Democrats Look to Pick Up as Many as Six Senate Seats in ’08

Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate. Early polls suggest that Democrats could capture as many as six Senate seats, giving them a much stronger majority.

Democrats Look to Capitalize on a Wealth of Targets While the GOP Just Tries to Hold On

Following the 2006 election, when the Democrats captured a thin one-seat majority, it was clear that 2008 would be a year of opportunity for Democrats to expand on their newfound majority, because there were simply more Republicans up for reelection. However, it was thought that expecting the kind of six-seat gain that was seen in 2006 and once again in 2008 was unrealistic. At this point, it would seem that all the stars have come into alignment, as Democrats have a realistic chance to match or outdo their performance in 2006. The table below shows the unprecedented opportunity that Democrats have before them. With 12 Senators up for reelection, Democrats face only one significant challenge, the seat currently held by Mary Landrieu in Louisiana . Formidable challenges were expected in Arkansas , Iowa , and South Dakota , but credible GOP candidates never materialized. On the other hand, retirements, political misfortunes, and favorable demographic shifts have created as many as eight fiercely contested Republican seats.

Early Polls Give Democrats the Advantage

It is obviously too early to tell if polls done six months prior to the election will be accurate when it comes time to start counting ballots, but they are useful for forecasting legitimate vulnerability. As the graph below shows, Democratic candidates are polling very well in the competitive races.

According to these polls, Democrats already have the Senate seats locked up in New Hampshire , New Mexico , and Virginia and hold a small lead in Colorado . Additionally, Mary Landrieu, the only vulnerable Democratic incumbent, holds a strong double-digit lead over Republican John Kennedy. The most surprising race is developing in Alaska , where Democrats suddenly have an opportunity to unseat longtime incumbent Ted Stevens. Below is a brief description of each of the competitive races as they stand right now.

Alaska : Ted Stevens would normally be considered a lock for reelection, but allegations of ethics violations concerning both members of Alaska 's longtime congressional delegation, Ted Stevens and Don Young, have made the political situation in Alaska unusually interesting. The scandal stems from allegations of an unlawful relationship between Stevens and the oil-field services and construction company Veco. Allegedly a year 2000 remodeling of Stevens' home may have been done as an improper gift involving the work of Veco employees at no charge to Stevens. Allegations of corruption swirling around incumbents were a recipe for success for Democrats in 2006, but it remains to be seen if these allegations against Stevens will have an effect.

It appears that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is leaning toward running for the Democrats. After significant cudgeling, Begich has launched an exploratory committee, giving the Democrats their ideal candidate to win this seat, which Stevens has held since 1968.

Colorado : As was shown in a previous Election Insider, Colorado has been trending blue since the 2004 election. In 2008, the state is expected to receive newfound attention in the presidential race as well as be the site of another close Senate race. Congressman Mark Udall (CO-02) is locked in a tight race with former Congressman Bob Schaffer. Most polls have Udall slightly ahead, but in many cases the differential falls within the margin of error. The latest FEC reports show that Udall has a significant financial advantage, with more than $3.6 million in cash on hand, in comparison with $2.1 million for Schaffer. Schaffer additionally has taken some heat from a story that broke recently connecting him to a Jack Abramoff–funded trip to the Northern Mariana Islands .

Louisiana : Senator Mary Landrieu has consistently been seen as a vulnerable Democrat coming into the 2008 election, due in large part to the still-lingering effects of Hurricane Katrina, which fractured the Democratic voting base in New Orleans . However, recent polls have suggested that Landrieu is faring quite well against prospective Republican candidate John N. Kennedy. A poll released in April gave Landrieu a favorability rating of 70%, an astounding figure. Additionally, recent outcomes in Louisiana , such as the special runoff in LA-06 , show that Democratic voting is picking up in new parts of the state, which could benefit Landrieu.

Maine : Recent polls still show Senator Susan Collins well ahead of Democratic Congressman Tom Allen, but serious campaigning has yet to begin in this race, so later polls will certainly close the gap. Collins will soon need to defend her staunch support for President Bush throughout her term, including voting in favor of the Bush tax cuts, the Bush energy policy, and the war in Iraq — which will be a difficult defense in a Democratic-leaning state like Maine .

Minnesota : What was expected to be a long, drawn-out Democratic primary battle between Al Franken and Mike Ciresi ended unexpectedly when Ciresi dropped out. Franken, now secure in his nomination, has begun campaigning for the general election. Democrats enjoy a natural advantage over the GOP in statewide elections in Minnesota , and recent polls have the candidates in a statistical tie, which is bad news for any incumbent this early in the cycle. Senator Norm Coleman has shown early in the campaign that he is willing to go to great lengths to preserve his seat, even politicizing the 35W bridge disaster. Al Franken outpaced Coleman in fundraising in the first quarter of the year, but Coleman still enjoys the overall advantage, due to his vast war chest. Democrat Amy Klobuchar captured a Senate seat in Minnesota in 2006, and the polls were close throughout the campaign, so it is likely that this race will remain close to the end as well.

New Hampshire : Democratic candidate Governor Jeanne Shaheen has successfully rebounded from a brief drop in polls after controversy erupted over some comments made by her husband. The most recent polls have her ahead by double digits over Senator John Sununu in their rematch for the Senate seat that Sununu won in 2002. Shaheen's campaign recently announced that it had raised nearly $1.2 million in the first quarter of the year and has nearly $2 million in cash on hand.

New Mexico : Longtime Senator Pete Domenici is one of the surprise retirements of 2008, which has created a golden opportunity for a Democratic pickup. Congressman Tom Udall has solidified his hold on the Democratic nomination after all opposition withdrew from the race, while the Republicans are locked in a contentious primary contest between Congressman Steve Pearce and Congresswoman Heather Wilson. The primary has gotten ugly between the two Republican candidates, as Congressman Pearce recently attacked Wilson for missing votes in Washington in order to campaign in New Mexico . A long and damaging primary on the Republican side is good fortune for Democrat Tom Udall, because it can expose weaknesses in the other candidates and use up their funds. According to the most recent FEC reports, Udall enjoys a significant financial advantage, as the strain from the primary is already being felt in the Republican race. Both Republican candidates have spent more than three times the money that Udall has, and polls suggest that Udall has a commanding lead in general election matchups.

Oregon : This race will become clearer on May 20, when mail voting closes in the primary. It is unclear at this point which Democratic candidate, Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick, will emerge victorious in the primary, but Oregon 's party establishment has mostly thrown its support behind Merkley. One interesting aspect of this race is what effect the independent candidacy of John Frohnmayer will have. Frohnmayer, a former chairman of the federal National Endowment for the Arts comes from a Republican background — he was appointed to head the NEA by President George H.W. Bush — but it is not yet clear if he will take more votes from Smith or cut into the anti-Smith vote that would normally go to the Democratic nominee. While Smith waits to see who the eventual Democratic challenger will be, he continues to attempt to create a moderate persona around himself by breaking with Republicans on a few votes. For example, Smith voted against providing $70 billion in unrestricted funds for Iraq and Afghanistan , opposing the will of a president he has historically supported. There have been few polls on this race thus far, but we'll get a better sense of it after the primary.

Virginia : Like Colorado , the state of Virginia has been trending Democratic over the past few election cycles, and if current polls hold, former Governor Mark Warner will cruise to victory. Republican candidate Jim Gilmore has yet to significantly close the gap between him and Warner, and there are those who doubt that he ever will. Along with a large lead in the polls, Warner enjoys significant financial advantage; according to the latest FEC reports, Warner has more than $2.8 million on hand, whereas Gilmore has less than $200K.

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