September 21 Election Insider

Real Senate Majority is Within our Grasp

Democrats have a heavy advantage when looking at the Senate in 2008, and the news gets better by the day. Strong Democratic candidates are emerging, and unbeatable Republicans are retiring. Over the past three weeks, races in New Hampshire , Nebraska , and Virginia have all shifted and become competitive races, which could present Democrats with an opportunity to take hold of the Senate for the foreseeable future. Republicans are scrambling into damage control mode, but with a little more than a year until Election Day, the next Democratic wave may be building.

Republicans have 22 seats to defend in 2008, in comparison to just 12 for Democrats; the numbers alone suggest a Democratic advantage, but the news coming from the campaign trail compounds this notion. Below is a rundown of news from the competitive Senate races across the country, this information is available on the new NCEC Candidate Center .

Battleground GOP Senate Races (Close)

Colorado : Democrat Mark Udall is blazing ahead with fund-raising as he ramps up his bid for the Senate. According to FEC data, Udall has raised more than $2.5 million for the campaign thus far and he plans on spending more than $10 million on the race. Democrats hope to maintain the momentum that they have generated in Colorado over the last three election cycles, and thus far Udall has to be considered a slight favorite. A September 9 poll from Hill Research Consultants, a Republican polling firm, shows Udall ahead of likely candidate Bob Schaffer by 5 percent (45%–40%). Given the large amount of Independents in Colorado , the meaning of these early polls is difficult to judge but early signs remain positive.

Maine : Susan Collins is one of the top-tier targets for Democrats in the Senate. She is a Republican in a state that leans heavily Democratic, leaving her vulnerable every time she is up for reelection. Collins has tried to plow a centrist path but has drawn fire for not supporting Democratic measures for troop withdrawal timetables in Iraq . Given the political environment, a centrist path on other issues aside from the war in Iraq may not be enough to save her seat. The Democrats have a strong candidate in Congressman Tom Allen (ME-01), who has vacated his seat to run against Collins. Both sides are already running at full speed in terms of fund-raising, as this race is sure to see some of the most money spent in this election cycle. The latest fund-raising disclosures show that Collins holds the typical incumbent advantage in terms of money but that Allen has more than $1.7 million cash on hand. The GOP will be willing to spend massive amounts of money to hold on to this seat, but this race is sure to be close.

Minnesota : Minnesota leans Democratic in every statewide election, but Senator Coleman has been able to forge a niche as a Republican with a moderate voting record; however, his support of the war in Iraq is a dangerous position for him. Coleman's approval and favorability ratings have consistently hovered at or below 50 percent, which is a sign of an incumbent in danger. Attorney Mike Ciresi and comedian/writer Al Franken are vying for the Democratic nomination. Ciresi commands more support from the party establishment, but Franken has an edge on name recognition, and given Minnesota 's recent history of electing celebrities, Franken's candidacy is for real. An August poll done by the DSCC showcased the bad position in which Coleman finds himself: according to the poll, only 37 percent of respondents would vote to reelect him while 49 percent would choose someone new.

Nebraska : On September 10, Senator Chuck Hagel announced that he is going to retire at the end of this term, which creates another competitive Senate race. Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey may run now that Hagel will retire. Kerrey would be seen as a strong candidate for the Democrats, with unbeatable name recognition that no other Democrat could challenge. In addition to serving as Nebraska 's senator, Kerrey also served as governor of the state from 1983 to 1987. Former Governor and current U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns entered the race this week for the GOP. A Kerrey–Johanns matchup would easily be seen as one of the most interesting of 2008. Another Republican, former House member and ex-mayor of Omaha Hal Daub has entered the race, which already includes state Attorney General Jim Bruning.

New Hampshire : Democrats jumped into the role of favorite when popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen entered the race to challenge Senator John Sununu. Shaheen is the candidate the Democrats have wanted all along, and her candidacy represents a major success for the DSCC. Early polls suggest that Shaheen is already ahead of the incumbent; a poll released in July gave her a double-digit lead over Sununu in a general election matchup. Democrats' chances to expand their majority in the Senate are substantially increased by Shaheen's candidacy. More recent polls have shown the race slightly closer, but anytime that a challenger starts the race in front of an incumbent, that is a strong sign that the incumbent is in serious trouble.

Oregon : The Senate race in Oregon became increasingly muddled when John Frohnmayer announced that he would run in 2008 as an Independent against Republican Gordon Smith. The Frohnmayer family is well-known in Oregon politics; Dave Frohnmayer, John's brother, is the former attorney general and current president of the University of Oregon . Frohnmayer's candidacy will potentially take votes from both parties, but the Independents in this state tend to identify with Democrats more than with Republicans. The Democrats have yet to settle on a candidate as state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and Portland activist Steve Novick have both announced their candidacies for the nomination. Smith remains vulnerable; according to a July 7–11, 2007, poll by Lake Research Partners, 53 percent of respondents would at least consider electing someone other than Smith.

A poll by Riley Research Associates from August 10–15, 2007, also demonstrates that Smith is in trouble. Only 38 percent of those polled indicated that they would vote for Smith right now, while 35 percent remained unsure and 19 percent were for Merkley, which is a positive sign this early in the campaign.

Virginia : Democrats received some great news on September 12 as popular former Governor Mark Warner announced that he would run for the open Senate seat in Virginia . Earlier in the month, longtime Senator John Warner announced his retirement at the end of the current term, which set an opportunity for a close Senate race. Democrats come into this contest brimming with confidence after Jim Webb's unexpected victory over former Senator George Allen in 2006. Now that Mark Warner has entered the race, Democrats are seen as the favorites to win this seat, given his widespread popularity. Northern Virginia will continue to be crucial, as it is the center of the Democratic base in the state. On the Republican side, former Governor Jim Gilmore and current Congressman Tom Davis are considering runs. An early poll shows the magnitude of Mark Warner's appeal as he is currently running way ahead of any of the perspective GOP nominees. According to the poll, Mark Warner would defeat Congressman Tom Davis by 35 percent, former Governor Jim Gilmore by 28 percent, and former Senator George Allen by 19 percent.

Battleground GOP Senate Races (Leaning)

Alaska : Ted Stevens would normally be seen as a safe incumbent, but due to recent allegations of corruption, the contest for this seat may become interesting. There is some speculation that the veteran senator might retire, but those rumors may prove inaccurate. Democrat Rocky Caldero has launched a campaign for the Democrats, but many are still courting popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich to run for the seat.

Stevens finds himself in increasingly troubled waters. According to the Anchorage Daily News , former oil services corporation executive Bill Allen testified in court on September 14 that his company — a state and federal contractor — spent more than $400,000 on bribes and unlawful gifts for various state legislators and U.S. Senator Ted Stevens (R). Allen, who previously pleaded guilty to federal extortion, conspiracy, and bribery charges, was testifying on behalf of the prosecution in a case against a former state legislator. During his testimony, Allen testified under oath that “he had company employees work several months on a remodeling project” at Stevens' Alaska home — without any cost to Stevens.

Kentucky : Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may become a significant target due to his newfound celebrity, as he has been forced to lead an unpopular Republican Senate delegation. A September 10–13 Research 2000 poll shows McConnell's job approval rating at just 47 percent. Anything below 50 percent is seen as a possible sign of vulnerability.

North Carolina : Democrats have yet to find a strong candidate to challenge Elizabeth Dole in 2008, and time to get started may be running short. Forsyth County Commissioner Ted Kaplan was the latest potential candidate to back away from the race. Other potential candidates, including Governor Mike Easley, Attorney General Roy Cooper, and U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, have all declined the offer to run. However, several Democratic Senate winners from 2006, including Jim Webb and Sherrod Brown, entered the race late, so there is still time to run a solid challenger.

New Mexico : Incumbent Senator Pete Domenici would normally be an unlikely target, but due to his alleged involvement in a potential scandal involving the firing of U.S Attorney David Iglesias, this race is now clearly on the radar. Domenici allegedly contacted Iglesias inquiring whether an ongoing investigation into a local Democrat would be completed before the 2006 election. Domenici has already acknowledged unethical contact with Iglesias and has since apologized, but he denies that he was applying pressure. Senator Domenici handily won reelection in 2002, with 65 percent of the vote, but the GOP knows that he may be vulnerable, having sent President Bush on recent fund-raising stops for Domenici. Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott has entered the race and has $400,000 cash on hand, but his campaign has yet to make a lot of noise.

Democrats flipped six Senate seats in 2006, which was an amazing accomplishment. The next cycle may present them with an opportunity to ensure control of the Senate for years to come. At least six of the races covered above have to be considered guaranteed competitive races. NCEC will produce vital precinct targeting that will allow Democratic campaigns to identify persuadable voters and get them to vote. Expanding Democratic power in the Senate is vital to our ability to pass the legislation over Republican obstructionism. NCEC is moving forward to prepare Democratic campaigns. Join us, please contribute.