Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
June 13 Election Insider
Success at the Presidential Level Doesn’t Guarantee Control of Congress
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections. However, this trend seems to have subsided, as the last three newly elected presidents have seen their respective parties lose seats in congressional elections. This underscores the importance of maintaining our focus on all races, not just the presidency, in 2008. Our majorities in both the House and the Senate are slim, and the presidential race will make the turnout battle all the more important.
The wave of enthusiasm that sweeps in with newly elected presidents is a thing of the past. As the graph below demonstrates, not since Ronald Reagan has the party of a newly elected president seen an increase in seats. Democrats lost five seats when Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, which represents the largest decrease in seats since John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960. This holds great importance for the upcoming election, as Democrats must be motivated to turn out no matter what the situation looks like with regard to the presidential race.
Democratic majorities are at greater risk because 2008 is a presidential election. Democrats will seek to defend 61 House districts currently held by Democrats that President Bush carried in 2004. Freshman members of Congress are at the most vulnerable to defeat, and 19 of the 61 aforementioned districts are represented by freshman members that were elected in 2006. Due to the presidential election, Republican turnout will once again increase in all these districts possibly putting these seats in play. Even if one of the Democratic candidates for president were to prevail in 2008, that would not ensure the survival of our majorities.
Democratic Districts Won By Bush In 2004 |
|
District-Member |
2004 Kerry Percentage |
AL05-Cramer |
39.7 |
AZ05-Mitchell* |
45.6 |
AZ08-Giffords* |
46.8 |
AR01-Berry |
47.7 |
AR02-Snyder |
48.0 |
AR04-Ross |
48.0 |
CA11-McNerney* |
45.6 |
CA18-Cardoza |
49.9 |
CA47-Sanchez |
49.3 |
CO03-Salazar |
44.2 |
FL02-Boyd |
45.5 |
FL16-Mahoney* |
46.7 |
GA02-Bishop |
46.2 |
GA08-Marshall |
26.5 |
IL08-Bean |
44.3 |
IN02-Donnelly* |
43.6 |
IN08-Ellsworth* |
38.0 |
IN09-Hill |
40.6 |
IA03-Boswell |
50.0 |
KS02-Boyda* |
39.2 |
KS03-Moore |
45.3 |
KY06-Chandler |
41.4 |
LA03-Melancon |
41.4 |
MI01-Stupak |
46.1 |
MN01-Walz* |
48.2 |
MN07-Peterson |
43.7 |
MS04-Taylor |
31.3 |
MO04-Skelton |
35.4 |
NH01-Shea-Porter* |
48.5 |
NY01-Bishop |
49.7 |
NY19-Hall* |
45.8 |
NY20-Gillibrand* |
46.0 |
NY24-Arcuri* |
47.0 |
NC02-Etheridge |
44.5 |
NC07-McIntyre |
44.3 |
NC11-Shuler* |
42.7 |
ND00-Pomeroy |
36.1 |
OH06-Wilson |
49.7 |
OH18-Space* |
42.7 |
OK02-Boren |
40.6 |
OR05-Hooley |
49.4 |
PA04-Altmire* |
45.3 |
PA10-Carney* |
39.8 |
PA17-Holden |
41.9 |
SC05-Spratt |
42.2 |
SD00-Herseth |
39.1 |
TN04-Davis |
41.5 |
TN06-Gordon |
39.9 |
TN08-Tanner |
46.0 |
TX15-Hinojosa |
45.1 |
TX17-Edwards |
30.1 |
TX22-Lampson* |
35.6 |
TX23-Rodriguez* |
35.5 |
TX27-Ortiz |
45.0 |
TX28-Cuellar |
47.5 |
UT02-Matheson |
32.3 |
VA09-Boucher |
39.8 |
WA03-Baird |
49.1 |
WV01-Mollohan |
41.8 |
WV03-Rahall |
46.4 |
WI08-Kagen* |
44.6 |
The 2006 election was a success for Democrats, but it did see an elevated number of close House races. In all, there were 62 House races that were won with less than 55% of the major party vote, which is the largest number since 1996. In part this was due to Democratic candidates performing at elevated levels in an immensely pro-Democrat political environment. However, it also includes many seats where Democrats achieved close victories in highly contested races that are sure to be close again in 2008. Our 15-seat majority in the House is in no way untouchable.
Special Election in Wyoming May Present an Unexpected Opportunity
With the unfortunate passing this week of Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY), a special election will be held in 2008 to fill the vacant Senate seat. While Wyoming is historically a strong Republican state, Democrats have begun to make headway there. Popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was reelected by a landslide in 2006, and Gary Trauner lost the statewide House race by less than a percentage point. If Trauner were to run for the Senate, this could become a very interesting race.
NCEC is firmly committed to maintaining our majorities in both houses of Congress, and we are working faster than ever before to get our precinct-by-precinct targeting out to Democrats all across the country. The information we provide lets the campaigns know where Democrats are and helps them organize efforts to get them out to vote. In a presidential-election year, turnout determines victory, which only increases the importance of the work done by NCEC.
