Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
June 28 Election Insider
Polls Suggest a Historically Close Primary to Come in 2008
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race. The 2008 primary season figures to include the most interesting and hotly contested presidential primary in more than a half century. With no incumbent or sitting vice president in the running on either side, the field is wide open. The political landscape of the presidential primary has been seriously altered, possibly debunking all previous beliefs about what will determine the nominees. The presence of a possibly well-financed independent candidate further clouds the picture, and as poll after poll in the key battleground states shows, nothing is set in stone.
Clinton Leads in Nationwide Polls, But New Primary Lineup Might Change the Outcome
Past primary seasons have demonstrated that the nomination can be as good as decided by the early primaries in Iowa , New Hampshire , and South Carolina . In 2004, John Kerry catapulted to the head of the Democratic field after an unexpected victory in Iowa , and never looked back. Conversely, the Iowa result spelled doom for Howard Dean, the early front-runner, who was never able to recover after coming in third. However, this early primary notion may not hold true in 2008. On February 5, as many as 29 states, including California , New York , and Florida , will hold their primaries in what is shaping up to be a “super-duper Tuesday.” Other states, including Nevada , have leaped to the front of the line, which might benefit a western candidate or further muddle the picture. The Democratic field is full of well-known candidates, all fighting for support and money. While Hillary Clinton remains the so-called front-runner according to the nationwide polls, a look at the state-by-state polls shows that nothing has been decided. Nationwide polls consistently give Hillary Clinton the lead among the Democratic contenders. For example, the June 20–21 Newsweek poll gave Senator Clinton a sizable 16-point lead over her closest competitor, Senator Barack Obama.
Iowa : Can Edwards Really Capture Iowa ?
Senator John Edwards has polled extremely well in the crucial early-voting state of Iowa . His continued presence in the state since his presidential campaign in 2004 could produce a victory in this state. In past years this would have given him a serious leg up for the nomination, but his candidacy may be hurt more than anyone's by the changing of the primary schedule, which might dilute the importance of the Iowa primary. The June 13–16 Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator Clinton a mere one-point lead over Edwards and only a three-point lead over Obama. Iowa will still be an early bellwether state, but the capital gained from winning this competition may be far less than in previous years.
Nevada : Early Primary May Hold the Key for Richardson
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson must perform well in Nevada , which moved its primary up and has become one of the most important early forecasters for 2008. The proximity to New Mexico and its western background give Richardson a great opportunity to make a statement in this race. This may be the most important state for Richardson if he is to have a realistic shot at winning the nomination. The most recent polls show Nevada falling in line with the norm, but as the primary approaches, these numbers may change. According to the June 15–19 American Research Group poll, Hillary Clinton holds a comfortable lead in Nevada with 40%, followed by both John Edwards and Barack Obama polling at 16%. Bill Richardson thus far has 6%, according to this poll.
South Carolina : Does Obama Need to Win Here?
In another example of the wide-open nature of this race, the South Carolina primary figures to go in a different direction than the two previously mentioned contests. According to the June 13–15 Mason-Dixon poll, Barack Obama holds the lead in this early primary with 34% of the vote, followed by Hillary Clinton with 25%, and John Edwards with 12%. Winning South Carolina is of great importance to Obama's campaign; it would give him a victory in the early contests and maintain a reason for optimism.
Bloomberg Factor?
One of the most compelling stories that have come out recently is the possibility of an independent run by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. While he still maintains that he is not going to run, his candidacy would have serious implications for the outcome of the general election. Unlike most independent candidates, Bloomberg, with his immense personal wealth, would not be constrained by a lack of funding. The question then becomes, which party would his candidacy hurt more? While this is not yet clear, unlike most other ideologically driven third-party candidates Bloomberg would run from the center and siphon votes from both Republicans and Democrats as well as capture a large portion of the crucial Independent population. Generally speaking, Democrats have success when Independents vote for us as they did in 2006. If Bloomberg were to attract a large number of Independents, the effects could be disastrous. However, he would also draw votes away from Republicans by attracting fiscal conservatives who have been alienated by the religious right wing of the Republican Party. It's not yet known what the overall effect of a Bloomberg candidacy will be, but it is another factor that makes this primary season one of the most interesting in years.
Our focus at NCEC is to preserve and advance the Democratic congressional majorities, but there is no question that the developing presidential race will have a great effect on the outcome of the congressional elections in 2008. The accelerated primary schedule will leave congressional candidates scrambling for cash earlier than ever. With most of the attention and the money flowing to the presidential race, the importance of our work is expanded. Our precinct targeting will be an essential part of our candidates' strategies for both the primary and the general elections. Democrats hold both houses of Congress by the thinnest of margins, and NCEC is firmly committed to maintaining our majorities. Our work is made possible by your contributions; please contribute.
