Citizen Involvement Reduces the Impact of Gerrymandering

Few voters are keenly aware of the complexities of redrawing district lines every ten years. But when redistricting enters the political conversation, there is widespread agreement that a less partisan element should be introduced into the process. One solution has been to establish commissions that include representatives of both parties, ...

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House Prospects Wane as Trump Consolidates Support

The question that will define the 2016 congressional election remains unchanged: Will it be a traditional election, where partisans of both parties overwhelmingly support the nominated presidential candidate (leading to moderate Democratic gains), or will defections and turnout aberrations create an environment for a Democratic wave? Recent polls and political ...

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November Forecast Improving for House Democrats

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While the public's attention remains fixated on the presidential primary, the congressional race continues to clarify. More than a year ago, the NCEC projected that Democratic gains in the U.S. House are likely to exceed 20 seats (see Feb. 6, 2015). Our projection remains that the House Democrats can expect ...

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Clinton Electability Faces Scrutiny

The argument that Hillary Clinton is the strongest general election candidate is seriously complicated by the latest Quinnipiac national poll, taken after the New Hampshire primary, between Feb. 10 and 15 (PDF download). Clinton trails four of the five Republican candidates, leading only Donald Trump with a tenuous 1 percent. ...

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House Democrats Expected to Gain Seats in 2016

Barely one month into the next cycle, some have determined that Republicans will retain control of the House in an election 22 months in the future. Recent articles appearing in the Washington Post and the respected Cook Report have predicted that Republicans are overwhelming favorites to retain control of the ...

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