August 29 Election Insider

Image of the GOP Languishes Under New Scandals

[ Editor's note: This article was written prior to senator Craig's announced resignation ]

Republicans have vigorously campaigned since 1994 on a platform of social morals, family values, and bringing accountability to Washington. In the months leading up to the 2006 election, scandal after scandal emerged, showcasing their paper-thin rhetoric. Those scandals played a large role in knocking the Republicans out of power in both the House and the Senate, by creating a political environment that was deadly for Republicans. As the 2008 election looms, Republicans haven't done themselves any favors, as several new scandals have emerged involving House members, senators, and the attorney general. On August 28 the most recent scandal broke, involving Senator Larry Craig (R-ID) and his admission to pleading guilty earlier this month to misdemeanor disorderly conduct charges stemming from his June arrest by an undercover police officer in a men's restroom at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Any hopes Republicans might have for regaining control of Congress hinge on shifting the political environment away from the Democrats, but as each new scandal arises, it becomes less likely that they will be able to.

The Senate race in Idaho was previously viewed as safely locked for the Republicans, as Democratic chances in statewide elections in Idaho have always been minimal. However, scandal can always blur the situation. Larry Craig, a third-term senator, was said to be considering retirement, which would create an open-seat contest in the upcoming election. Former Governor Jim Risch has indicated that he is interested in running for the Senate seat for the Republicans if Craig retires. Former Congressman Larry LaRocco has already announced his candidacy for the Democrats and had raised over $80,000 for the campaign through June 30. LaRocco was the last Democrat to hold the House seat in Idaho before he was unseated in 1994. Risch would be a difficult candidate to beat, but with the presence of scandal it will become necessary for Republicans to spend money in this race that they previously had slated for other close races, and as we saw in many races in 2006, there is no measuring the potential effect that a scandal can have on a race.

The day before the scandal involving Senator Larry Craig broke, Republican appointee Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigned amid allegations that he was involved in the firing of U.S attorneys for political reasons. The investigation into this case is ongoing and could potentially bring further charges. Although this situation has no direct influence on any particular race, it can contribute to a negative view of the Republican Party at a national level—the same negative view at a national level that was blatantly evident in the 2006 campaign.

Republicans are hoping to navigate their way through scandal on a variety of fronts, as scandal has reached GOP members in both the House and the Senate. In New Mexico, Senator Pete Domenici and Representative Heather Wilson (NM-01) are alleged to have put pressure on prosecutors to fast-track a possible indictment against Democrats leading up to the 2006 election in an attempt to shift public perception. In additionally to the attorney scandal, Wilson served on the House Page Board when pages were warned about former Congressman Mark Foley, which drew get criticism due to the board's inaction. Prior to the attorney scandal, Senator Domenici was considered a lock for reelection, but now he is receiving fund-raising stops from the president to bolster his campaign. Heather Wilson is a consistent target for Democrats and is sure to receive another strong challenge in 2008, having barely survived the last two elections.

Other scandals have caused House members to retire at the end of their term, such as Representative Rick Renzi (AZ-01), who decided not to pursue reelection in 2008 largely because of an ongoing investigation aimed at him. Renzi's district is competitive and represents a great pickup opportunity for Democrats. Another GOP House member dogged by corruption allegations is John Doolittle (CA-04), who also may retire rather than face another campaign. Doolittle won in 2006 by a mere 3 percent, and a Republican challenger for the nomination has already surfaced.

Senator David Vitter rounds out the list of Republicans plagued by scandal. Vitter recently admitted to having a long-term relationship with a prostitute related to the alleged D.C. madam. Vitter is not up for reelection until 2010, so he may dodge the scandal, but his actions further display a party that is out of control ethically.

Continued allegations, investigations, and resignations by Republicans can only foster the image of a corrupt party that can't be trusted to be in power. Democrats can do nothing but gain from Republicans' continued slipups. Four of the seats mentioned in the table above represent real opportunities for Democratic pickups.

In 2006, NCEC targeting and consultation helped Democrats to take advantage of Republican scandal. Through our help the campaigns were able to identify Democratic voters and the key swing voters that made victory possible. We will be there again in 2008 to help give Democrats in an extra advantage to capitalize on Republican mistakes. Our work is moving forward at an accelerated pace, so Democrats all over the country can pounce on any opportunity.