Presidential Electoral College Tie Not Impossible

As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.

What if the Electoral College were to end in a tie at 269 electoral votes apiece? This is not an unrealistic election scenario. Therefore, the maintenance of a strong Democratic majority in the House could develop into the most important aspect of the 2008 campaign. The Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution says that, in the event of a tie, the presidency is decided by the vote of the members of the House of Representatives, and the vice presidency is determined by the Senate. A hard look at the electoral map, as it is shaping up in 2008, shows that the work done by the NCEC to protect and expand the Democratic congressional majority may make our 60th year our most important. It is true that each state's delegation would receive one vote, but that doesn't suggest that increasing the number of Democrats in each delegation is not important. As of right now, Democrats hold the majority in 27 state delegations as opposed to just 21 for the Republicans with two delegations tied. Maintaining this advantage could be paramount.

Electoral College Tie Scenario is Not Far-Fetched

The number of Electoral College votes needed to win is 270. But, what if each candidate wins states totaling 269 votes? While it seems improbable, only a few changes in the Electoral College vote could lead to exactly that conclusion. For example, if Barack Obama were to achieve his goal of carrying the new swing states of Colorado , and Virginia, where he has been holding small leads over the past couple of months, but loses in the traditional swing states of Florida, Michigan, and Ohio, then a tie vote becomes very possible. A tie scenario vote would also require Obama loses Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina, all competitive states that currently lean Republican. An average polls taken in these battleground states shows that a tie is possible. As the map below shows, Michigan and North Dakota would need to move to the McCain column for the race to end in a tie.

The only other time in American history when the House of Representatives decided the presidential election was in 1824, when four different presidential candidates failed to win a plurality of electoral votes. In that year, the presidency was awarded to John Quincy Adams, a candidate who didn't win the most electoral votes in the general election, but won because of his popularity in the House. While this history is pre-modern, its lessons are applicable in 2008. Only a strong Democratic majority, large enough to withstand possible defections, could ensure that Barack Obama would win the presidency if it were decided by the House. Some members might feel obliged to vote consistently with the popular vote in their districts. In fact, when looking at the last two presidential elections, the defection factor becomes worrisome. Currently, there are 68 House Democrats that represent districts that voted for President Bush in 2000 or 2004. Conversely, there are only 16 House Republicans that represent districts that voted for either Al Gore or John Kerry. As the specter of a tie vote looms, NCEC is forced to think about every last seat to elect the largest Democratic House majority possible.

Voters in Swing States Could Swing the House Majority

The all-important “swing states” are more numerous this year than in the recent past. The presidential race in these states could have a profound effect on the size of the Democratic majority in the House. In nearly every state that has achieved NCEC's “battleground” or “swing state” status in the presidential election, there are competitive House races that, if won, could significantly expand the size of the Democratic majority. As of now, NCEC considers Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin to be swing states in the presidential election. In these states, the NCEC can identify at least 34 competitive races. Of these races, 9 involve Democratic incumbents, and 25 are considered vulnerable Republican seats. From these states alone, the Democratic House majority could be significantly increased.