Election Insider
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
Election Insider
May 29 Election Insider
Recent Radio Ads Show a Glimpse of Republican Strategy for 2008
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress. Now in the minority, Republicans are trying to establish their own message for the 2008 election. A recent batch of radio buys by the NRCC showcases their plan to take back Congress. Their strategy has two elements: blame Nancy Pelosi and attack our freshman members of Congress.
The GOP will once again try to paint House Speaker Pelosi as “too liberal” and “out of touch” despite her many attempts to seek compromise since the Democrats took control of Congress in January. It will use these ads to attack our freshman members for being too close to Pelosi and for violating campaign promises. The GOP has shown its hand early, as it will place these ads in 12 districts it plans to target. The table below shows the districts in question.
Democrats Targeted by Early GOP Ads |
Congressional District |
2006 Result |
Nancy Boyda |
KN-02 |
50.6%–47.1% |
Chris Carney |
PA-10 |
53%–47% |
Joe Donnelly |
IN-02 |
53.9%–46.1% |
Brad Ellsworth |
IN-08 |
61%–39% |
Gabrielle Giffords |
AZ-08 |
54.1%–42.2% |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
NY-20 |
53.1%–46.9% |
Steve Kagen |
WI-08 |
51.2%–48.8% |
Tim Mahoney |
FL-16 |
49.6%–47.6% |
Jerry McNerney |
CA-11 |
53.1%–46.9% |
Carol Shea-Porter |
NH-01 |
51.5%–48.5% |
Health Shuler |
NC-11 |
53.8%–46.2% |
Tim Walz |
MN-01 |
52.8%–47.2% |
This strategy is not unexpected, as first-time incumbents are often the most vulnerable to defeat. All of these candidates won in Republican-leaning districts, so it is only natural that Republicans would start here in their effort to reclaim the House. We will hear this message repeated to no end, but with NCEC's help our candidates will be ready to counteract their message with superior campaigning.
Republicans Recruiting Candidates With Deep Pockets to Offset Fundraising Gap
On April 18, NCEC reported that Democrats were staying competitive with Republicans in fundraising, and that the DCCC and DSCC had opened up large advantages over the Republican committees. Apparently, Republicans got the message because they are busy recruiting candidates with vast personal wealth to spend on campaigns, which can dilute the importance of our fundraising lead. They have recruited several multimillionaire candidates to run in House districts that are expected to be very competitive, hoping that the excess money can return them to power. Faced with candidates who have unending personal wealth, our candidates will depend even more on NCEC's expert knowledge to maximize the effect of every dollar spent.
The 2006 campaign left the NRCC in debt; in response its strategy has morphed into finding rich candidates rather than qualified candidates. For instance, Republicans have recruited Tom Rooney, an attorney from Florida and an heir to ownership of the Pittsburgh Steelers, to run against freshman Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL16), who managed to win the seat with help from former Congressman Mark Foley. Additionally, the NRCC has recruited Steve Greenberg, an Illinois businessman with great personal wealth, to challenge Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D-IL08). This moderate district in Illinois has been the setting for several close races, including 2006, when Bean carried the seat with 51.3% of the vote. Other multimillion-dollar candidates have been recruited across the country to challenge Democratic incumbents, with little or no concern for their political experience. Neither of the aforementioned recruits had political experience of any kind prior to being sought to run. Clearly, the NRCC believes that a financial advantage will be paramount in returning Republicans to power, but a candidate without a message is no candidate at all.
NCEC provides services that will counteract our opponents' deep pockets; the consulting and precinct-by-precinct data we provide comes to our candidates without charge. Services of this kind from another source would cost thousands of dollars. We are continuing to work faster than ever before to provide our vulnerable candidates with this data, and we have no time to lose.
