Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
June 13 Election Insider
Success at the Presidential Level Doesn’t Guarantee Control of Congress
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections. However, this trend seems to have subsided, as the last three newly elected presidents have seen their respective parties lose seats in congressional elections. This underscores the importance of maintaining our focus on all races, not just the presidency, in 2008. Our majorities in both the House and the Senate are slim, and the presidential race will make the turnout battle all the more important.
The wave of enthusiasm that sweeps in with newly elected presidents is a thing of the past. As the graph below demonstrates, not since Ronald Reagan has the party of a newly elected president seen an increase in seats. Democrats lost five seats when Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, which represents the largest decrease in seats since John F. Kennedy was elected in 1960. This holds great importance for the upcoming election, as Democrats must be motivated to turn out no matter what the situation looks like with regard to the presidential race.
Democratic majorities are at greater risk because 2008 is a presidential election. Democrats will seek to defend 61 House districts currently held by Democrats that President Bush carried in 2004. Freshman members of Congress are at the most vulnerable to defeat, and 19 of the 61 aforementioned districts are represented by freshman members that were elected in 2006. Due to the presidential election, Republican turnout will once again increase in all these districts possibly putting these seats in play. Even if one of the Democratic candidates for president were to prevail in 2008, that would not ensure the survival of our majorities.
Democratic Districts Won By Bush In 2004 |
|
District-Member |
2004 Kerry Percentage |
AL05-Cramer |
39.7 |
AZ05-Mitchell* |
45.6 |
AZ08-Giffords* |
46.8 |
AR01-Berry |
47.7 |
AR02-Snyder |
48.0 |
AR04-Ross |
48.0 |
CA11-McNerney* |
45.6 |
CA18-Cardoza |
49.9 |
CA47-Sanchez |
49.3 |
CO03-Salazar |
44.2 |
FL02-Boyd |
45.5 |
FL16-Mahoney* |
46.7 |
GA02-Bishop |
46.2 |
GA08-Marshall |
26.5 |
IL08-Bean |
44.3 |
IN02-Donnelly* |
43.6 |
IN08-Ellsworth* |
38.0 |
IN09-Hill |
40.6 |
IA03-Boswell |
50.0 |
KS02-Boyda* |
39.2 |
KS03-Moore |
45.3 |
KY06-Chandler |
41.4 |
LA03-Melancon |
41.4 |
MI01-Stupak |
46.1 |
MN01-Walz* |
48.2 |
MN07-Peterson |
43.7 |
MS04-Taylor |
31.3 |
MO04-Skelton |
35.4 |
NH01-Shea-Porter* |
48.5 |
NY01-Bishop |
49.7 |
NY19-Hall* |
45.8 |
NY20-Gillibrand* |
46.0 |
NY24-Arcuri* |
47.0 |
NC02-Etheridge |
44.5 |
NC07-McIntyre |
44.3 |
NC11-Shuler* |
42.7 |
ND00-Pomeroy |
36.1 |
OH06-Wilson |
49.7 |
OH18-Space* |
42.7 |
OK02-Boren |
40.6 |
OR05-Hooley |
49.4 |
PA04-Altmire* |
45.3 |
PA10-Carney* |
39.8 |
PA17-Holden |
41.9 |
SC05-Spratt |
42.2 |
SD00-Herseth |
39.1 |
TN04-Davis |
41.5 |
TN06-Gordon |
39.9 |
TN08-Tanner |
46.0 |
TX15-Hinojosa |
45.1 |
TX17-Edwards |
30.1 |
TX22-Lampson* |
35.6 |
TX23-Rodriguez* |
35.5 |
TX27-Ortiz |
45.0 |
TX28-Cuellar |
47.5 |
UT02-Matheson |
32.3 |
VA09-Boucher |
39.8 |
WA03-Baird |
49.1 |
WV01-Mollohan |
41.8 |
WV03-Rahall |
46.4 |
WI08-Kagen* |
44.6 |
The 2006 election was a success for Democrats, but it did see an elevated number of close House races. In all, there were 62 House races that were won with less than 55% of the major party vote, which is the largest number since 1996. In part this was due to Democratic candidates performing at elevated levels in an immensely pro-Democrat political environment. However, it also includes many seats where Democrats achieved close victories in highly contested races that are sure to be close again in 2008. Our 15-seat majority in the House is in no way untouchable.
Special Election in Wyoming May Present an Unexpected Opportunity
With the unfortunate passing this week of Senator Craig Thomas (R-WY), a special election will be held in 2008 to fill the vacant Senate seat. While Wyoming is historically a strong Republican state, Democrats have begun to make headway there. Popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal was reelected by a landslide in 2006, and Gary Trauner lost the statewide House race by less than a percentage point. If Trauner were to run for the Senate, this could become a very interesting race.
NCEC is firmly committed to maintaining our majorities in both houses of Congress, and we are working faster than ever before to get our precinct-by-precinct targeting out to Democrats all across the country. The information we provide lets the campaigns know where Democrats are and helps them organize efforts to get them out to vote. In a presidential-election year, turnout determines victory, which only increases the importance of the work done by NCEC.
