Election Insider
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
December 17 Election Insider
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts.
November 28 Election Insider
Since 2004, Colorado has transformed from a solid Republican state to one of intense competition where Democrats have suddenly reached parity.
October 26 Election Insider
Americans want change. Despite low congressional approval ratings, polls show that Democrats have an advantage in the upcoming congressional and presidential elections. President Bush continues to cast a shadow over his party.
October 11 Election Insider
Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small portion of the South. The last two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians, making the state contentious in all races including the presidency.
September 21 Election Insider
Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring.
August 29 Election Insider
Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington . In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric.
August 9 Election Insider
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose.
July 27 Election Insider
Republicans have a simple strategy for winning back Congress in 2008: they plan to label the current Democratic majority as a "do-nothing" Congress.
July 11 Election Insider
The evolution of the Independent is one of the most important factors affecting American politics today. Americans are identifying themselves as Independent with greater frequency, making these swing voters essential to the success of almost any campaign.
June 28 Election Insider
Not a single vote has been cast in a presidential primary, but already it feels as though the country is neck deep in the presidential race.
June 13 Election Insider
In the past the party of a newly elected president enjoyed wholesale success, sweeping into power by winning in both the presidential race and the congressional elections.
May 29 Election Insider
One of the most important aspects of any campaign is formatting a message that can be repeated and that will stick with the voters. In 2006, Democrats employed the term “culture of corruption” to describe the Republican-held Congress.
May 17 Election Insider
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire.
April 25 Election Insider
The litany of corruption that permeated the GOP-led Congress helped push voters away from Republicans in 2006.
April 18 Election Insider
The enthusiasm that propelled Democrats to take control of Congress remains, as Democratic fundraising remained competitive in congressional races for the first quarter of the year.
Election Insider
August 9 Election Insider
Republican Retirements Could Lead to Democratic Gains.
Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose. However, open seats with no incumbent change parties much more frequently. The presence of scandal or outright retirement can create a rash of open seats and competitive races, which can determine which party controls Congress. As the 2008 congressional campaign takes shape, there are several Republican incumbents who potentially could retire, which would provide more opportunities for Democrats to expand their majorities in both the House and the Senate.
An open seat neutralizes the incumbency advantages of name recognition and fund-raising, which puts both candidates on a level playing field. In watershed elections such as those of 1974, 1994, and 2006, the presence of open seats has helped fuel the large seat change that either expanded one party's control over the House or helped throw that party out of power. In 1974, Democrats flipped 13 Republican open seats to Democratic control as part of the angry response to the Watergate scandal. In 1994, Republicans gobbled up 22 Democratic open seats on their way to sweeping Democrats out of power in Congress. In 2006, Democrats picked up eight open Republican seats, which provided more than half of the total necessary to gain control of the House. Of course not all open seats will automatically produce competitive races. A solid Republican or Democratic district will likely elect someone of that party despite the lack of an incumbent. However, the situation changes dramatically when the open district is considered marginally competitive. These marginal districts are considered competitive in that they could be wide open or either party might have a slight advantage. The graph below shows the percentage of marginal open seats that changed parties from 1994 to 2006.
As you can see, in comparison to normal competitive seats with an incumbent, these marginal open seats change hands far more frequently. which showcases the importance of potential retirements in potentially competitive districts.
Republican aspirations toward capturing the 16 seats necessary to retake control of the House would be significantly damaged by a large number of retirements. To date, there are several Republican members who may retire in the coming months, which could give Democrats an increased number of targets. Seven-term incumbent Ray LaHood (R-IL) has already announced that he will retire after this term, which could put his district in play for the first time in years. Other possible GOP retirees include former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Ralph Regula (R-OH), Bill Young (R-FL), Jo Ann Davis (R-VA), John McHugh (R-NY), Don Manzullo (R-IL), and Barbara Cubin (R-WY).
Another possible GOP retirement could have an effect on the power balance in the Senate. Longtime Senator John Warner from Virginia is said to be considering retirement, and if he were to retire, his seat would automatically be in play in 2008. The prospects for Democrats would improve greatly if popular former Governor Mark Warner were to enter the race, which could increase Democratic turnout and even have an effect on the presidential race in Virginia .
NCEC will be watching intently for GOP retirements in marginal districts, so we can pounce on any opportunity to a win a seat in Congress. The fireworks that defined 2006 are not likely to repeat in such a short time, which makes identifying competitive races all the more important. NCEC provides the most in-depth targeting available, to give Democrats in these marginal districts a real opportunity to win and expand our fragile majority.
