Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Presidential Electoral College Tie Not Impossible
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
What if the Electoral College were to end in a tie at 269 electoral votes apiece? This is not an unrealistic election scenario. Therefore, the maintenance of a strong Democratic majority in the House could develop into the most important aspect of the 2008 campaign. The Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution says that, in the event of a tie, the presidency is decided by the vote of the members of the House of Representatives, and the vice presidency is determined by the Senate. A hard look at the electoral map, as it is shaping up in 2008, shows that the work done by the NCEC to protect and expand the Democratic congressional majority may make our 60th year our most important. It is true that each state's delegation would receive one vote, but that doesn't suggest that increasing the number of Democrats in each delegation is not important. As of right now, Democrats hold the majority in 27 state delegations as opposed to just 21 for the Republicans with two delegations tied. Maintaining this advantage could be paramount.
Electoral College Tie Scenario is Not Far-Fetched
The number of Electoral College votes needed to win is 270. But, what if each candidate wins states totaling 269 votes? While it seems improbable, only a few changes in the Electoral College vote could lead to exactly that conclusion. For example, if Barack Obama were to achieve his goal of carrying the new swing states of Colorado , and Virginia, where he has been holding small leads over the past couple of months, but loses in the traditional swing states of Florida, Michigan, and Ohio, then a tie vote becomes very possible. A tie scenario vote would also require Obama loses Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina, all competitive states that currently lean Republican. An average polls taken in these battleground states shows that a tie is possible. As the map below shows, Michigan and North Dakota would need to move to the McCain column for the race to end in a tie.
State |
Obama |
McCain |
Colorado |
45.3% |
45.0% |
Florida |
44.8% |
47.0% |
Iowa |
51.3% |
42.3% |
Indiana |
43.5% |
49.5% |
Michigan |
46.3% |
44.0% |
Minnesota |
49.3% |
42.3% |
Missouri |
42.0% |
50.0% |
Montana |
46.0% |
49.9% |
Nevada |
44.2% |
44.9% |
New Hampshire |
46.5% |
45.5% |
New Mexico |
47.3% |
43.0% |
North Carolina |
43.0% |
47.0% |
Ohio |
43.6% |
44.2% |
Oregon |
50.0% |
43.5% |
Pennsylvania |
47.3% |
42.8% |
Virginia |
46.0% |
46.0% |
Wisconsin |
47.3% |
41.3% |
The only other time in American history when the House of Representatives decided the presidential election was in 1824, when four different presidential candidates failed to win a plurality of electoral votes. In that year, the presidency was awarded to John Quincy Adams, a candidate who didn't win the most electoral votes in the general election, but won because of his popularity in the House. While this history is pre-modern, its lessons are applicable in 2008. Only a strong Democratic majority, large enough to withstand possible defections, could ensure that Barack Obama would win the presidency if it were decided by the House. Some members might feel obliged to vote consistently with the popular vote in their districts. In fact, when looking at the last two presidential elections, the defection factor becomes worrisome. Currently, there are 68 House Democrats that represent districts that voted for President Bush in 2000 or 2004. Conversely, there are only 16 House Republicans that represent districts that voted for either Al Gore or John Kerry. As the specter of a tie vote looms, NCEC is forced to think about every last seat to elect the largest Democratic House majority possible.
Voters in Swing States Could Swing the House Majority
The all-important “swing states” are more numerous this year than in the recent past. The presidential race in these states could have a profound effect on the size of the Democratic majority in the House. In nearly every state that has achieved NCEC's “battleground” or “swing state” status in the presidential election, there are competitive House races that, if won, could significantly expand the size of the Democratic majority. As of now, NCEC considers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin to be swing states in the presidential election. In these states, the NCEC can identify at least 34 competitive races. Of these races, 9 involve Democratic incumbents, and 25 are considered vulnerable Republican seats. From these states alone, the Democratic House majority could be significantly increased.
District |
Democratic Candidate |
Republican Candidate |
CO-04 |
Betsy Markey |
Marilyn Musgrave |
FL-08 |
Alan Grayson |
Ric Keller |
FL-13 |
Christine Jennings |
Vern Buchanan |
FL-16 |
Tim Mahoney* |
Tom Rooney |
FL-21 |
Raul Martinez |
Lincoln Diaz-Balart |
FL-24 |
Suzzane Kosmas |
Tom Feeney |
FL-25 |
Joe Garcia |
Mario Diaz-Balart |
IN-02 |
Joe Donnelly* |
Luke Puckett |
IN-09 |
Baron Hill* |
Mike Sodrell |
MI-07 |
Mark Schauer |
Tim Walberg |
MI-09 |
Gary Peters |
Joe Knollenberg |
MN-01 |
Tim Walz* |
Brian Davis |
MN-03 |
Ashwin Madia |
Erik Paulsen |
MO-06 |
Kay Barnes |
Sam Graves |
MO-09 |
Judy Baker |
Blaine Luetkemeyer |
NC-08 |
Larry Kissell |
Robin Hayes |
NH-01 |
Carol Shea-Porter* |
Jeb Bradley |
NM-01 |
Martin Heinrich |
Darren White |
NM-02 |
Harry Teague |
Ed Tinsley |
NV-02 |
Jill Derby |
Dean Heller |
NV-03 |
Dina Titus |
Jon Porter |
OH-01 |
Steve Driehaus |
Steve Chabot |
OH-02 |
Victoria Wulsin |
Jean Schmidt |
OH-07 |
Sharen Neuhardt |
Steve Austria |
OH-15 |
Mary Jo Kilroy |
Deborah Pryce |
OH-16 |
John Boccieri |
Kirk Schuring |
PA-06 |
Bob Roggio |
Jim Gerlach |
PA-08 |
Patrick Murphy* |
Tom Manion |
PA-10 |
Chris Carney* |
Chris Hackett |
PA-11 |
Paul Kanjorski* |
Lou Barletta |
VA-02 |
Glenn Nye |
Thelma Drake |
VA-10 |
Judy Feder |
Frank Wolfe |
VA-11 |
Gerry Connolly |
Keith Fimian |
WI-08 |
Steve Kagen* |
John Gard |
*Democratic Incumbent |
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