Election Insider
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
National Polls in 2008 Paint a Different Picture Than Polls Did in 2004
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign. In the 2008 polls, we are seeing a much different picture, as Democratic candidate Barack Obama has consistently held a lead over Republican John McCain since February, and that lead is growing. There is no telling what can happen between now and November, but on a national level the picture is very different this year.
Obama Has Held the National Lead since February
Ever since the presidential primary went into full swing, Barack Obama has held a lead nationally over Republican rival John McCain. His national lead never faltered, not even during the most divisive days of the Democratic primary, when the McCain campaign was actively recruiting support from Hillary Clinton supporters. As the graph shows, an average of several national polls shows that Obama has held a national lead over McCain since February. While political pundits continue to insist that his national lead should be larger, a comparison with the 2004 polls shows that Obama's sustained lead, no matter how small, is something that hasn't been seen in the last two presidential elections.
National Polls in 2004 Much Different Than Polls in 2008
As the presidential campaign progressed in 2004, the national polls showed voters swinging back and forth between John Kerry and George Bush. After winning the Iowa caucus, John Kerry started out with a strong lead over President Bush in January, but as the graph shows, this lead swung back and forth throughout the year between the candidates. The power of President Bush's incumbent status and a starkly different political environment were the key factors that produced a much more uncertain public opinion in 2004 as opposed to 2008.
Will There Be Another “Swift Boat” Attack?
Of course, as we know from 2004, our optimism must remain cautious, because a great deal can happen between the close of the summer and Election Day. Using the same average of national polls as used in the previous graph, we can see that John Kerry had turned a corner in July and captured the national lead. However, the GOP countered with the now-infamous “swift boat” ads released in early August 2004, which as the graph shows, cost Kerry dearly in the closing months of the campaign. As the Republicans' situation looks even more precarious at present than it did at any time in 2004, there is no telling what they will be willing to do in the closing months of the campaign to change the flow of public opinion.
Enthusiasm Gap Favors Democrats
A potential hold over from the 2006 election is the apparent enthusiasm gap, which could help Obama's cause. According to the latest measurements, Democratic voters remain far more enthusiastic about Barack Obama than Republicans are about John McCain. If this lack of enthusiasm translates into a drop in turnout, it could severely damage McCain's chances.
