The NCEC provides progressive campaigns with increasingly sophisticated campaign planning and analysis at no cost to them.

Top Races to Watch

The NCEC closely tracks candidate performance as part of its data and analysis operation. We have focused on the races we think will have the most impact on control of the US House.

The following list was last updated 2018-08-28:

District Democrat Republican
AR-02 Clarke Tucker ✔ French Hill*
AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran* ✔ Wendy Rogers
AZ-02† Ann Kirkpatrick ✔ Lea Marquez Peterson
CA-10 Josh Harder Jeff Denham*
CA-21 TJ Cox David Valadao*
CA-25 Katie Hill Steve Knight*
CA-39† Gil Cisneros ✔ Young Kim
CA-45 Katie Porter ✔ Mimi Walters*
CA-48 Harley Rouda Dana Rohrabacher*
CA-49† Mike Levin Diane Harkey
CO-06 Jason Crow ✔ Mike Coffman*
FL-18 Lauren Baer ✔ Brian Mast*
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell ✔ Carlos Curbelo*
IA-01 Abby Finkenauer Rod Blum*
IA-03 Cindy Axne David Young*
IL-06 Sean Casten ✔ Peter Roskam*
IL-12 Brendan Kelly Mike Bost*
KS-02† Paul Davis Steve Watkins
KS-03 Sharice Davids Kevin Yoder*
KY-06 Amy McGrath ✔ Andy Barr*
ME-02 Jared Golden ✔ Bruce Poliquin*
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin ✔ Mike Bishop*
MI-11† Haley Stevens ✔ Lena Epstein
MN-01† Dan Feehan Jim Hagedorn
MN-02 Angie Craig ✔ Jason Lewis*
MN-03 Dean Phillips Erik Paulsen*
MN-08† Joe Radinovich ✔ Pete Stauber
NE-02 Kara Eastman ✔ Don Bacon*
NV-03† Susie Lee ✔ Danny Tarkanian
NV-04† Steven Horsford ✔ Cresent Hardy
NH-01† Chris Pappas Eddie Edwards
NH-02 Annie Kuster* ✔ Steve Negron
NJ-03 Andy Kim ✔ Tom MacArthur*
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski Leonard Lance*
NJ-11† Mikie Sherrill Jay Webber
NM-02† Xochitl Torres Small ✔ Yvette Herrell
NY-11 Max Rose ✔ Dan Donovan*
NY-19 Antonio Delgado ✔ John Faso*
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi Claudia Tenney*
NY-24 Dana Balter ✔ John Katko*
NC-09† Dan McCready Mark Harris
NC-13 Kathy Manning ✔ Ted Budd*
OH-01 Aftab Pureval ✔ Steve Chabot*
PA-01 Scott Wallace ✔ Brian Fitzpatrick*
PA-07† Susan Wild Marty Nothstein
PA-08 Matt Cartwright* ✔ John Chrin
PA-17 Conor Lamb* ✔
(currently represents PA-14)
Keith Rothfus*
TX-07 Lizzie Pannill Fletcher John Culberson*
TX-23 Gina Ortiz Jones Will Hurd*
TX-32 Colin Allred Pete Sessions*
UT-04 Ben McAdams Mia Love*
VA-02 Elaine Luria Scott Taylor*
VA-07 Abigail Spanberger ✔ Dave Brat*
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton ✔ Barbara Comstock*
WA-03 Carolyn Long ✔ Jaime Herrera Beutler*
WA-05 Lisa Brown ✔ Cathy McMorris Rodgers*
WA-08† Kim Schrier ✔ Dino Rossi
* Incumbent Candidate
† Open Seat
✔ NCEC Supported Candidate

Democratic Performance Index

The NCEC’s Democratic Performance Index (DPI) is a fundamental measure on which campaigns base their decision-making, evaluate models, target precincts, and build paths to victory. DPI is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. We calculate DPI for every state at the precinct level—the most detailed level at which election results are recorded.

The strength of DPI is that it is so closely anchored to direct measurement of what actually happened. Even with the upsets of 2016, DPI proved to be robust and accurate predictor of candidate performance (see 2016 analysis):

“In the 30 most competitive House races—where we devoted most of our attention—the mean discrepancy between the pre-election Democratic Performance and the outcome was a closely-correlated 3.0 percentage points.”

General Election 2016: Democratic vote share for US House v. NCEC Performance Index

How Campaigns Use NCEC Data

NCEC data has been a cornerstone of progressive campaigns for decades, it can be used to plan many aspects of a campaign:

  • Candidate and surrogate scheduling
  • Voter contact activities (mail/phones/canvassing)
  • Voter registration drives
  • Determining polling universes
  • Get Out The Vote
  • Media market strategies

Candidates and campaign professionals report that our data remains the most easy to understand and user friendly in the progressive space. Moreover, it ensures that a campaign truly understands their district and gives them the tools they need to win.

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In 2016, Data Fundamentals Proved Accurate

The NCEC's Democratic Performance Index is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. It should be no surprise that, on average, observed party performance correlates with future party performance more strongly than any other single measure. According to CNN, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) has "...developed a new data
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