Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
July 11 Election Insider
GOP Reduced To A Regional Party
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain. It is true that on both the macro and micro levels, Republicans face a daunting, if not impossible, task to hold their own this year or to be competitive in the 2010 election. However, the major factor limiting the potential for widespread Democratic gains this year is the number of seats already gained since the 2004 election. It will be difficult to add a large number of seats, since the party has amassed 236 members, a gain of 33 seats over one general election and subsequent special elections. Democrats now control 54.3% of the House seats, compared with 45.7% for Republicans. Even if the double-digit generic ballot lead holds through November, it is likely that the ceiling on gains is about 20 seats.
Several fundamental changes have adversely transformed the electoral process for Republicans. Here are some of the macro factors that portend Democratic control, at least until the next reapportionment.
STRENGTH OF DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS
Since the 1994 election, if GOP redistricting–imposed incumbent-versus-incumbent races are removed from the equation only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection bids. Conversely, 54 Republican incumbents have lost reelection bids (52 net of redistricting). Twenty-one Republican incumbents lost in 2006, and at least 20 more are in jeopardy in 2008. Remarkably, 99% of Democratic incumbents, notwithstanding partisan gerrymandering, have been reelected since 1994 when 34 Democrats lost their seats.
Several freshmen Democrats face reelection battles in Republican-leaning districts, but the early prediction of battleground erosion has given way to an assessment that, at most, only five to eight Democratic freshmen face serious reelection battles.
Conversely, far more Republican incumbents appear to be in serious trouble as the general election approaches.
OPEN SEATS
Republican success in retaining the House from 1996 to 2004 was based on victories in open-seat contests (defined as races without an incumbent candidate). After a net gain of 18 open seats in 1994, when the Republicans regained control of the House for the first time since 1952, Republican success continued as they scored a net gain of eight more open seats in five subsequent election cycles.
However, this trend came to an end in 2006, when Democrats regained the edge in open seats, with eight notable victories. Several of those wins were achieved in so-called red states of Florida , Arizona , Colorado and Texas. The improbable success in red states continued in 2008, with victories in Mississippi and Louisiana and the Republican-leaning suburban district in Illinois formerly held by ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert.
Meanwhile, a historically unprecedented series of retirements have jeopardized 10 or more Republican open seats in the 2008 cycle. That list includes prototypical suburban districts where Democrats have seen substantial gains in recent years.
REGIONALISM
Republicans are now in jeopardy of evolving into a regional party with a solid foundation in the South and to a lesser extent in the rural Midwest and Rocky Mountain states . While becoming an endangered minority in the remainder of the country.
When the Republicans gained control of the House in 1994, they held a majority of seats in the Midwest, South and West and 33 of 66 House districts in the Mid-Atlantic states . Clearly, the Republicans were a national party. Moreover, Republicans gained 10 House seats in southern and border states two years later, in 1996. Still, Democrats retained 43% of all southern and border congressional districts after the '96 election.
The outcome of elections since 1996 has exposed a far larger problem for Republicans, than Democrats faced in the South. More than 46% of Republican House seats emanate from southern and border states, possessing only 28% of House seats nationally.
Republicans now control only 25.9% of congressional districts in the East, which translates into a 41-seat deficit. At their nadir, Democrats still held more than 40% of all seats in southern and border states .
A combination of regionalism, incumbent resilience and a highly favorable concentration of open seats is likely to result in further losses for the GOP in 2008. In the rapidly growing western region, Republicans hold only 41.8% of all House districts, an astounding reversal from 1994, when they held 57% of western House districts.
If the Republicans are isolated as a regional party, dominant in the South, competitive in the Midwest but hopelessly outnumbered on both coasts, their chances of regaining a majority of the House in the near future are remote.
