Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
May 17 Election Insider
Democrats Must Not Turn Their Backs on the Senate
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire. Losing control of the Senate, which we hold by the thinnest of margins, would hinder our ability to pass legislation even if we controlled the White House. Many of the races in the Senate are beginning to take shape, and signs point to a very tough defense for Democrats. NCEC is firmly committed to holding control of Congress, but we'll need motivated Democrats to achieve our goals.
Republicans Have More Seats to Defend in the Senate This Cycle
One advantage Democrats have is that fewer Democrats than our Republican counterparts are up for reelection. Democrats have 12 seats to defend as opposed to 21 seats for the GOP. Republican seats are most vulnerable in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, which are all expected to be battlegrounds and offer opportunities for Democrats to expand our majority. Further, the possible retirement of Senator John Warner (R-VA) could open up another competitive race. Democrats proved they could be in successful in Virginia by defeating incumbent George Allen in 2006. An effective campaign strategy at the Senate level would be beneficial to the presidential race. Positive feelings about Democrats at all levels could help lead to the victory that we all seek in the race for the White House. However, if we fail to be aware of the consequences, we could very well lose control of the Senate. NCEC is working around the clock to make sure that this is prevented.
Outlook |
Democrats |
Republicans |
Battleground |
Mary Landrieu (LA), |
Wayne Allard/Open (CO),
|
Leans |
Mark Pryor (AR), Tom Harkin (IA) |
James Inhofe (OK), |
Safe |
Joe Biden (DE), |
Jeff Sessions (AL), |
| * Pending Possible Retirement |
The GOP Is Busy Recruiting Strong Candidates, Democrats Face a Tough Road Ahead
Regardless of how many vulnerable seats the GOP might have, they are moving forward by recruiting strong candidates to challenge our incumbents. Louisiana, Montana, and South Dakota are three states that are in danger of going Republican. These states are predominantly Republican in presidential politics, so the presidential race will bring an elevated Republican turnout, which could hurt the Democratic candidates.
The Democratic incumbent in the greatest danger of losing in 2008 is Mary Landrieu (D-LA), who has several factors working against her. She holds a seat in the Deep South, has already experienced close races in the past, and has seen her voting base fractured by Hurricane Katrina. We'll need a well-coordinated campaign to maintain control of this seat.
Senator Tim Johnson's future could control the fate of the seat in South Dakota. His health remains a big question mark in this race; the power of incumbency would be beneficial, but he may well retire due to his health concerns following his stroke in December of 2006. Even before Johnson's stroke, he faced a close race in 2000, so the seat would have been a target for the GOP even without his health problems. No candidate has announced intentions to run for the Republicans, but Governor Mike Rounds and several others are rumored to be preparing for a run.
Republicans are courting Congressman Denny Rehberg (MT-AL) to run against Democratic incumbent Max Baucus in Montana. It is unclear if Rehberg will decide to run, but if he were to do so, he would be a formidable candidate. Montana represents another state that is sure to vote Republican in the presidential race, so we can expect that Republican turnout will be up. Democrats did capture a Senate seat in Montana in 2006, but that gain can be attributed to the decidedly pro-Democrat political environment and former Senator Conrad Burns' ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Difficult Pickup Opportunities Will Test Democrats
There are as many as five potential pickups for Democrats in the Senate, in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but each of these will test Democratic strategy and performance.
The best opportunity for the Democrats is Colorado, which is an open seat, and the Democrats have been united behind Congressman Mark Udall (CO-02) for some time to be their candidate. Republicans have recruited well-known former Congressman Bob Schafer to run, and this is sure to be a very close race. However, due to some of Schafer's far-right leanings, Udall is positioned to be the favorite.
Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have Democratic leanings, but the Republican senators from these states have built popularity with moderate records. A recent poll in Minnesota showed Senator Coleman with double-digit leads over both prospective Democratic candidates, but a poll this early isn't likely to reflect an accurate picture of the race; the same poll gave Coleman a mere 48% approval rating, and anything under 50% is considered vulnerable.
In Maine, Congressman Tom Allen (ME-01) has entered the race against Republican Senator Susan Collins. Senator Collins continues to try and soften her stance on the Iraq war by voting with several other Republicans in support of a withdrawal timetable from Iraq. Given recent pickups in New England for Democrats, this race will be one to watch as the competition heats up.
In many ways, maintaining control of Congress is as important as winning the presidency; control of both would ensure our ability to pass our agenda. The fate of the Senate is up in the air, and while most focus on the presidential campaign, many lose sight of the Senate and forget that we have a lot to lose. NCEC is one of very few organizations that are focused solely on keeping control of Congress. Our in-depth campaign technology will be instrumental to the organization of our campaigns. We can't afford to turn a “blind eye”.
