Biden Surge and Trump Failures Expand Electoral Map

The November 2020 general election is fast approaching, and Democrats now have a clear lead in 18 states. This tranche provides the presumptive nominee Joe Biden with a base of 212 electoral votes—58 short of the required 270. Four more states—Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire—with 36 electoral votes are also leaning in favor of the former Vice President. A potential haul of 248 electoral votes means the Democrats only need 22 more to clinch a victory. There are several plausible ways to overcome this deficit, and the NCEC predicts that Biden can finish with at least 296 electoral votes and has a possible cap of 415 electoral votes.

Map of the US showing states that support Joe Biden, and their electoral vote totals.

Some combination of these 87 toss-up electoral votes, combined with the base described above, can yield the required 270 or more:

StateElectoral Votes
North Carolina15
Maine 2nd Cong. Dist.1
Nebraska 2nd Cong. Dist.1

Additional Notes

  • Polls now show Joe Biden leading in every one of these states, with the possible exception of Wisconsin.
  • Biden leads in all Pennsylvania polling, meaning it is on the cusp of a Lean Democratic rating.

Winning Scenarios

  • Adding Florida alone lifts Biden to 277 electoral votes.
  • Pennsylvania, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District add up to exactly 270 electoral votes.
  • Winning Pennsylvania and any one of the other four states gives Biden between 278 and 297 electoral votes, clearly exceeding the total necessary to win.