June 30 Election Insider

Republican Retirements Could Lead to 60+ Democratic Majority in the Senate

Al Franken's long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010. Anchored by arguments about one-party rule, the Republicans are going to throw everything they have at us to reduce our filibuster-proof majority. As our table indicates, the outlook for the 2010 Senate races is far less one-sided than it was in 2008. This year there are seats we can lose.

Incumbent Democratic Senators Face Tough Reelection Battles

In 2008, the Senate outlook favored Democrats to such a degree that it was a stretch to suggest that even one incumbent Democrat was in danger. This is a luxury we will not enjoy in 2010. In traditional swing states, such as Colorado , Illinois , and Nevada we will see close Senate races, which will determine whether we can maintain our filibuster-proof majority. Other Democratic incumbents, such as Chris Dodd, have seen their popularity plummet during these difficult times, and are more vulnerable than in the past.

Colorado - Senator Michael Bennet was appointed to this seat in January after Ken Salazar was named Secretary of the Interior in the Obama administration. Bennet's short history with Colorado voters dilutes the power of his incumbency, and assures a close race. Though Democrats have enjoyed wide-ranging success in Colorado since 2004, in statewide elections, Colorado will always be competitive. Democratic aspirations are tied to their margins of victory in the 5 most populous counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder , Denver , and Jefferson . If Democrats perform well there, they win. Along with Colorado 's inherent competitive nature, early polling shows Bennet's vulnerability. According to a Public Policy Polling survey in April, his job approval rating was at 34%. Perhaps more troubling, the poll suggests that Democrats as a whole could be in trouble in Colorado, as President Obama and Democratic Governor Bill Ritter both have job performance ratings below 50%. Despite these polling numbers, the Republicans lack a major candidate to oppose Bennet, because other high-profile Republicans, such as former Congressman Tom Tancreado, remain focused on the upcoming governor's race. So far, four relatively unknown Republican candidates have surfaced; Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City councilman Ryan Frazier are the only two candidates with any political experience.

Connecticut - In past cycles Senator Dodd would be considered a shoe-in for reelection, but the melt-down in the financial sector has spotlighted Dodd's position as Chairman of the Senate Banking and Urban Affairs Committee. His approval ratings have suffered badly. Dodd's vulnerability has drawn a strong Republican challenger, former Congressman Rob Simmons, into the race. Senator Dodd has received some favorable coverage recently following the passage of his Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility, and Disclosure Act, which increased consumer protections from credit card companies. Additionally, in the absence of Senator Ted Kennedy, Dodd has assumed a leading role on health care reform, but the latest polls show Dodd trailing former congressman Simmons by nine-points (47%-38%). There is hope that Dodd's numbers have stabilized, which will cause his polling to improve in the coming months.

Delaware - Senator Ted Kaufman, who was appointed after Joe Biden became Vice President, has already announced that he will not seek reelection in 2010. Democrats have a natural advantage in Delaware , but speculation suggests that popular Republican Congressman Michael Castle may run, which could make the race very competitive. The Democrats have recruited Lieutenant Governor John Carney, a strong candidate, for the statewide House seat, which may push Castle into the Senate race or into retirement. Several potential Democratic candidates for the Senate remain, including Attorney General Beau Biden.

Illinois - All signs suggest that Roland Burris will not be the Democratic candidate for the Senate in 2010. His fundraising numbers have been anemic, and there is a long list of potential competitors vying for his seat. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has already entered the race, and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson has formed an exploratory committee. Further, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan is being recruited by the DSCC. There is little support for Burris. On the Republican side, Congressman Mark Kirk is the preferred candidate, and early polling showed that he would easily beat Senator Burris, and run a competitive campaign against any of the other aforementioned candidates. However, Kirk has been noncommittal to the race, and has failed to adhere to several self imposed decision deadlines. Another option for Illinois Republicans is businessman and political novice Robert Zadek, who has already entered the race.

Nevada – Conventional wisdom suggests that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in for a tough reelection battle. Nevada is a very competitive state, in which neither party enjoys an advantage, and Senator Reid's approval ratings are below 40% according to the most recent polling. However, the Republicans have had a tough time recruiting any noteworthy candidates to challenge Reid. Meanwhile, Senator Reid has been busy fundraising, and to-date has more than $5 million in cash-on-hand. Republican hopes are fixed on Congressman Dean Heller who, if he entered, would give the Republicans a credible challenger. Heller gave himself a deadline of June 30 to announce his plans, but no word has yet been given. Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki considered running, but his candidacy was damaged when he was recently indicted on felony charges of misappropriating state funds. Another potential Republican candidate is former Nevada state representative Sharon Angle, a former four-term State Assemblywoman who lost a 2006 Congressional primary. The longer the Republicans struggle, the more likely the Democrats will hold this seat.

Republican Retirements Change the Balance and Create Big Opportunities in the Senate

Every year both parties watch for retirement announcements in Congress, because open-seat contests represent the best pickup opportunities in every election cycle. This year, several longtime Republican senators in competitive states have announced their retirements at the end of term. These retirements have created at least four prime pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2010.

Florida - President Obama's victory in Florida last cycle shows that Democrats can still win statewide elections in this state, which was feared to be trending Republican. Senator Mel Martinez's retirement creates an open seat contest. Republicans have successfully recruited Governor Charlie Crist to run for the seat, which hurts the Democrats' chances due to his popularity. However, it is not certain that Crist will win the primary, because former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has also entered the race. Rubio is a much more conservative Republican, which may help him in Florida 's closed Republican primary, as much of Crist's popularity comes from moderates and independents. Rubio has received endorsements from popular Republicans such as former Governor Jeb Bush, and other conservative leaders. Recent polls show Crist well ahead of Rubio, but a large portion of the samples remain undecided. A long damaging primary, where Crist must show his true conservative colors, could push some of that moderate support back to the Democrats. On the Democratic side, the most prominent candidate to enter the race is Congressman Kendrick Meek. Additionally, Congresswoman Corrine Brown has formed an exploratory committee, but has yet to formally enter the race . Polls show that if Crist wins the nomination, Democrats are in trouble.

Kentucky - Senator Jim Bunning is short on money and short on support from his own party, as the NRSC has made it clear that they will not support him for reelection. However, Bunning remains defiant and intends to run for reelection. Early on in the cycle it appeared that Bunning was set to retire and yield to Republican Secretary of State Tray Grayson, who already has announced his candidacy, but Bunning has changed his mind. Bunning enjoys feeble approval ratings below 40%, and Grayson is outperforming Bunning in terms of fundraising. It's clear that Republicans are eager to push Bunning out the door, but his retirement doesn't assure continued Republican control of the seat. Early polls show that even with Grayson as the Republican candidate, the race will be close. The Democrats have several strong potential candidates including Congressman Ben Chandler, State Attorney General Jack Conaway, and Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004. As our graph shows, the most recent poll has these Democrats polling ahead or very close to Grayson in a head-to-head matchup.

Missouri - Senator Kit Bond announced earlier this year that he too will retire at the end of the term. Unlike Florida , the candidate field in Missouri is much clearer. Congressman Roy Blunt appears to be the likely Republican candidate, but he will first need to win a primary against State Senator Chuck Purgasson. Democrat Robin Carnahan, daughter of former senator Jean Carnahan, is so far running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. In the first quarter of the year, she raised more than $1 million for her campaign, which more than doubled Blunt's numbers. However, Missouri will always be fiercely competitive at the statewide level, so this race is sure to be close. The early polls have been encouraging; the most recent poll shows Carnahan leading both potential Republican candidates.

North Carolina - President Obama's victory in this state last November proved that the demographics of North Carolina are rapidly changing, and that Democrats can win here. Senator Richard Burr has become an obvious target for Democrats. Senator Burr is busy doing damage control after it was revealed that he encouraged his wife to “rush to the ATM” when the worst of the bank crisis was occurring. More recently, he defended his statement suggesting that he'd say it again. Unfortunately, the Democrats' high profile candidate, Attorney General Roy Cooper, recently decided that he would not run. Early polls showed Cooper ahead or tied with Burr in a theoretical matchup. It's unclear who the Democrats will turn to, but possible candidates include: Congressman Mike McIntyre, former State Senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham , North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and former state Treasurer Richard Moore. Recent polling underscores Burr's vulnerability. According to a poll released in June, Burr's job performance rating was at just 33%.

New Hampshire - Judd Gregg, who earlier this year accepted, then refused, Obama's appointment to his cabinet has opted to retire at the end of this term. Democrats would have mounted a serious challenge for this seat even if Gregg had run for reelection, but his retirement makes the race even more promising. Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes is the likely Democratic candidate, despite some underwhelming fundraising numbers in the first quarter ($300K). No candidate has surfaced yet for the Republican nomination. Rumors were circulating around former Senator John Sununu who lost in 2008 to former Governor, Democrat Jean Shaheen. However, Sununu has decided not to enter the race, which is good news for Democrats. Sununu enjoys wide name recognition with the voters, and a poll, released in June, showed Hodes in a close race with Sununu in a head-to-head matchup 40%-36%.

Ohio - Fresh from President Obama's hard fought victory in Ohio , the Democrats are looking to take full control of the Ohio Senate delegation. Longtime Senator George Voinovich has joined several other Republicans in announcing his retirement but the Republicans have quickly countered with high-profile candidate Rob Portman, former U.S. Trade Representative and Budget Director. Portman raised more than $1.7 million for his campaign in the first quarter. Democrats can boast two strong candidates of their own, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fischer and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Both Democratic candidates raised more than $1 million in the first quarter for their respective campaigns. Along with strong fundraising numbers, the most recent polling shows both potential Democratic candidates leading Portman.