Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
June 28 Election Insider
Polls Suggest a Historically Close Primary to Come in 2008
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race. The 2008 primary season figures to include the most interesting and hotly contested presidential primary in more than a half century. With no incumbent or sitting vice president in the running on either side, the field is wide open. The political landscape of the presidential primary has been seriously altered, possibly debunking all previous beliefs about what will determine the nominees. The presence of a possibly well-financed independent candidate further clouds the picture, and as poll after poll in the key battleground states shows, nothing is set in stone.
Clinton Leads in Nationwide Polls, But New Primary Lineup Might Change the Outcome
Past primary seasons have demonstrated that the nomination can be as good as decided by the early primaries in Iowa , New Hampshire , and South Carolina . In 2004, John Kerry catapulted to the head of the Democratic field after an unexpected victory in Iowa , and never looked back. Conversely, the Iowa result spelled doom for Howard Dean, the early front-runner, who was never able to recover after coming in third. However, this early primary notion may not hold true in 2008. On February 5, as many as 29 states, including California , New York , and Florida , will hold their primaries in what is shaping up to be a “super-duper Tuesday.” Other states, including Nevada , have leaped to the front of the line, which might benefit a western candidate or further muddle the picture. The Democratic field is full of well-known candidates, all fighting for support and money. While Hillary Clinton remains the so-called front-runner according to the nationwide polls, a look at the state-by-state polls shows that nothing has been decided. Nationwide polls consistently give Hillary Clinton the lead among the Democratic contenders. For example, the June 20–21 Newsweek poll gave Senator Clinton a sizable 16-point lead over her closest competitor, Senator Barack Obama.
Iowa : Can Edwards Really Capture Iowa ?
Senator John Edwards has polled extremely well in the crucial early-voting state of Iowa . His continued presence in the state since his presidential campaign in 2004 could produce a victory in this state. In past years this would have given him a serious leg up for the nomination, but his candidacy may be hurt more than anyone's by the changing of the primary schedule, which might dilute the importance of the Iowa primary. The June 13–16 Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator Clinton a mere one-point lead over Edwards and only a three-point lead over Obama. Iowa will still be an early bellwether state, but the capital gained from winning this competition may be far less than in previous years.
Nevada : Early Primary May Hold the Key for Richardson
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson must perform well in Nevada , which moved its primary up and has become one of the most important early forecasters for 2008. The proximity to New Mexico and its western background give Richardson a great opportunity to make a statement in this race. This may be the most important state for Richardson if he is to have a realistic shot at winning the nomination. The most recent polls show Nevada falling in line with the norm, but as the primary approaches, these numbers may change. According to the June 15–19 American Research Group poll, Hillary Clinton holds a comfortable lead in Nevada with 40%, followed by both John Edwards and Barack Obama polling at 16%. Bill Richardson thus far has 6%, according to this poll.
South Carolina : Does Obama Need to Win Here?
In another example of the wide-open nature of this race, the South Carolina primary figures to go in a different direction than the two previously mentioned contests. According to the June 13–15 Mason-Dixon poll, Barack Obama holds the lead in this early primary with 34% of the vote, followed by Hillary Clinton with 25%, and John Edwards with 12%. Winning South Carolina is of great importance to Obama's campaign; it would give him a victory in the early contests and maintain a reason for optimism.
Bloomberg Factor?
One of the most compelling stories that have come out recently is the possibility of an independent run by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. While he still maintains that he is not going to run, his candidacy would have serious implications for the outcome of the general election. Unlike most independent candidates, Bloomberg, with his immense personal wealth, would not be constrained by a lack of funding. The question then becomes, which party would his candidacy hurt more? While this is not yet clear, unlike most other ideologically driven third-party candidates Bloomberg would run from the center and siphon votes from both Republicans and Democrats as well as capture a large portion of the crucial Independent population. Generally speaking, Democrats have success when Independents vote for us as they did in 2006. If Bloomberg were to attract a large number of Independents, the effects could be disastrous. However, he would also draw votes away from Republicans by attracting fiscal conservatives who have been alienated by the religious right wing of the Republican Party. It's not yet known what the overall effect of a Bloomberg candidacy will be, but it is another factor that makes this primary season one of the most interesting in years.
Our focus at NCEC is to preserve and advance the Democratic congressional majorities, but there is no question that the developing presidential race will have a great effect on the outcome of the congressional elections in 2008. The accelerated primary schedule will leave congressional candidates scrambling for cash earlier than ever. With most of the attention and the money flowing to the presidential race, the importance of our work is expanded. Our precinct targeting will be an essential part of our candidates' strategies for both the primary and the general elections. Democrats hold both houses of Congress by the thinnest of margins, and NCEC is firmly committed to maintaining our majorities. Our work is made possible by your contributions; please contribute.
