votes than Cazayoux. Clearly, the disposition of the vote cast for Jackson and Calogne, the two losing candidates, in East Baton Rouge Parish—a total of 18,202 votes—will be the deciding factor in the final election. If the Calogne vote unites behind Jenkins and Democrats fail to generate high turnout in the African-American precincts, Jenkins would win. However, both of those events would have to materialize in order for Jenkins to reverse the unfavorable results of last Saturday. Needless to say, a strong effort between now and May 3 in the African-American areas will be needed for the Democrats to win the special election.
To a lesser extent, the same pattern was evident in East Feliciana and St. Helena, two heavily African-American parishes that turned out for Jackson . His plurality in these two parishes was only 265 votes, as their share of the total vote was only 5.6%. Again, it will be crucial for the Cazayoux campaign to get these voters to turnout on May 3.
The other deciding factor for the final election is turnout in Ascension and Livingston . Simply stated: Jenkins can't win unless turnout is significantly higher in both areas. Democratic Performance in Ascension is 34.9%, yet Cazayoux won 43 more votes than Jenkins in the runoff. Similarly, Cazayoux won 244 more votes than Jenkins in Livingston , where Democratic Performance is an anemic 37.7%. However, turnout was uncharacteristically low, as Ascension represented only 4.5% of the runoff vote, compared with 7.5% in the typical general election, while Livingston represented 12.2% of the vote in the runoff, compared with a historical 15.8%. Clearly, the Republicans will try to improve turnout in both parishes. Livingston was actually Jenkins' best area, relative to Calogne.
Other elements that could make a difference include reinforcing the strong showing by Cazayoux in West Baton Rouge , where he defeated Jenkins by a 2–1 margin, amassing just under 1,000 more votes than Jenkins. West Baton Rouge 's share of the vote was 3.9%, matching historical general election turnout. However, the Republican turnout was anemic in West Baton Rouge , enabling Cazayoux to exceed Democratic Performance by 27.5%. Pointe Creek was another important factor in Cazayoux's victory. He won more than 90% of the primary vote and 88.1% of the total vote between Jenkins and Cazayoux. The turnout share of the Pointe Creek vote was double what the historical benchmarks revealed, underscoring the importance of this parish in the next election. However, it appears that the Republican vote was dormant in Pointe Creek, and the Jenkins campaign will recognize that.
When looking at voter turnout differences from special primaries as opposed to special general elections nationwide, it is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions about what is to come in May. In totality, 59,370 votes were cast in the primary. Cazayoux won 19,803 and Jenkins 15,177. As for turnout in the final special election, turnout was lower in the Ohio 5 general special election than in the primary but higher in the California 51 general special election than in the primary. In the Illinois 14 special election, turnout in the general election was just under 100,000 and not overly dissimilar from the primary total. Overall, 118,727 votes were cast in the Ohio 5 special election and 158,033 in the California 51 special election.
We should anticipate an increase in turnout over that in the primary, if both parties spend resources here. We at NCEC assume that turnout will not top 80,000, and if the increase in percentage terms is similar to those seen in California 51, the highest differential in recent years, not including Ohio 2, turnout would be closer to 70,000. Overall, if the African-American vote turns out in East Baton Rouge, St. Helena and East Feliciana, Cazayoux's strength in Livingston and Ascension should lead him to victory.
Democrats have been running more than 2.2% ahead of past norms in most open-seat elections, and the combined vote for Jackson and Cazayoux exceeded the norm by 10.9%. Given the facts that Jackson was an underfinanced candidate and there wasn't a huge turnout in African-American areas, a medium performance in the black precincts might be enough.
NCEC believes that Cazayoux should win this race. The underlying elements are even more favorable than in other recent special elections, such as Illinois 14, and we have at least as good a candidate. However, we shouldn't underestimate Jenkins. He carried this area against Mary Landrieu in the 1996 U.S. Senate race.
