Trump Weaknesses Remain Despite Recent Polling

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week contains a few surprises in Trump's favor, but also reveals obstacles in the way of a his re-election, as well as indicators to shape Democrats’ strategy for maintaining control of Congress. Here’s what stands out most to us in the report: ...

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Suburbs Remain Key to 2020 Democratic Majority

In 2020, Democratic House candidates face a more complex situation than they did in 2018. The Democratic party now faces competing priorities—while they look to win additional congressional districts that are trending Democratic (especially in Texas), they must also work to protect the multitude of freshman representatives who were elected ...

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Diversity Drives the New Democratic Majority

Examining all 435 congressional districts by the 2016 citizen voting age population (CVAP, 2012 – 2016 American Community Survey 5 year estimates) underscores how an expanded base contributed to the ascent of a new Democratic US House majority. To illustrate this, we ranked districts by their percentage of non-white CVAP, ...

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A Quick Look at the Maine Governor’s Race

The Maine Governor's race is difficult to decipher. Here are some quick points that affect the upcoming race: While Maine voters used the new ranked-choice voting system in the June gubernatorial primary, the Maine Supreme Court ruled that this system only be used for federal offices in the upcoming general ...

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The Race for Governor of Oregon

The race for Governor of Oregon is unexpectedly close. Recent polls even cast it as a possible toss-up, though we’re not entirely sure of their reliability. At the end of July, Clout Research showed Democratic incumbent Kate Brown at 42 percent, and Republican State Representative Knute Buehler at 43 percent. ...

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Notes on Arizona & Florida’s Primary Elections

Arizona and Florida held their primary elections this week on Tuesday, Aug. 28. Arizona (with 81 percent of precincts reporting) In Arizona, the most interesting contests were the Democratic and Republican primaries for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, as well as the Republican primary for US Senate: The overall turnout of ...

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What Ohio’s Special Election Means for 2018

Democrat Danny O'Connor sustained a heartbreaking defeat Tuesday night in the special election for Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. The morning after the election, O’Connor’s deficit was 1,754 votes out of 202,521 ballots cast. There are provisional and other ballots to be counted, but it appears that the Republican victory will ...

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