Democrats are poised to regain control of the US Senate in 2016. The ongoing implosion of the Trump presidential campaign has complicated the reelection prospects of several Republicans, especially those in Democratic leaning states. But maintaining control in 2018 and beyond will be increasingly difficult. Democrats need 5 seats to ...
READ MOREYes, the House is in Play
All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with ...
READ MORECitizen Involvement Reduces the Impact of Gerrymandering
Few voters are keenly aware of the complexities of redrawing district lines every ten years. But when redistricting enters the political conversation, there is widespread agreement that a less partisan element should be introduced into the process. One solution has been to establish commissions that include representatives of both parties, ...
READ MOREWhy the Numbers Show Trump’s Path to Victory is Unlikely
Democrats have won four of the last six presidential elections. Additionally, the Democratic nominee won the popular vote by 0.6 percentage points in 2000. That majority was not enough, however, to prevent the first election of Republican George W. Bush, who secured 271 of 538 electoral votes. From 2000 to ...
READ MOREHouse Prospects Wane as Trump Consolidates Support
The question that will define the 2016 congressional election remains unchanged: Will it be a traditional election, where partisans of both parties overwhelmingly support the nominated presidential candidate (leading to moderate Democratic gains), or will defections and turnout aberrations create an environment for a Democratic wave? Recent polls and political ...
READ MORETrump Thinks He Can Win Ohio, He Might Be Right
The close margin in Kentucky's May 18 Democratic primary underscores some of Hillary Clinton's potential vulnerabilities in the general election (which we raised earlier, after the Indiana Primary). Overall, the race in Kentucky was amazingly close, especially considering how well Clinton performed in Lexington, home of the University of Kentucky. ...
READ MOREThe Roadmap to a New Democratic House Majority
Earlier this year, the NCEC went on the record with an initial projection of a Democratic pickup of 12 to 15 seats this November. With more than six months left before the election, this remains the most likely outcome and many analysts are wondering what a Democratic wave would look ...
READ MORELessons From 2006 and the State of Democratic Candidate Recruitment
The possibility of a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives has become a hot topic of discourse recently, particularly due to the down-ballot implications of a Donald Trump nomination for president. We covered the impact of a Trump nomination in a previous article (see Mar. 24, 2016). Of course, ...
READ MORETrump Nomination Puts Suburban House Districts in Play
As Trump has won additional contests in every region of the country, many commentators have openly wondered what impact (whether good or bad) a Trump candidacy will have on the Republican ticket down ballot. When digging into the results of his recent victories, it becomes clear that a Trump candidacy ...
READ MORENovember Forecast Improving for House Democrats
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While the public's attention remains fixated on the presidential primary, the congressional race continues to clarify. More than a year ago, the NCEC projected that Democratic gains in the U.S. House are likely to exceed 20 seats (see Feb. 6, 2015). Our projection remains that the House Democrats can expect ...
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