Revisited: Is this a Wave?

In 2017, we analyzed the core indicators of seat change in a midterm election—presidential approval, voter enthusiasm, direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot. At the time, these indicators painted a muddled picture of American political attitudes but showed reason for Democratic optimism. Now just six weeks from ...

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7 Pickup Opportunities for Democrats in California

A Democratic wave in 2018 will depend on results from California, which boasts seven competitive congressional contests. In 2016, Democrats failed to gain any seats here despite Hillary Clinton’s more than 30-point victory margin. There are several districts that make for promising Democratic opportunities this cycle, especially given a couple ...

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US Senate 2018 Rundown of Vulnerable Democrats

Florida: Longtime incumbent Senator Bill Nelson is facing a tough reelection campaign, especially now that Governor Rick Scott has officially entered the race. Recent polls have shown Nelson clinging to a single-digit lead over Scott in a head-to-head matchup. Donald Trump’s popularity may loom large over this competitive state, because ...

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US Senate 2018 Democratic Targets

From the beginning of the election cycle, it was widely assumed that the Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada were the only two likely Democratic targets this fall. But the retirement of Senator Bob Corker and the candidacy of former governor Phil Bredesen has created an opportunity for the Democrats ...

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Strong Economy Could Help Republicans in 2018

With less than six months before the election, the Democrats are benefiting from a positive political environment. Since January, six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme—Democrats are over performing. In all six contests, the winning Democrat exceeded the NCEC’s Democratic Performance ...

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More Evidence of a Coming Wave

This week's special elections in Arizona and New York offer fresh evidence of Democratic momentum as November approaches. In all three contests, the Democrats exceeded historical performance—continuing a steady trend that started at the beginning of 2017. Democrats Competitive in Arizona The special election in Arizona’s 8th District was decided ...

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Conor Lamb’s Victory by the Numbers and Lessons for the Future

Conor Lamb's victory in this week's special election holds several important lessons for the upcoming general election. Again suburban voters emerged as the key voting bloc for Democrats, and the massive turnout in Allegheny County provides a fresh blueprint to follow. The NCEC provided campaign planning and analytics to the ...

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The Texas Primary Paints a Muddled Picture for the General Election

Attention has focused on Texas this year, following Hillary Clinton’s competitive statewide performance there in 2016. A number of congressional Republican retirements and excitement surrounding Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign (against incumbent Ted Cruz) have led to increasing optimism among Democrats. This week’s primary drew a strong overall turnout, which on ...

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New Census Estimates Forecast Movement of Congressional Seats

The U. S. Census Bureau’s latest state population estimates were released in December. These numbers demonstrate the continuing trend of a population shift away from the Northeast and Midwest and towards the South and West. Not surprisingly, the states with the largest population gains (in raw numbers) from July 2016 to July ...

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