With nearly two dozen candidates competing for the Democratic nomination and a clear divide over impeachment of Donald Trump, the Democratic presidential primary election is looking to be a tumultuous affair. Despite this, a national path to victory is already taking shape. Benchmark data indicate that Democrats can repeat the success ...
READ MORESuburbs Remain Key to 2020 Democratic Majority
In 2020, Democratic House candidates face a more complex situation than they did in 2018. The Democratic party now faces competing priorities—while they look to win additional congressional districts that are trending Democratic (especially in Texas), they must also work to protect the multitude of freshman representatives who were elected ...
READ MOREDiversity Drives the New Democratic Majority
Examining all 435 congressional districts by the 2016 citizen voting age population (CVAP, 2012 – 2016 American Community Survey 5 year estimates) underscores how an expanded base contributed to the ascent of a new Democratic US House majority. To illustrate this, we ranked districts by their percentage of non-white CVAP, ...
READ MOREA Quick Look at the Maine Governor’s Race
The Maine Governor's race is difficult to decipher. Here are some quick points that affect the upcoming race: While Maine voters used the new ranked-choice voting system in the June gubernatorial primary, the Maine Supreme Court ruled that this system only be used for federal offices in the upcoming general ...
READ MOREThe Race for Governor of Oregon
The race for Governor of Oregon is unexpectedly close. Recent polls even cast it as a possible toss-up, though we’re not entirely sure of their reliability. At the end of July, Clout Research showed Democratic incumbent Kate Brown at 42 percent, and Republican State Representative Knute Buehler at 43 percent. ...
READ MORENotes on Arizona & Florida’s Primary Elections
Arizona and Florida held their primary elections this week on Tuesday, Aug. 28. Arizona (with 81 percent of precincts reporting) In Arizona, the most interesting contests were the Democratic and Republican primaries for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, as well as the Republican primary for US Senate: The overall turnout of ...
READ MOREWhat Ohio’s Special Election Means for 2018
Democrat Danny O'Connor sustained a heartbreaking defeat Tuesday night in the special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. The morning after the election, O’Connor’s deficit was 1,754 votes out of 202,521 ballots cast. There are provisional and other ballots to be counted, but it appears that the Republican victory will ...
READ MORETuesday’s elections—what to watch for in Ohio and elsewhere
There is one special election and four primary elections, of various significance, scheduled for Tuesday, Aug. 7. While a win in the special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is both important and plausible, a post-election analysis of the underlying trends will tell us more about what to expect this ...
READ MOREIf the Special Election in Ohio’s 12th is Close, Republicans are in Big Trouble
The Aug. 7 special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District—pitting Democrat Danny O’Connor against Republican Troy Balderson—will be closely watched. It is another chance to see if the Democrats can overperform in yet another special election, which at this point looks extremely likely. A Monmouth poll this week shows that ...
READ MOREWith or Without a Wave, Democrats Can Win the House
Recent election coverage has focused substantial attention on whether or not we will see a wave election this fall. But as much as pundits love to draw conclusions from every poll, the reality is that indicators are contradictory and historically unreliable at this point in the election cycle. We’ve seen ...
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