Recent election coverage has focused substantial attention on whether or not we will see a wave election this fall. But as much as pundits love to draw conclusions from every poll, the reality is that indicators are contradictory and historically unreliable at this point in the election cycle. We’ve seen ...
READ MOREThis Year’s Legislative Special Elections Could Have Big Implications for November
While the media follows the dysfunction in the Trump White House, the biggest story of the year in the electoral world is the Democrats’ performance in state legislative contests across the country. Since January six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme—Democrats ...
READ MOREHigh turnout in Montana was not enough—but there is a silver lining
Last night's special election in Montana delivered on the hype, as Democrat Rob Quist ran a strong campaign coming within single digits of winning. The voter turnout on both sides was staggering for a special election, and while Quist lost, his improvement over standard Democratic Performance across the district portends ...
READ MOREExpect Democratic Gains in 2018—But Where?
It's understandable if many Democrats look at the election in 2018 with a degree of foreboding. In the last two midterm elections, they lost a combined total of 76 House seats and 15 Senate seats. But the emerging scandals in the Trump White House and a simple look at history ...
READ MOREGerrymandering Increasingly Defies the Will of Voters
Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting. Simply stated, those who are elected ...
READ MORE2016 Election Could Demonstrate Big Changes in Future Electorate
Hillary Clinton has the won the popular vote by a larger margin than Al Gore in the 2000 election. When all votes are tallied, her margin of victory is likely to exceed 1.5 million. Still, she lost the electoral college, and hopefully put to rest the persistent notion that changing ...
READ MOREHillary Clinton’s Urban Turnout Problem
On November 15, we released an article that highlighted the Democratic Party's failure in last week's election to gain traction in rural and small-town America. The effect of which stymied the party's prospects in the House of Representatives and continued a trend that deserves more attention going forward.
READ MOREMissed Opportunities Up and Down Ballot as Rural and Suburban Voters Buck Democrats
It will take weeks to fully digest the surprising results of last week's election. This is true at all levels of the ballot, where Democrats vastly underperformed. And not just in the presidential outcome: Democrats were held to a stunningly low two-seat pick up in US Senate races, and the ...
READ MOREEverything Depends on the Suburbs—Watch These Counties
Suburban districts have always been regarded as the battlegrounds in American politics. As demographic trends have created more diverse suburban areas lying just outside the densely populated urban corridors, exurban areas have become more competitive. In many cases, exurbs are the new suburbs of the 21st century. As the election ...
READ MOREExpect Democrats to Win 10 to 20 of these House Seats
In August we presented a number of congressional districts that could contribute to a wave election in 2016. The ensuing weeks have brought an increasingly close presidential contest and the congressional battleground has crystallized. Democrats need to win 30 seats in November for a new House majority. Right now, our ...
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