August 9 Election Insider

Republican Retirements Could Lead to Democratic Gains.

Previous issues of the Election Insider have focused on the importance of extending the Democratic majorities in Congress. In today's political reality, incumbents rarely lose. However, open seats with no incumbent change parties much more frequently. The presence of scandal or outright retirement can create a rash of open seats and competitive races, which can determine which party controls Congress. As the 2008 congressional campaign takes shape, there are several Republican incumbents who potentially could retire, which would provide more opportunities for Democrats to expand their majorities in both the House and the Senate.

An open seat neutralizes the incumbency advantages of name recognition and fund-raising, which puts both candidates on a level playing field. In watershed elections such as those of 1974, 1994, and 2006, the presence of open seats has helped fuel the large seat change that either expanded one party's control over the House or helped throw that party out of power. In 1974, Democrats flipped 13 Republican open seats to Democratic control as part of the angry response to the Watergate scandal. In 1994, Republicans gobbled up 22 Democratic open seats on their way to sweeping Democrats out of power in Congress. In 2006, Democrats picked up eight open Republican seats, which provided more than half of the total necessary to gain control of the House. Of course not all open seats will automatically produce competitive races. A solid Republican or Democratic district will likely elect someone of that party despite the lack of an incumbent. However, the situation changes dramatically when the open district is considered marginally competitive. These marginal districts are considered competitive in that they could be wide open or either party might have a slight advantage. The graph below shows the percentage of marginal open seats that changed parties from 1994 to 2006.

As you can see, in comparison to normal competitive seats with an incumbent, these marginal open seats change hands far more frequently. which showcases the importance of potential retirements in potentially competitive districts.

Republican aspirations toward capturing the 16 seats necessary to retake control of the House would be significantly damaged by a large number of retirements. To date, there are several Republican members who may retire in the coming months, which could give Democrats an increased number of targets. Seven-term incumbent Ray LaHood (R-IL) has already announced that he will retire after this term, which could put his district in play for the first time in years. Other possible GOP retirees include former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Ralph Regula (R-OH), Bill Young (R-FL), Jo Ann Davis (R-VA), John McHugh (R-NY), Don Manzullo (R-IL), and Barbara Cubin (R-WY).

Another possible GOP retirement could have an effect on the power balance in the Senate. Longtime Senator John Warner from Virginia is said to be considering retirement, and if he were to retire, his seat would automatically be in play in 2008. The prospects for Democrats would improve greatly if popular former Governor Mark Warner were to enter the race, which could increase Democratic turnout and even have an effect on the presidential race in Virginia .

NCEC will be watching intently for GOP retirements in marginal districts, so we can pounce on any opportunity to a win a seat in Congress. The fireworks that defined 2006 are not likely to repeat in such a short time, which makes identifying competitive races all the more important. NCEC provides the most in-depth targeting available, to give Democrats in these marginal districts a real opportunity to win and expand our fragile majority.