Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
April 18 Election Insider
Democrats are Staying Competitive with GOP in Fundraising
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year. Most important, our most vulnerable members of Congress are posting impressive numbers in comparison to their GOP counterparts in an apparent reversal of fortune from recent cycles.
Democrats in Better Financial Shape for 2008
The first quarter FEC reports depict a positive picture for Democrats as the party finds itself in better financial shape than the Republicans. The strong fundraising demonstrated by Democrats in the 2006 campaign has transitioned into financial superiority for the 2008 campaign thus far. As the graph below shows, when looking at the 68 races that were decided by 10% or less in 2006 the Democratic incumbents have an advantage over the Republicans in both total money received and cash on hand according to their first quarter reports.
Freshman Members Raising Funds at a Frenzied Pace
The new Democratic majority was partially built on seats won in typically Republican areas, in such places as Kansas, Kentucky, and even conservative areas of New York. Therefore, our freshman members of Congress will be most in danger of losing reelection bids. Looking at the first quarter fund-raising reports gives a reason for early optimism, as Democrats have outperformed the fund-raising of recent cycles, but it is early and we'll need every penny. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported that the 29 members in its frontline program, which raises money for vulnerable seats, had raised an average of $300,000 to this point, in comparison with the average $185,000 at this point in the last cycle. Several candidates such as Ron Klein and Tim Mahoney, who both represent conservative-leaning districts in Florida, have done a solid job raising money. Mahoney, who won the sixteenth district, which was Mark Foley's district, has already raised 450K. Ron Klein, who was locked in a tight battle with former representative Clay Shaw in 2006, has raised $600,000. Thus far, Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20) is leading among all freshman House members, but across the board the numbers are encouraging. The new members will need to continue fundraising at an elevated pace, because they will be marked as prime targets by the Republicans.
While our first-quarter numbers are encouraging, targeted Republicans have ramped up their fund-raising as well. Several GOP congressmen who barely survived the 2006 campaign have posted strong figures. It is through these seats that we will seek to extend our fragile majority, and staying close in terms of money will be paramount to our ability to do so. Vern Buchanan, who survived his 2006 only after a recount has already raised $450,000 for his reelection bid, and embattled House member Heather Wilson (NM-01) has been able to raise $325,000, which far surpasses her earlier efforts.
However, a financial advantage will mean far less without the work done by NCEC. Our precinct targeting, media market analysis, and consultation that we provide at no cost to candidates is fundamental to Democratic success. Our technological assistance lets Democratic campaigns know where to find Democratic votes down to the precinct and neighborhood levels, and we've been doing it for 60 years. The services that NCEC provides without charge would cost thousands of dollars and be far less effective if done by another source, and we are expanding our services as we speak. Our ability to produce our targeting is dependent on donations from our members, and we utilize every dollar to the fullest extent. Please contribute.
